- Iran Told to Make Deal by Dawn With Talks Set to Miss Deadline. World powers warned Iran that they’re ready to quit nuclear talks on Wednesday even if there’s no agreement, according to a participant, as the approach of a deadline led to brinkmanship on both sides. While negotiators have agreed to continue past midnight, breaking with the official timetable, the talks won’t be extended beyond April 1, said a diplomat from one of the six countries negotiating with Iran, speaking on condition of not being identified in line with protocol. The European foreign ministers intend to leave the Swiss city of Lausanne on Wednesday morning regardless of the outcome, the diplomat said.
- How Could the Bond Market React to a Greek Exit? (video)
- China’s Big Stock Market Rally Is Being Fueled by High-School Dropouts. Everyone is a trader now. There’s a story that Joseph Kennedy sold his stocks on the cusp of the Great Crash of 1929 after a shoe shine boy shared trading tips with him. If even the shoe polisher is buying stocks, he reasoned, the market must be riding for a fall. New data from the China Household Finance Survey, a large-scale survey of household income and assets headed by Professor Li Gan of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, provides fresh insights into who has been driving the recent rally in China’s markets. It is not reassuring. Gan’s survey, which was conducted at the end of 2014 and covers some 4,000 households across the country, finds that the biggest new investors in China’s equity markets have below a high school education and relatively low levels of asset ownership.
- China Enters Stock Frenzy as Rookie Traders Open Record Accounts. To get a sense of the frenzy in China’s world-beating equity market, consider this: In a two-week span last month, the rally lured 2.8 million rookie stock pickers, almost the equivalent of Chicago’s entire population. The number of new equity accounts surged to a record during the two weeks ended March 27, five times the average of the past year, data from China Securities Depository and Clearing Co. showed on Tuesday. About 4 million were opened in March, enough for every person in Los Angeles. More than two-thirds of new investors have never attended or graduated from high school, according to a survey by China’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. Signs of inexperienced investors’ growing influence on the $6.5 trillion market have already shown up in the outperformance of China’s equivalent of penny stocks and a jump in share-price volatility to the highest level in five years. While fresh capital may feed market momentum as the government steps up efforts to support economic growth, foreign money managers have been selling shares on concern the gains are overdone.
- Asian Stocks Sink With U.S. Futures After Quarterly Gains. Asian stocks slid with U.S. index futures, and the dollar retreated against most peers. Oil extended losses as negotiators near an accord that could see extra Iranian crude adding to a global glut. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped a fifth day, losing 0.2 percent by 10:58 a.m. in Tokyo as Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures tumbled 0.8 percent after the U.S. gauge capped its longest run of quarterly gains since 1998. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index weakened 0.2 percent as the yen and euro climbed 0.4 percent. Oil in New York fell after a third straight quarterly decline. Gold rose for the first time in four days.
- Slump in S&P 500 Futures Leaves Investors Searching for Triggers. U.S. equity-index futures lurched lower on elevated volume as investors struggled to pinpoint a trigger for the selling. E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in June slumped as much as 1.3 percent, before paring losses to 0.8 percent as of 12:03 p.m. in Tokyo. Selling increased after the contract slid below its average price over the past 100 days, with volume more than three times higher than the five-day average for this time of the day. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.8 percent.
- The Saudis Are Losing Their Lock on Asian Oil Sales. Ships carrying oil from Mexico docked in South Korea this year for the first time in more than two decades as the global fight for market share intensifies. Latin American producers are providing increasing amounts of heavy crude to bargain-hungry Asian refiners in a challenge to Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter and the region’s dominant supplier.
- Iron Ore’s 10-Year Low Not Slowing China Production Push. To understand why iron ore prices have dropped to a 10-year low, look no further than a $10 billion mine being developed by China’s state-owned Citic Ltd. on Australia’s remote northwest coast. The Sino Iron project, the world’s costliest mine, has been called a “disaster” by critics. It began shipping iron ore in December 2013, about four years later than planned. Now, even with prices at their lowest level in 10 years, Citic is adding four production lines at the project, a plan that could pump millions of tons of ore into an already saturated market.
- Iran Nuclear Talks Miss Deadline. U.S. says enough progress made to merit staying until Wednesday. Nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers crashed through another deadline on Tuesday, casting doubt about whether the two sides can reach a final deal to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. There were some signs of progress in the early morning hours of Wednesday, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying the sides reached agreement in principle on a framework outlining elements of a final nuclear deal...
- Wal-Mart Ratchets Up Pressure on Suppliers to Cut Prices. Retailer urges them to pull back on joint-marketing efforts to bring cost down. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is increasing the pressure on suppliers to cut the cost of their products, in an effort to regain the mantle of low-price leader and turn around its sluggish U.S. sales.
- Hillary Obstructs Congress. She erased emails after the Benghazi probe wanted to see them. If the House panel investigating Benghazi really wants to get a look at Hillary Clinton’s emails, perhaps it should subpoena the Chinese military. Beijing—which may have hacked the private server she used to send official email as Secretary of State—is likely to be more cooperative than are Mrs. Clinton and her stonewall specialists now reprising their roles from the 1990s.
- Think tank tallies 64 terror plots targeting American homeland since 9/11. The frightening plot to kill 150 National Guard members that unraveled last week when FBI agents nabbed two Chicago-area cousins was the 64th case since 9/11 of Islamist terrorists plotting to strike on American soil, according to a new report that warns the radicalizing influence of ISIS must be dealt with in the U.S. and abroad.
- Abewrongics: Nikkei/USDJPY Tankin' After Terrible Tankan. (graph)
- Gold In Fed Vault Drops Under 6,000 Tons For The First Time, After 10th Consecutive Month Of Redemptions.
- Ugly Month/Quarter Ends With Corn Holed, Stocks Sold, Bonds "Good As Gold". (graph)
- Crude Pops On "No Nuke Deal", Then Pump'n'Dumps On Bigger Than Expected Inventory Build. (graph)
- Why Weeks After The ECB QE Started Many Are Already Calling For Its Taper.
- Money Printing Deja Vu - German Inflation Is Surging (Again). (graph)
- China Builds $6 Million Bridge To Nowhere. (pic)
- OECD Economic Review Chair Warns, Central Bankers "Are Doing More Harm Than Good, Policy Must Be Reversed".
- World Inflation Falls To A New 5-Year Low. (graph)
- San Francisco real estate has gotten so crazy that this startup founder was offered stock options for his house.
- The US is restoring military aid to Egypt that its withheld since 2013.
- Spot The Odd One Out. (graph)
- The GoDaddy IPO is looking hotter than expected.
- REPORT: There's a 'Google(GOOG) tax' in Australia's upcoming budget.
- OUTRAGEOUS: The stock market is rewarding companies that have bad news.
- None of note
- Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.75 +.25 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 60.0 -.5 basis point.
- S&P 500 futures -.82%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.98%.
Earnings of Note
8:15 am EST
- The ADP Employment Change for March is estimated to rise to 225K versus 212K in February.
- Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI for March is estimated at 55.3 versus a prior estimate of 55.3.
- Construction Spending for February is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -1.1% decline in January.
- ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 52.5 versus 52.9 in February.
- ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 38.0 versus 35.0 in February.
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +4,181,250 barrels versus a +8,170,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -862,500 barrels versus a -2,014,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -12,500 barrels versus a -34,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, refinery utilization is estimated to rise by +.75% versus a +.9% gain the prior week.
- Wards Total Vehicle Sales for March are estimated to rise to 16.9M versus 16.16M in February.
- None of note
- The Fed's Williams speaking, Eurozone PMI, China Manufacturing PMI, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the (WMT) strategic update could also impact trading today.