Sunday, February 26, 2017

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • U.K.'s May Said to Be Ready for Lords to Rewrite Brexit Bill. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government is setting aside time for a Parliamentary battle to overturn changes she fears could be made to her draft Brexit law when it’s debated in the House of Lords this week. May and her team demand that unelected legislators in the upper house of Parliament not rewrite the 137-word European Union withdrawal bill while scrutinizing it. The premier needs Parliament to approve the law so she can start the formal Brexit process by invoking Article 50 of the EU treaty by the end of March.
  • Deutsche Bank Cuts 2016 Bonus Pool by Almost 80%, FAS Reports. Deutsche Bank AG cut its bonus pool for 2016 by almost 80 percent, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung reported, a figure unmatched in the bank’s recent history as it tries to counteract the impact of low interest rates and legal expenses. Germany’s largest lender is reducing the payments with an eye toward shareholders and is aware it will be “frustrating” for employees, Chief Administrative Officer Karl von Rohr told the German Sunday newspaper. The measures will affect about a quarter of the 100,000 staff. Some workers in key positions -- about 5,000 in all -- will get a special long-term incentive tied to the bank’s performance and paid out after as long as six years, von Rohr said.
  • Asian Stocks Drop, Yen Advances Before Trump Speech. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.4 percent, after advancing 0.5 percent last week. Japan’s Topix dropped 0.9 percent, retreating for a third day. The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.3 percent in Sydney while the S&P/NZX 50 rose 0.1 percent.
Wall Street Journal: 
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 25.25 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.58 +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (AMT)/1.34
  • (JKS)/.52
  • (BID)/1.17
  • (ESV)/.06
  • (HTZ)/-.47
  • (PCLN)/14.17
  • (THC)/.22
  • (WDAY)/-.01 
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for January are estimated to rise +1.6% versus a -.5% decline in December. 
  • Durables Ex Transports for January are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in December.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for January is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in December.  
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for January are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.6% gain in December.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for February is estimated to rise to 19.4 versus 22.1 in January.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Industrial Production report, Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, German Retail Sales report, Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom conference, Mobile World Congress and the JMP Securities Tech conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as oil gains, economic optimism and tax reform hopes offset profit-taking, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst and yen strength. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Trump Administration Makes Its First Move to Build Border Wall. President Donald Trump’s administration is soliciting ideas from contractors on how to build its promised wall between the U.S. and Mexico, a first tangible step toward delivering on the president’s signature campaign promise to curb unauthorized immigration. U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued a preliminary request for proposals Friday, saying it plans to release a formal solicitation around March 6 “for the design and build of several prototype wall structures in the vicinity of the United States border with Mexico.”
  • Retailers Push Alternatives in a Bid to Kill Border-Adjusted Tax. U.S. retailers are working with lawmakers in the House and Senate to craft alternatives to a proposed tax on imported goods that they say will raise prices for consumers. “We’re in the process of working with the Hill to give a couple of different alternatives to what we think would be a regressive tax,” J.C. Penney Co. Chief Executive Officer Marvin Ellison said Friday in an interview.
Wall Street Journal: 
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (RIG), (GPN), (AXTA) and (TV).
  • Had bearish commentary on (HOG).
Zero Hedge:
CBS News:

Friday, February 24, 2017

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 2,358.82 +.51%*
 photo bbb_zpsjy4vr9ht.png

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*


Indices
  • S&P 500 2,358.82 +.51%
  • DJIA 20,751.50 +.69%
  • NASDAQ 5,827.64 +.22%
  • Russell 2000 1,392.64 -.52%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 37.67 -1.42%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 120.41 -1.10%
  • Wilshire 5000 24,497.20 +.39%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,130.88 +.61%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,142.09 +.30%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 566.03 +1.92%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3077 +.59%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,352.95 +.94%
  • Transports 9,385.33 -.96%
  • Utilities 697.82 +4.07%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 91.79 -3.22%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 38.55 -.03%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,183.13 +.11%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 999.08 +.43%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 283,689 +.35%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 764 -79
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 42.11 +104.52%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 508,456 +6.6%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,183,943 -.33%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -18.95%
  • OEX Put/Call 3.81 +888.24%
  • ISE Sentiment 92.0 +5.75%
  • NYSE Arms 1.58 +21.7%
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.55 -.43%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.37 +2.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.41 +.58%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.58 -2.04%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,836.74 +.70%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.680 Trillion +.19%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.101 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 38.5 +16.2%
  • AAII % Bears 32.3 -.2%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 191.08 -.96%
  • Crude Oil 53.99 +.99%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 151.33 -.56%
  • Natural Gas 2.67 -7.84%
  • Heating Oil 164.03 +.73%
  • Gold 1,257.90 +1.44%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 178.76 -.71%
  • Copper 267.20 -1.42%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 250.0 USD/Ton -3.85%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 90.50 USD/Ton +.14%
  • Lumber 368.70 +1.60%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,171.83 -2.21%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.4% unch.
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +10.5% -60.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0798 +5.23%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 132.86 +.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.90 -8.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 70.20 +28.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.30 +4.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 60.0% chance of no change 40.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/15
  • US Dollar Index 101.08 +.18%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,568.15 +.68%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.64 -1.08%
  • Yield Curve 118.0 -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.32% -10.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.430 Trillion +.31%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.59 -9.69%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 390.0 -3.50%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.67 +3.0%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 25.18 -7.1%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.18 -1.88%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.97 -4.13%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 601.39 unch.
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 169.57 -6.79%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 134.91 +.23%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.02% unch.
  • TED Spread 55.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 36.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.75 -2.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.79 -2.07%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 356.0 -5.8%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 94.59 +2.45%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 220.28 -3.21%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 140.0 +1.0 basis point
  • M1 Money Supply $3.364 Trillion +.87%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 967.20 +.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 241,000 -4,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.16% +1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 371.50 -1.98%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48.0 -.1 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.9% +10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.29/gallon unch.
  • Baltic Dry Index 856.0 +15.5%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 815.46 -3.54%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 -18.75%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 267,503 +1.04%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +.6%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -.7%
Leading Sectors
  • Hospitals +8.6%
  • Utilities +4.0%
  • Alt Energy +2.4%
  • Medical Equipment +2.2%
  • Homebuilders +2.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Papers -2.3% 
  • Airlines -2.6%
  • Construction -2.7%
  • Steel -4.1%
  • Gold & Silver -4.9%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (28)
  • TELL, VSAR, LNTH, TROX, SQ, COHU, PLKI, ANET, LMOS, DGI, UCTT, LL, HAWK, VMI, RAVN, TTD, FSLR, WIRE, CGNX, NRCIA, HSNI, EXAS, ROG, KHC, TRUE, AMN, CCN and GBT
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (27)
  • SSNI, LMAT, CPB, TREX, CAR, DENN, CVG, TRIP, MATX, OUT, NLS, AAN, PZZA, DIN, WAB, JACK, ARRS, EME, PI, TXRH, NUS, GTLS, LB, CIR, AMPH, ORC and AMRI
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change