S&P 500+.07%
NASDAQ+.05%
Leading/Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders+1.58%
Drugs+.7%
Gaming+.68%
Airlines-2.93%
Disk Drives-2.78%
HMO's-1.99%
After-Hours Movers
ERES+5.0% Earnings exceeded estimates...raised guidance.
IVIL+15% Earnings exceeded estimates...raised guidance.
WEBX+7.3% Earnings exceeded estimates..raised guidance.
CIEN-13.6% lowers earnings guidance.
TRDO-9.3% Earnings didn't meet expectations...lowered guidance.
CSCO-4.2% Earnings exceeded expectations but didn't meet whisper numbers...guidance was conservative.
After-Hours News
Major Indices were little changed Tues. The bears had plenty of reasons to push stocks lower, yet stocks held firm. After the close, US banks reported an increase in demand for business loans for the first time in 4 years. The most important reasons for the increase were greater customer investment in plant and equipment and increased customer needs to finance accounts and inventories.
Bottom Line: Tech will likely come under pressure tomorrow on continued profit-taking. Cisco's quarter was good, but likely not good enough to justify its current valuation. CIEN will also result in a re-evaluation of the notion that all networking companies are benefiting from the current environment. As I stated earlier in the day, I want to see the market's reaction to the CSCO quarter before initiating new positions. As of right now it looks to be negative. I did not trade today and the portfolio finished down a bit. I am still market neutral and looking to trade tomorrow.
Tuesday, February 03, 2004
Mid-day Update
S&P 500+.05%
NASDAQ+21%
Leading/Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders+1.64%
Retail+.87%
Restaurants+.69%
Disk Drives-1.73%
HMO's-1.51%
Airlines-2.05%
Market Movers
SINA,SOHU,NTES,CHINA down on SOHU earnings guidance...instant messaging was weak
CHTR down on "Heard on the Street" column stating relationship with Paul Allen deteriorating..financial troubles
HUM down on earnings results and analyst's lowered estimates
TBL up on strong earnings report...Asian sales strong
AMZN weak on volume...at 200 day moving avg...can't find any reason...doesn't bode well for net stocks
SNDK down on comments by CFO at Thomas Weisel conference that flash prices will drop last half of yr
ACH,BYH,SNP up as Chinese cyclicals find technical support
INTC up on Bear Stearns comments about semi sector
Other Movers
Crude Oil-1.2%
Natural Gas+1.36%
US Dollar Index-.66%
Mid-Day News
US senate offices close on Ricin detection.
Pakistan's top nuclear scientist said President Musharraf knew he was helping N.Korea prepare facilities
to make weapons-grade uranium.
US budget doubles anti-terror funds to cities.
US equities quiet waiting for CSCO earnings after close...CSCO estimates are for $.17..whisper is $.20.
BOTTOM LINE: The Markets are surprisingly strong today given the late-day sell-off yesterday and overnight news. I haven't made any trades. My portfolio is basically flat on the day. Technicals are starting to weaken a bit. I will closely watch the final hour and the markets reaction to a strong CSCO report. I will then add a couple of new positions, but will not go net long or short more than 20% as I think we are still correcting.
NASDAQ+21%
Leading/Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders+1.64%
Retail+.87%
Restaurants+.69%
Disk Drives-1.73%
HMO's-1.51%
Airlines-2.05%
Market Movers
SINA,SOHU,NTES,CHINA down on SOHU earnings guidance...instant messaging was weak
CHTR down on "Heard on the Street" column stating relationship with Paul Allen deteriorating..financial troubles
HUM down on earnings results and analyst's lowered estimates
TBL up on strong earnings report...Asian sales strong
AMZN weak on volume...at 200 day moving avg...can't find any reason...doesn't bode well for net stocks
SNDK down on comments by CFO at Thomas Weisel conference that flash prices will drop last half of yr
ACH,BYH,SNP up as Chinese cyclicals find technical support
INTC up on Bear Stearns comments about semi sector
Other Movers
Crude Oil-1.2%
Natural Gas+1.36%
US Dollar Index-.66%
Mid-Day News
US senate offices close on Ricin detection.
Pakistan's top nuclear scientist said President Musharraf knew he was helping N.Korea prepare facilities
to make weapons-grade uranium.
US budget doubles anti-terror funds to cities.
US equities quiet waiting for CSCO earnings after close...CSCO estimates are for $.17..whisper is $.20.
BOTTOM LINE: The Markets are surprisingly strong today given the late-day sell-off yesterday and overnight news. I haven't made any trades. My portfolio is basically flat on the day. Technicals are starting to weaken a bit. I will closely watch the final hour and the markets reaction to a strong CSCO report. I will then add a couple of new positions, but will not go net long or short more than 20% as I think we are still correcting.
Monday, February 02, 2004
Tuesday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
ASYT/-.22
AVP/1.04
CSCO/.17
CECO/.47
EMR/.57
DIOD/.22
HCA/.60
SINA
TYC/.32
ZIXI/-.23
Economic Data
Auto Sales/Total Sales estimated at 16.8M vs. 18.0 last month
Market Movers
See After-Hours below
AFL up on earnings release...new premium sales in 4th $345M...best in company's history
PFE won FDA approval for a new drug combining Lipitor and Norvasc
Late-night News
Ricin, a poisonous substance, was found in the mailroom of the U.S. Senate building.
Asian bird flu death total hits 12.
North Korea agrees to nuclear talks on Feb. 25.
Janet Jackson admitted Super Bowl stunt was planned
Tradesports.com is projecting an 81% chance of Edwards winning South Carolina primary...Kerry 21%
Tradesports.com is projecting a 94% chance of Kerry winning Arizona...Edwards 3%
Tradesports.com is projecting a 50% chance of Clark winning Oklahoma...Kerry 49%...Edwards 5%
Tradesports.com is projecting a 97% chance of Kerry winning Missouri...Clark 2%
Asian markets are down 1-2% on avg.
S&P 500 indicated down .1%
NASDAQ indicated down .2%
Bottom Line: Tomorrow will most likely be negative on terror fears, Asian market weakness, bird flu, and today's late day sell-off. I may look to add a short or 2 depending on the how we open.
Company/Estimate
ASYT/-.22
AVP/1.04
CSCO/.17
CECO/.47
EMR/.57
DIOD/.22
HCA/.60
SINA
TYC/.32
ZIXI/-.23
Economic Data
Auto Sales/Total Sales estimated at 16.8M vs. 18.0 last month
Market Movers
See After-Hours below
AFL up on earnings release...new premium sales in 4th $345M...best in company's history
PFE won FDA approval for a new drug combining Lipitor and Norvasc
Late-night News
Ricin, a poisonous substance, was found in the mailroom of the U.S. Senate building.
Asian bird flu death total hits 12.
North Korea agrees to nuclear talks on Feb. 25.
Janet Jackson admitted Super Bowl stunt was planned
Tradesports.com is projecting an 81% chance of Edwards winning South Carolina primary...Kerry 21%
Tradesports.com is projecting a 94% chance of Kerry winning Arizona...Edwards 3%
Tradesports.com is projecting a 50% chance of Clark winning Oklahoma...Kerry 49%...Edwards 5%
Tradesports.com is projecting a 97% chance of Kerry winning Missouri...Clark 2%
Asian markets are down 1-2% on avg.
S&P 500 indicated down .1%
NASDAQ indicated down .2%
Bottom Line: Tomorrow will most likely be negative on terror fears, Asian market weakness, bird flu, and today's late day sell-off. I may look to add a short or 2 depending on the how we open.
Monday Close
S&P 500+.37%
NASDAQ-.15%
Leading/Lagging Sectors
Telecom+2.14%
Broadcasting+1.78%
Biotech+1.53%
Airlines-1.88%
Semis-1.63%
Iron/Steel-1.43%
Market Movers
ACS down on Florida contract difficulties
ANDW up on strong earnings report
RDWR down on earnings report that just met expectations
NT,SUNW,CSCO up on anticipation of strong corp. spending
Commodity Movers
Crude Oil+5.6%
Natural Gas+3.02%
Gold unchanged.....rallied as stocks fell on bird flu and profit taking
End-of-Day News
The S&P 500 rose modestly today led by telecom and healthcare companies. The final hour saw a round of futures related selling. Semis also seemed to lead the market to the downside. PFE paced the gains in drug stocks as regulators approved its drug for lung disease. SBC says it will raise high-speed internet access by 11% to some customers, helping the telecom sector. Smith Barney said strength in the enterprise will continue to accelerate throughout 04. Volatility(VIX) is creeping back up to more healthy levels finishing the day at 17.11. Insider buying was reported at SNDK,CHK,FDX.
Bottom Line
The weak rally that occurred early in the day, due to a terrorism-free Super Bowl and strong economic numbers, gave way to concerns over the Asian bird flu as CNBC talked about it a good part of the day. The market still feels heavy to me and seems to be in a corrective phase. I made no new trades today as my longs greatly out-performed and my shorts under-performed. A very good day for relative performance. My portfolio is still market neutral and I am looking for more down-side near-term.
After-Hours
JCOM+5.3% up on strong earnings and guidance...raising 04 estimates significantly
TASR+11.2% up on strong earnings and guidance...sees 04 sales up 100%...also short squeeze
Goldman downgrades semi. equipment stocks after close-I view this as a short-sighted call
Goldman makes positive comments on MSFT-I agree
Morgan Stanley makes positive comments on ANDW-I agree
NASDAQ-.15%
Leading/Lagging Sectors
Telecom+2.14%
Broadcasting+1.78%
Biotech+1.53%
Airlines-1.88%
Semis-1.63%
Iron/Steel-1.43%
Market Movers
ACS down on Florida contract difficulties
ANDW up on strong earnings report
RDWR down on earnings report that just met expectations
NT,SUNW,CSCO up on anticipation of strong corp. spending
Commodity Movers
Crude Oil+5.6%
Natural Gas+3.02%
Gold unchanged.....rallied as stocks fell on bird flu and profit taking
End-of-Day News
The S&P 500 rose modestly today led by telecom and healthcare companies. The final hour saw a round of futures related selling. Semis also seemed to lead the market to the downside. PFE paced the gains in drug stocks as regulators approved its drug for lung disease. SBC says it will raise high-speed internet access by 11% to some customers, helping the telecom sector. Smith Barney said strength in the enterprise will continue to accelerate throughout 04. Volatility(VIX) is creeping back up to more healthy levels finishing the day at 17.11. Insider buying was reported at SNDK,CHK,FDX.
Bottom Line
The weak rally that occurred early in the day, due to a terrorism-free Super Bowl and strong economic numbers, gave way to concerns over the Asian bird flu as CNBC talked about it a good part of the day. The market still feels heavy to me and seems to be in a corrective phase. I made no new trades today as my longs greatly out-performed and my shorts under-performed. A very good day for relative performance. My portfolio is still market neutral and I am looking for more down-side near-term.
After-Hours
JCOM+5.3% up on strong earnings and guidance...raising 04 estimates significantly
TASR+11.2% up on strong earnings and guidance...sees 04 sales up 100%...also short squeeze
Goldman downgrades semi. equipment stocks after close-I view this as a short-sighted call
Goldman makes positive comments on MSFT-I agree
Morgan Stanley makes positive comments on ANDW-I agree
Monday...Mid-day Update
S&P 500+.8%
NASDAQ+.89%
Leading/Lagging Sectors
Biotech+2.3%
Telecom+2.5%
Airlines-.4%
Iron/Steel-.6%
Market Movers
F,GM down on interest rate/weather fears.
TWTC down on increased customer disconnects.
NTES,SINA,SOHU,CHINA up as bird flu results in more internet usage in Asia.
Commodity Movers
Crude Oil+3.4% on cold weather demand and refinery shutdowns.
Gold-1.6% continuing drop on expectations of interest rate hike.
Mid-day News
Morgan Stanley estimating Video-on-demand(VOD) market will increase 38% to
$157M in 2004-Should benefit CCUR,SEAC.
ISM manufacturing index came in at 63.6...highest since 1983 and 8th straight
month above 50(anything above 50 signals expansion)...19.1% jump in
exports(best in 7 years) should help improve trade deficit.
Caterpillar Vice-Chairman says weakened US dollar is significantly improving its
competitive position in global markets.
FCC will investigate Janet Jackson breast exposure during Super Bowl half-time
show.
According to Semiconductor Industry Association(SIA), sales increased 27% in
December from year ago levels. 4th quarter saw 11% growth over 3rd
quarter vs. a historic avg. of 4% growth. Sales were up 19% for all of 2003.
Expectations are for an increase of 20-25% in 2004 with Flash memory
(+59%) and Microprocessors(+29%) seeing the strongest demand.
S&P 500 P/E is now 18 on 2004 estimates, well below the 30x of the late 90's.
Pharma/Biotech valuations are at their lowest relative levels since 1993.
Advance/Decline line is relatively weak on today's up-move.
Interest rates are down modestly.
I am sitting tight on my positions right now. My shorts are up less than my longs, so it is a pretty good day. I am thinking about adding a long position in one of the Chinese internet stocks based on low relative valuations, strong fundamentals and technicals.
NASDAQ+.89%
Leading/Lagging Sectors
Biotech+2.3%
Telecom+2.5%
Airlines-.4%
Iron/Steel-.6%
Market Movers
F,GM down on interest rate/weather fears.
TWTC down on increased customer disconnects.
NTES,SINA,SOHU,CHINA up as bird flu results in more internet usage in Asia.
Commodity Movers
Crude Oil+3.4% on cold weather demand and refinery shutdowns.
Gold-1.6% continuing drop on expectations of interest rate hike.
Mid-day News
Morgan Stanley estimating Video-on-demand(VOD) market will increase 38% to
$157M in 2004-Should benefit CCUR,SEAC.
ISM manufacturing index came in at 63.6...highest since 1983 and 8th straight
month above 50(anything above 50 signals expansion)...19.1% jump in
exports(best in 7 years) should help improve trade deficit.
Caterpillar Vice-Chairman says weakened US dollar is significantly improving its
competitive position in global markets.
FCC will investigate Janet Jackson breast exposure during Super Bowl half-time
show.
According to Semiconductor Industry Association(SIA), sales increased 27% in
December from year ago levels. 4th quarter saw 11% growth over 3rd
quarter vs. a historic avg. of 4% growth. Sales were up 19% for all of 2003.
Expectations are for an increase of 20-25% in 2004 with Flash memory
(+59%) and Microprocessors(+29%) seeing the strongest demand.
S&P 500 P/E is now 18 on 2004 estimates, well below the 30x of the late 90's.
Pharma/Biotech valuations are at their lowest relative levels since 1993.
Advance/Decline line is relatively weak on today's up-move.
Interest rates are down modestly.
I am sitting tight on my positions right now. My shorts are up less than my longs, so it is a pretty good day. I am thinking about adding a long position in one of the Chinese internet stocks based on low relative valuations, strong fundamentals and technicals.
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