Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,509.65 -1.67%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,509.65 -1.67%
DJIA 13,595.10 -1.53%
NASDAQ 2,810.38 +.22%
Russell 2000 797.78 -2.87%
Wilshire 5000 15,194.27 -1.63%
Russell 1000 Growth 629.14 -.24%
Russell 1000 Value 820.02 -2.97%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 737.33 -.78%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,044.66 -.92%
Morgan Stanley Technology 673.42 +.60%
Transports 4,802.75 -1.32%
Utilities 525.84 +.62%
MSCI Emerging Markets 160.98 -.52%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 69,033 +.41%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -197 -3,183%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 60.0 +43.2%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 246,342 +.99%
Total Put/Call 1.15 +42.0%
NYSE Arms 1.11 +89.47%
Volatility(VIX) 23.01 +18.0%
ISE Sentiment 136.0 -15.72%
AAII % Bulls 44.7 +43.1%
AAII % Bears 36.5 -24.3%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 95.98 +4.59%
Reformulated Gasoline 243.85 +7.45%
Natural Gas 8.38 +7.99%
Heating Oil 257.02 +5.1%
Gold 809.80 +2.74%
Base Metals 245.84 -1.23%
Copper 335.95 -6.07%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.32% -8 basis points
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 327,000 +.5%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.26% -7 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 681.70 +3.84%
Weekly Retail Sales +2.2%
Nationwide Gas $2.94/gallon +.12/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 4% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 139.40 -.21%
US Dollar Index 76.27 -.90%
CRB Index 353.57 +2.23%

Best Performing Style
Large-cap Growth -.24%

Worst Performing Style
Small-cap Value -4.0%

Leading Sectors
Software +4.4%
Gold +4.11%
Disk Drives +2.8%
Defense +1.4%
Computer Hardware +1.0%

Lagging Sectors
Insurance -4.0%
Homebuilders -4.63%
Steel -4.2%
Banks -6.7%
Coal -7.49%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Tech Strength Offsets Financial Weakness

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Medical longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The overall tone of the market is mixed today as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above-average. Traders are once again ignoring positive economic data as investors seem to always take the stance that the worst is yet to come in the current U.S. negativity bubble. Goldman Sachs (GS) told CNBC that rumors of an impending writedown aren't true. As well, Merrill Lynch (MER) said that it doesn't believe inappropriate deals occurred. So far, action today is sloppy and likely frustrating for both bulls and bears. Strength in tech, energy and biotech is being offset by weakness in anything associated with housing. Investor anxiety is still high. It is a positive that the broad market is holding as well as it is given the groups that remain under pressure. Housing-related plays are getting very oversold again and remain heavily-shorted, which means the slightest of catalysts could spur a near-term rally in the beaten-up shares. Beneath the surface, the tone is more positive in the broad market. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on bargain-hunting and short-covering.

Job Creation Healthy, Unemployment Still Historically Low, Earnings Rising Almost Twice Inflation, Factory Orders Rebound

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for October was 166K versus estimates of 85K and 96K in September.

- The Unemployment Rate for October was 4.7% versus estimates of 4.7% and 4.7% in September.

- Average Hourly Earnings for October rose .2% versus estimates of a .3% gain and a .3% increase in September.

- Factory Orders for September rose .2% versus estimates of a .7% decline and a 3.5% decline in August.

BOTTOM LINE: American employers added almost twice as many jobs as forecast in October, Bloomberg reported. The unemployment rate held at a historically low 4.7%. Service industries, which includes banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 190,000 jobs. Average Hourly Earnings rose 3.8%, which is very high by historic stands and almost twice most measures of inflation. For two years, we have been hearing that the housing downturn would lead to imminent massive job loss, and there remains little evidence of this. Fed fund futures now imply a 72% chance for another 25 basis-point-cut at the upcoming December meeting, up from a 60% chance yesterday. I continue to believe the US job market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increases.

Orders to US factories unexpectedly rose in September, suggesting companies remain confident the economy will continue to grow, Bloomberg reported. Excluding transports, demand jumped 1.4%. Bookings for capital goods excluding aircraft and military equipment, a measure of future business investment, rose .6% versus a .1% gain in August. Manufacturers had enough goods on hand to last 1.24 months, the same as the prior month. I continue to believe manufacturing will help boost overall US growth over the intermediate-term as companies gain confidence in the sustainability of the current expansion and rebuild depleted inventories.

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