Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,104.49 -.42%*



Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,159.90 +.86%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,104.49 -.42%
  
• DJIA 10,325.26 -.74%
  
• NASDAQ 2,238.26 -.25%
  
• Russell 2000 628.56 -.48%
  
• Wilshire 5000 11,343.17 -.42%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 493.60 -.60%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 565.42 -.32%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 671.24 -.43%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 826.44 -.41%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 559.68 -1.02%
  
• Transports 4,134.57 +1.82%
  
• Utilities 367.39 -2.57%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.95 -.86%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 969.53 +.39%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 849.59 +.03%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 925.82 -.53%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +75,513 +.81%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +229 +42
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 18.0 -41.94%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +85,352 +24.72%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,280,235 -1.64%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 +6.1%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.62 +97.56%
  
• ISE Sentiment 91.0 -1.09
  
• NYSE Arms 1.01 -1.94%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 19.50 -2.60%
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.06 -2.22%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 9,390.64 +.46%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.166 Trillion -.10%
  
• AAII % Bulls 34.90 -2.65%
  
• AAII % Bears 29.53 -16.16%
  

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 274.77 -1.09%
  
• Crude Oil 79.66 -.82%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 218.79 -.88%
  
• Natural Gas 4.81 -4.93%
  
• Heating Oil 203.53 -2.48%
  
• Gold 1,118.90 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals 201.64 -1.79%
  
• Copper 328.40 -2.41%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 298.0 USD/Ton -1.22%
• China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 3,896 Yuan/Ton +2.12%
• S&P GSCI Agriculture332.38 +.09%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 128.40 unch.
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +23.70 -36.97%
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 64.0% chance of no change, 36.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/16
• US Dollar Index 80.36 -.35%
  
• Yield Curve 280.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.61% -16 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.269 Trillion +.43%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.0 unch.
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 90.67 +2.26%
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16% -12 basis points
  
• TED Spread 14.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 92.21 -.14%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 90.32 +4.58%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 268.47 -1.99%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 334.0 -26.0 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $1.716 Trillion +1.05%
• Business Loans 649.0 -.22%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 473,800 +1.3%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.5% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 5.05% +12 basis points
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 549.50 -8.49%
  
• ABC Consumer Confidence -50 -1 point
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +1.90% unch.
  
• Nationwide Gas $2.70/gallon +.08/gallon
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 10.0% above normal
• Baltic Dry Index 2,738 +.88%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 55.0 +10.0%
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 200,204 +4.08%
  
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 78.35 +.13%
  

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -.12%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.60%

Leading Sectors

• Education +4.79%
• HMOs +2.19%
• Airlines +2.13%
• Retail +1.92%
• Road & Rail +1.72%

Lagging Sectors

• Hospitals -3.17%
• Construction -3.23%
• Alternative Energy -3.23%
• Disk Drives -5.41%
• Computer Hardware -6.02%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher, Boosted by Airline, Homebuilding, Hospital, Steel and Coal Shares

Evening Review

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Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Euro Sovereign Debt Angst, Less Financial Sector Pessimism, Lower Long-Term Rates

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Medical longs, Biotech longs and Financial longs. I covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mildly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, most sectors are rising and volume is slightly below average. Investor angst is very high. Today's overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling -3.33% and is around average at 19.43. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 89.0 and the total put/call is slightly above average at .89. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running slightly above average most of the day, hitting 1.33 at it intraday peak, and is currently .87. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -6.71% to 89.09 basis points. The North American Investment Grade CDS Index is falling -3.35% to 92.21 basis points. The TED Spread is unch. at 14.0 basis points. The 2-Year Swap Spread is rising +.73% to 24.13 basis points. The Libor-OIS Spread is unch. at 9.0 basis points. The 10-Year TIPS Spread is down -1 basis point to 2.15%. The 3-Month T-Bill is yielding .11%, which is unch. today. Construction shares are especially weak today, falling -1.31%. On the positive side, Airline, Homebuilding, Coal, Steel, Hospital and Bank shares are especially strong, rising 1.0%+. (IYR)/(XLF) have traded well throughout the day. Market leading stocks are outperforming. The Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is dropping -6.52%, which is also a big positive. I suspect the major average would be up more today if it were not for the weather, which is definitely impacting volume. There is also likely some month-end hedge fund profit-taking/new shorting going on after a pretty good month for stocks. Investors are mostly ignoring the recent poor economic data, taking into account record winter weather around the globe. I suspect this will remain the case for several more weeks. However, if datapoints continue to deteriorate into March/April investors will step back. Notwithstanding a likely euro bounce next week on some sort of help for Greece, I still expect the region's debt problems to remain with us for some time and eventually become more pronounced. Nikkei futures indicate an +14 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an up +8 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on technical buying, less financial sector pessimism, declining euro sovereign debt angst and lower long-term rates.