Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AL/.69
CAH/.56
CMX/.35
CVS/.41
NVDA/.09
RRGB/.43
UVN/.20
WMB/.12
OATS/-.12
XMSR/-.65
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Preliminary 3Q Non-farm Productivity estimated up 1.5% versus a 2.5% gain in 2Q.
Preliminary 3Q Labor Costs estimated up 2.4% versus a 1.8% rise in 2Q.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 340K versus 350K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated at 2805K versus 2823K prior.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on CAT, SYMC, CVD, STZ, IR, BSX, GDT, MDT, AAP, RRI, BAC, FSH and Underperform on EW, UNM, DUK, DE, NAV.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mixed as optimism over U.S. gains is being offset by today's rise in energy prices. Companies are becoming more wary about their tax affairs amid an increased focus on corporate governance in the post-Enron era, the Financial Times reported. China needs to raise interest rates further to slow the economy as they are still negative in real terms, China Securities Journal reported. General Electric won a court ruling in a dispute over federal income taxes, the Wall Street Journal reported. Managed-care company payments to physicians will rise by 4% next year while payments for outpatient hospital treatment will increase by 3.3% because of inflation, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.12%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.20%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open mixed in the morning as the major indices consolidate recent gains and traders anticipate Friday's jobs report. The Portfolio is at its highs for the year and is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.
Thursday, November 04, 2004
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Wednesday Close
S&P 500 1,143.20 +1.12%
NASDAQ 2,004.33 +.98%
Leading Sectors
HMOs +5.55%
Biotech +3.35%
Defense +3.17%
Lagging Sectors
Semis -1.0%
Broadcasting -1.04%
Airlines -1.48%
Other
Crude Oil 50.91 +.06%
Natural Gas 8.82 +.78%
Gold 427.70 +.54%
Base Metals 114.83 -1.10%
U.S. Dollar 84.70 -.90%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.07% +.67%
VIX 14.04 -13.23%
Put/Call .87 +16.0%
NYSE Arms .73 -35.96%
After-hours Movers
PENN +12.2% after agreeing to purchase Argosy Gaming for $1.4 billion in cash to create the third-largest U.S. operator of gambling properties. ARGY +12.3%.
TALK +14.9% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance substantially.
QCOM -4.94% after meeting 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
DITC -30.5% after lowering 2Q/3Q guidance.
DIGE -24.8% after missing 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q/05 outlooks.
ADRX -19.3% after missing 3Q estimates.
BOBJ -16.7% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
AUDC -8.6% after saying it intends to offer $100 million aggregate principal amount of Senior Convertible Notes due 2024.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on NFX and PG.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today on optimism over President Bush's victory, improving sentiment, better economic reports and short-covering. After the close, the California Public Employees' Retirement System asked chief executive officers of Fortune 100 companies to disclose whether they have any financial stake in businesses that provide service to their companies, CNBC said. President Bush's re-election may force French and German leaders who opposed the war in Iraq to try to patch up strained relations with the U.S., officials and scholars from Stockholm to Berlins said. California voters overturned a law that would have required businesses to pay for their workers' health insurance, a victory for retailers and restaurateurs such as Wal-Mart Stores and McDonald's, Bloomberg reported. News Corp. said fiscal first-quarter profit rose 27%, in part because advertising sales increases at its cable-tv networks such as Fox News Channel, Bloomberg said. Electronic Data Systems postponed the release of third-quarter results a second time as it reviews the value of assets related to a money-losing U.S. Navy contract, Bloomberg reported. Shares of W.R. Grace, USG Corp. and other companies facing claims for asbestos-related injuries surged on optimism that Republican victories in U.S. elections improved prospects for creation of a fund to end the lawsuits, Bloomberg said. Toyota, Honda and Nissan, Japan's biggest automakers, led U.S. sales gains in October and propelled Asia-based brands to a market share record on demand for their newest cars and light trucks, Bloomberg reported. Shares of Diebold, whose electronic-voting machines were criticized as vulnerable to hacking and breakdowns, rose after computerized ballots showed few signs of trouble in yesterday's U.S. presidential election, Bloomberg said. U.S. service industries expanded in October at the fastest pace in three months and more companies said they were hiring, evidence the economy is strengthening, Bloomberg reported. Qualcomm said fourth-quarter net income rose amid growing demand for handsets that play games, music and deliver e-mail, Bloomberg said. General Electric's NBC last night drew more viewers with its coverage of the U.S. presidential election than other broadcast networks. On cable tv, Fox News Channel drew a substantially bigger audience than CNN, Bloomberg reported. Constellation Brands will acquire Robert Mondavi for a sweetened offer of $1.03 billion in cash, ending any plans to keep the company in the Mondavi family, Bloomberg said. Palestinian leader Arafat was taken to an intensive care unit at the hospital in Paris where he is undergoing treatment, Agence France-Presse reported. Hamid Karzai's victory in Afghanistan's first direct presidential election is a "milestone" toward democracy in the country, the U.S. State Department said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on strength in my healthcare, biotech and internet longs. I took profits in a few wireless longs in the afternoon and added some Indian ADR longs, leaving the Portfolio with 125% net long market exposure. One of my new longs is WIT and I am using a $20.95 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market was good today as most stocks rose and volume increased. Technology stocks underperformed as investors rotated into healthcare-related companies on the belief that a President Bush victory was positive for the sector. I believe tech's underperformance is a short-term phenomenon as this sector should benefit from the accelerating economic growth I foresee. Measures of investor anxiety fell today and will likely hit new intermediate-term lows over the next several months on diminishing domestic terrorism fears and rising stock prices.
NASDAQ 2,004.33 +.98%
Leading Sectors
HMOs +5.55%
Biotech +3.35%
Defense +3.17%
Lagging Sectors
Semis -1.0%
Broadcasting -1.04%
Airlines -1.48%
Other
Crude Oil 50.91 +.06%
Natural Gas 8.82 +.78%
Gold 427.70 +.54%
Base Metals 114.83 -1.10%
U.S. Dollar 84.70 -.90%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.07% +.67%
VIX 14.04 -13.23%
Put/Call .87 +16.0%
NYSE Arms .73 -35.96%
After-hours Movers
PENN +12.2% after agreeing to purchase Argosy Gaming for $1.4 billion in cash to create the third-largest U.S. operator of gambling properties. ARGY +12.3%.
TALK +14.9% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q guidance substantially.
QCOM -4.94% after meeting 4Q estimates and lowering 05 outlook.
DITC -30.5% after lowering 2Q/3Q guidance.
DIGE -24.8% after missing 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q/05 outlooks.
ADRX -19.3% after missing 3Q estimates.
BOBJ -16.7% after meeting 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
AUDC -8.6% after saying it intends to offer $100 million aggregate principal amount of Senior Convertible Notes due 2024.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on NFX and PG.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today on optimism over President Bush's victory, improving sentiment, better economic reports and short-covering. After the close, the California Public Employees' Retirement System asked chief executive officers of Fortune 100 companies to disclose whether they have any financial stake in businesses that provide service to their companies, CNBC said. President Bush's re-election may force French and German leaders who opposed the war in Iraq to try to patch up strained relations with the U.S., officials and scholars from Stockholm to Berlins said. California voters overturned a law that would have required businesses to pay for their workers' health insurance, a victory for retailers and restaurateurs such as Wal-Mart Stores and McDonald's, Bloomberg reported. News Corp. said fiscal first-quarter profit rose 27%, in part because advertising sales increases at its cable-tv networks such as Fox News Channel, Bloomberg said. Electronic Data Systems postponed the release of third-quarter results a second time as it reviews the value of assets related to a money-losing U.S. Navy contract, Bloomberg reported. Shares of W.R. Grace, USG Corp. and other companies facing claims for asbestos-related injuries surged on optimism that Republican victories in U.S. elections improved prospects for creation of a fund to end the lawsuits, Bloomberg said. Toyota, Honda and Nissan, Japan's biggest automakers, led U.S. sales gains in October and propelled Asia-based brands to a market share record on demand for their newest cars and light trucks, Bloomberg reported. Shares of Diebold, whose electronic-voting machines were criticized as vulnerable to hacking and breakdowns, rose after computerized ballots showed few signs of trouble in yesterday's U.S. presidential election, Bloomberg said. U.S. service industries expanded in October at the fastest pace in three months and more companies said they were hiring, evidence the economy is strengthening, Bloomberg reported. Qualcomm said fourth-quarter net income rose amid growing demand for handsets that play games, music and deliver e-mail, Bloomberg said. General Electric's NBC last night drew more viewers with its coverage of the U.S. presidential election than other broadcast networks. On cable tv, Fox News Channel drew a substantially bigger audience than CNN, Bloomberg reported. Constellation Brands will acquire Robert Mondavi for a sweetened offer of $1.03 billion in cash, ending any plans to keep the company in the Mondavi family, Bloomberg said. Palestinian leader Arafat was taken to an intensive care unit at the hospital in Paris where he is undergoing treatment, Agence France-Presse reported. Hamid Karzai's victory in Afghanistan's first direct presidential election is a "milestone" toward democracy in the country, the U.S. State Department said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on strength in my healthcare, biotech and internet longs. I took profits in a few wireless longs in the afternoon and added some Indian ADR longs, leaving the Portfolio with 125% net long market exposure. One of my new longs is WIT and I am using a $20.95 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market was good today as most stocks rose and volume increased. Technology stocks underperformed as investors rotated into healthcare-related companies on the belief that a President Bush victory was positive for the sector. I believe tech's underperformance is a short-term phenomenon as this sector should benefit from the accelerating economic growth I foresee. Measures of investor anxiety fell today and will likely hit new intermediate-term lows over the next several months on diminishing domestic terrorism fears and rising stock prices.
*Alert*
There will not be a mid-day update due to a scheduling conflict. The Wednesday close will appear at its regular time. The Portfolio is still 125% net long and substantially higher on the day.
Wednesday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
EL/.37
EDS/.08
FOX/.37
IACI/.21
QCOM/.29
SONS/.02
TWX/.14
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Factory Orders for September are estimated to rise .4% versus a .1% decline in September.
ISM Non-Manufacturing for October estimated at 58.0 versus 56.7 in September.
Total Vehicle Sales for October estimated at 16.5M versus 17.5M in September.
Domestic Vehicle Sales for October estimated at 13.5M versus 14.3M in September.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on VZ, IR, AMLN, CZN, AG and EPD. Goldman reiterated Underperform on PPS, HCC and VICL.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on optimism over President Bush's apparent victory and the prospects for accelerating world economic growth. Royal Philips Electronics, Europe's biggest consumer-electronics maker, forecast sales derived from China will reach $15 billion in 2007, double the level in 2002, the Shanghai Daily said. Microsoft has won a $919 million contract to put its software on U.K. National Health Service computers, the London-based Times reported. The California Public Employees' Retirement System has invested about $100 million in Indian stocks since April, the Financial Express reported. China and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will begin forming a free-trade zone next year, the Xinhua News Agency reported. Saudi Arabia is boosting purchases of oil-drilling equipment to tap new reserves and meet rising global demand for oil, the Wall Street Journal reported. California voters approved a plan to sell $3 billion in state-backed municipal bonds to pay for stem cell research, the AP reported. Switzerland signed agreements with the European Union last week which will allow it to keep its banking confidentiality rules, the Wall Street Journal reported. American Intl. Group would have its books examined by an independent monitor under a proposal from the SEC, the NY Times reported. Colorado voters rejected a ballot measure that would have changed the state's winner-takes-all system for awarding its 9 electoral votes to one that allocates them in proportion to the popular vote, CNN reported. The Republican Party retained control of the U.S. Senate by picking up seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, Bloomberg reported. Republican beat four incumbent Democrats in Texas and picked up the seat of a retiring Democratic lawmaker in Kentucky to retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, Bloomberg reported. U.S. stock futures and the dollar are soaring as President Bush appears poised for re-election, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0% to +1.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +1.27%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +1.77%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open sharply higher in the morning on optimism over an end to one of the most negative elections in U.S. history, plummeting domestic terrorism fears, the prospects for accelerating economic growth, short-covering and bargain hunting. At this hour, President Bush has not officially won re-election, however barring some unforeseen circumstance this should occur shortly. Senator Kerry needed to win Ohio for any chance at the Presidency. Ohio is currently very close, but based on my calculations it would be virtually impossible to close the gap of 105,000 given the tendencies of the counties that are still unreported. Fox News and NBC have already called Ohio for President Bush. By tomorrow, it should be apparent that the President succeeded in his bid for re-election.
Company/Estimate
EL/.37
EDS/.08
FOX/.37
IACI/.21
QCOM/.29
SONS/.02
TWX/.14
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Factory Orders for September are estimated to rise .4% versus a .1% decline in September.
ISM Non-Manufacturing for October estimated at 58.0 versus 56.7 in September.
Total Vehicle Sales for October estimated at 16.5M versus 17.5M in September.
Domestic Vehicle Sales for October estimated at 13.5M versus 14.3M in September.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on VZ, IR, AMLN, CZN, AG and EPD. Goldman reiterated Underperform on PPS, HCC and VICL.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on optimism over President Bush's apparent victory and the prospects for accelerating world economic growth. Royal Philips Electronics, Europe's biggest consumer-electronics maker, forecast sales derived from China will reach $15 billion in 2007, double the level in 2002, the Shanghai Daily said. Microsoft has won a $919 million contract to put its software on U.K. National Health Service computers, the London-based Times reported. The California Public Employees' Retirement System has invested about $100 million in Indian stocks since April, the Financial Express reported. China and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will begin forming a free-trade zone next year, the Xinhua News Agency reported. Saudi Arabia is boosting purchases of oil-drilling equipment to tap new reserves and meet rising global demand for oil, the Wall Street Journal reported. California voters approved a plan to sell $3 billion in state-backed municipal bonds to pay for stem cell research, the AP reported. Switzerland signed agreements with the European Union last week which will allow it to keep its banking confidentiality rules, the Wall Street Journal reported. American Intl. Group would have its books examined by an independent monitor under a proposal from the SEC, the NY Times reported. Colorado voters rejected a ballot measure that would have changed the state's winner-takes-all system for awarding its 9 electoral votes to one that allocates them in proportion to the popular vote, CNN reported. The Republican Party retained control of the U.S. Senate by picking up seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia, Bloomberg reported. Republican beat four incumbent Democrats in Texas and picked up the seat of a retiring Democratic lawmaker in Kentucky to retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, Bloomberg reported. U.S. stock futures and the dollar are soaring as President Bush appears poised for re-election, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0% to +1.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +1.27%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +1.77%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open sharply higher in the morning on optimism over an end to one of the most negative elections in U.S. history, plummeting domestic terrorism fears, the prospects for accelerating economic growth, short-covering and bargain hunting. At this hour, President Bush has not officially won re-election, however barring some unforeseen circumstance this should occur shortly. Senator Kerry needed to win Ohio for any chance at the Presidency. Ohio is currently very close, but based on my calculations it would be virtually impossible to close the gap of 105,000 given the tendencies of the counties that are still unreported. Fox News and NBC have already called Ohio for President Bush. By tomorrow, it should be apparent that the President succeeded in his bid for re-election.
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Tuesday Close
S&P 500 1,130.56 unch.
NASDAQ 1,984.79 +.25%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.76%
Homebuilders +1.3%
Iron/Steel +1.2%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.47%
Utilities -1.73%
Oil Service -2.38%
Other
Crude Oil 49.21 -.83%
Natural Gas 8.50 -.78%
Gold 422.60 +.43%
Base Metals 114.64 -.17%
U.S. Dollar 85.47 +.32%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.06% -.24%
VIX 16.18 -.55%
Put/Call .75 -17.58%
NYSE Arms 1.14 -10.94%
After-hours Movers
MLNM +4.3% after announcing the FDA has granted VELCADE fast track designation for relapsed and refractory mantle cell lymphoma.
ENWV +7.5% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q outlook.
CDIS +5.8% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 04 guidance.
ITRI -5.03% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
PCLN -5.5% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AMLN, IR and VZ. Goldman reiterated Underperform on PPS.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today after a late-session sell-off related to rumors of a strong showing by Senator Kerry in exit polls from Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio. After the close, Apple Computer shares rose to a four-year high as demand for the iPod digital music player surges before the year-end shopping season, Bloomberg said. Delta Air Lines, seeking to avoid bankruptcy, said bondholders offered to swap $252 million of debt in response to part of an exchange offer for as much as $680 million in new notes, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures fell for a third day, after closing yesterday below $50 for the first time in four weeks, on expectations rising U.S. inventories will be able to meet demand, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. dollar traded near a six-month low against the yen on speculation Senator Kerry is leading President Bush in early counting of votes in the election, Bloomberg said.
NASDAQ 1,984.79 +.25%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.76%
Homebuilders +1.3%
Iron/Steel +1.2%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.47%
Utilities -1.73%
Oil Service -2.38%
Other
Crude Oil 49.21 -.83%
Natural Gas 8.50 -.78%
Gold 422.60 +.43%
Base Metals 114.64 -.17%
U.S. Dollar 85.47 +.32%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.06% -.24%
VIX 16.18 -.55%
Put/Call .75 -17.58%
NYSE Arms 1.14 -10.94%
After-hours Movers
MLNM +4.3% after announcing the FDA has granted VELCADE fast track designation for relapsed and refractory mantle cell lymphoma.
ENWV +7.5% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 4Q outlook.
CDIS +5.8% after beating 3Q estimates and raising 04 guidance.
ITRI -5.03% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
PCLN -5.5% after missing 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AMLN, IR and VZ. Goldman reiterated Underperform on PPS.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today after a late-session sell-off related to rumors of a strong showing by Senator Kerry in exit polls from Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio. After the close, Apple Computer shares rose to a four-year high as demand for the iPod digital music player surges before the year-end shopping season, Bloomberg said. Delta Air Lines, seeking to avoid bankruptcy, said bondholders offered to swap $252 million of debt in response to part of an exchange offer for as much as $680 million in new notes, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures fell for a third day, after closing yesterday below $50 for the first time in four weeks, on expectations rising U.S. inventories will be able to meet demand, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. dollar traded near a six-month low against the yen on speculation Senator Kerry is leading President Bush in early counting of votes in the election, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on strength in my gaming, restaurant and wireless longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. I continue to believe the market will move higher tomorrow regardless of who wins the Presidency tonight. However, a delay in the outcome would send shares lower. As well, a Democratic takeover of the Senate or House would send stocks sharply lower. I do not believe either one of these outcomes is very likely.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)