- Ningbo Sunhu Chemical Products Co., China’s biggest nickel trader, said its post-Lunar New Year sales slumped as 90% of its customers remained closed because of lack of demand.Sales in the first two days after the week-long holiday dropped 95% from the same period last year, Kevin Ji, chief analyst, said in a phone interview today. “The global nickel industry seems to be pinning much hope on post-vacation Chinese demand, yet we’re feeling pretty desperate right here,” Ji said. China accounts for about 25% of global nickel demand. Ningbo Sunhu, which trades around 50,000 metric tons of the metal yearly, sells most of its products in the weeks after the Lunar New Year holiday and in the fourth quarter.
- North Korea may be preparing to test-fire a Taepodong-2 long-range missile, citing Japanese government officials.Preparations may be completed in two months.The country may test an improved version of the Taepodong-2 missile capable of reaching the US mainland, the newspaper said.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations Citigroup: - Downgraded .
- Reiterated Buy on (HUM), raised target to $53.
- Reiterated Buy on (AMAT), target $14.
Night Trading Asian Indices are unch. to +1.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.45%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.50%.
Earnings of Note Company/EPS Estimate - (IACI)/.20
- (CMI)/.41
- (PNR)/.40
- (COCO)/.15
- (NOC)/1.56
- (EMR)/.57
- (ADP)/.57
- (AVP)/.59
- (MRK)/.74
- (MAN)/.79
- (ADM)/.71
- (MRO)/.89
- (CME)/3.45
- (DHI)/-.56
- (SGP)/.30
- (AMSC)/-.20
- (MYGN)/.34
- (DOW)/.08
- (MOT)/.00
- (UPS)/.85
- (DIS)/.52
- (CTX)/-3.52
- (ILMN)/.17
- (MET)/.13
- (JLL)/1.20
- (ERTS)/.89
- (MEE)/.81
- (YUM)/.45
- (TUP)/.80
- (ADS)/1.16
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for December are estimated unch. versus 4.0% decline in November.
Afternoon:
- Total Vehicle Sales for January are estimated to fall to 10.2M versus 10.3M in December.
Upcoming Splits - None of note
Other Potential Market Movers - The weekly retail sales reports, JPMorgan Global High Yield/Leveraged Finance Conference, CSFB Energy Summit, (OSK) shareholders meeting, (BDX) shareholders meeting and (EMR) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Biotech longs, Healthcare longs, Education longs and Computer longs. I covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling rising 1.0% and is very high at 45.31. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 115.0 and the total put/call is below average at .80. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high most of the day, hitting 1.68 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.0. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 1.56% today to 119.17 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 157.81 on Sept. 16th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 4.16% to 205.32 basis points. The TED spread is rising 2.44% to 98 basis points. The TED spread is now down 368 basis points in under four months.The 2-year swap spread is rising 17.0% to 72.25 basis points.The Libor-OIS spread is rising 4.46% to 96 basis points.The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling 4 basis points to 1.07%, which is down 163 basis points in over six months.The 10-year TIPS spread bottomed at .65% in October 1998 during the Asian financial crisis and at 1.24% in October 2001 during the technology bubble-bursting meltdown.The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .24%, which is up one basis point today.Small-caps are displaying meaningful relative strength today.Education and healthcare stocks are particularly strong.As well, there are an unusual number of stocks rising on volume given the major averages’ performances.It is noteworthy that the 10-year yield is at session lows, despite the rebound in stock and better-than-expected ISM report.Nikkei futures indicate an +67 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +24 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as more shorting and rising credit angst offset bargain-hunting.
- Estonian new car registrations fell 62% in January from a year earlier as the Baltic country’s deepening recession deterred customers. New car registrations fell to 1,017 units from 2,706 units a year earlier, the vehicle registration center said in an e-mailed statement today.New and used car registrations fell an annual 65% to 1,604 units, it added.
- JPMorgan Chase(JPM) and its competitors have maintained their lending, contrary to media reports that the nation’s biggest banks are holding on to their cash, Ladenburg Thalmann analyst Dick Bove said. “Banks have not pulled back,” Bove said.“The press, for whatever reason, continues to perpetuate false comments on this subject.” Bove said the media’s motive in misrepresenting the state of consumer lending was “simply mystifying.” “Bad information often leads to bad policy making,” Bove said.
- Macau’s casino revenue fell about 17% in January, citing provisional data collected from operators.Billionaire Stanley Ho’s casinos had a market share of “a little more” than 28% and his casino operator was the only one with revenue of more than 2 bilion patacas, Lusa said.Las Vegas Sands(LVS) was ranked second with “a little more” than a 22% market share, followed by Wynn Resorts with “slightly” more
Hurriyet: - Petrol Ofisi AS, Turkey’s biggest fuel distributor, expects gasoline sales to decline by 11% this year, citing CEO Melih Turker. Gasoline sales fell 11% last year.