Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Diminishing Financial Sector Pessimism, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  
• Volume: Below Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 33.49 -3.68%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 138.0 +105.97%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.17 -13.33%
  
• NYSE Arms .56 -77.58%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 124.66 -3.48%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 238.28 -2.22%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 336.24 -2.15%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 293.51 -2.78%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.0 unch.
  
• TED Spread 43.0 -2 bps
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.
  
• Yield Curve 177.0 -2 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $120.40/Metric Tonne +.92%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.0 -.5 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.10 +5 bps
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +42 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Tech, Retail and Medical sector longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: Covered all of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added some back
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish, as the S&P 500 trades near session highs despite Eurozone debt angst, rising global growth worries, less dovish-than-expected FOMC commentary and rising energy prices. On the positive side, Bank, Coal, Energy, Oil Service, I-Bank, Hospital and HMO shares are especially strong, rising more than +2.25%. Small-caps are substantially outperforming. (XLF) has traded well throughout the day. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is down -.34% and copper is gaining +2.24%. Major European equity indices rose 1-2% today. The Germany sovereign cds is falling -7.67% to 88.33 bps, the France sovereign cds is falling -4.57% to 184.33 bps, the Ireland sovereign cds is falling -5.2% to 728.33 bps and the Belgium sovereign cds is falling -5.35% to 285.83 bps. On the negative side, Education, Airline, Biotech, Paper, Oil Tanker and Restaurant shares are lower-to-just slightly higher on the day. Tech shares have underperformed throughout the day. Gold is rising +.9%, lumber is falling -1.52% and oil is jumping +1.45%. The 10-year yield is flat at 2.00% despite sharp equity gains. The Nikkei substantially underperformed the rest of Asia overnight, falling -2.2%, and is down -15.5% ytd. The Japan sovereign cds is rising +3.69% to 118.31 bps, the Hungary sovereign cds is gaining +2.67% to 517.48 bps and the Israel sovereign cds is gaining +2.47% to 162.04 bps. Moreover, the Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index is rising +3.9% to 155.27 bps and the Emerging Markets Sovereign CDS Index is gaining +3.8% to 268.50 bps. Rice is still close to its multi-year high, rising +28.0% in about 4 months. Despite European equity gains today, the Italian 10-year yield was flat at 6.19%. The TED spread continues to trend higher and is near the highest since June 2010. The Libor-OIS spread is still very near the widest since July 2010. The 2-Year Euro Swap spread is making another new cycle high today, which is also noteworthy considering the recent strong equity advance. China Iron Ore Spot has plunged -37.25% since February 16th and -33.48% since Sept. 7th. Investors are ignoring negative news today, which is a large positive. However, it appears to me the market is becoming ever more intensely focused on the short-term direction of the euro currency as a guide to developments in the region, which I find suspect. Investors also seem to be developing a level of numbness with respect to market volatility, which is also a negative development. Volume is poor today and few stocks are posting substantial gains on volume given the major averages' sharp gains. The fact that bond yields are at session lows and flat on the day are also a red flags. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on European debt angst, global growth fears, rising energy prices, profit-taking, more shorting and technical selling.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Euro-Area Manufacturing Production Contracts. Europe’s manufacturing industry contracted for a third month in October, adding to signs the euro-area economy is edging toward a recession. A manufacturing gauge based on a survey of purchasing managers in the 17-nation euro region fell to 47.1 from 48.5 in September, London-based Markit Economics said today. That’s below an initial estimate of 47.3 published on Oct. 24. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Europe’s economy is showing signs of a deepening slump as its worsening debt crisis erodes the confidence of consumers and executives alike. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Oct. 31 lowered its euro-region growth projections for this year and next and called on the European Central Bank to lower its benchmark interest rate at its meeting tomorrow.
• EFSF Delays 3 Billion-Euro Bond Sale on Market Volatility. Europe’s bailout fund is delaying a 3 billion-euro ($4.1 billion) bond sale after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s request for a referendum on the rescue pact for his country roiled markets. The European Financial Stability Facility is putting off the 10-year issue “due to market conditions,” according to Luxembourg-based spokesman Christof Roche. The fund may wait for the outcome of the Nov. 3-4 Group of 20 summit in Cannes, France before selling the bonds, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. “The developments around the G-20 in Cannes will have a big impact on the pricing of any issue,” said Christophe Herpet, a Paris-based fund manager at AXA Investment Managers, which oversees about $735 billion of assets. Credit markets whipsawed after Papandreou surprised European leaders with his referendum plan. A benchmark credit- default swaps index soared the most ever yesterday as investors sought to protect their investments.
• EU Bank Recapitalization Plan Has 'Problems': IIF. The European Union’s plan for recapitalizing banks has “serious problems” that will hurt economic growth and make it harder for some nations to borrow, the Institute of International Finance said. There is a “clear need” to restore confidence in Europe’s banks, IIF Managing Director Charles Dallara said today in a letter to the Group of 20 nations on the eve of a summit in Cannes, France. Yet the extra capital requirements at the center of the EU’s strategy will come with “considerable cost” because of a flawed scope and approach, he said.
• German Unemployment Rose First Time in Two Years in October. German unemployment unexpectedly rose for the first time in more than two years in October and manufacturing contracted as pessimism mounted among businesses in Europe’s largest economy. The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 2.94 million, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline of 10,000, the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed. The adjusted jobless rate rose to 7 percent from 6.9 percent.
• European Banks May Need $550 Billion Capital Boost, Neptune Says. Europe’s banks may need to boost capital by as much as 400 billion euros ($550 billion) to provide an adequate cushion against losses on government bonds, four times the increase estimated by the industry, according to Neptune Investment Management Ltd.
  
• Fed Sees 'Downside Risks'; Leaves Policy Unchanged. Federal Reserve policy makers said the economy has picked up while “significant downside risks” remain, and they refrained from taking any additional steps to ease monetary policy. “Economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today in Washington after a two-day meeting. At the same time, it repeated that “there are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.” The statement may reflect the desire of policy makers led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to see if the unconventional policy steps unveiled at their last two meetings help the expansion gain strength before embarking on new initiatives.
• U.S. Companies Add More-Than-Expected 110,000 Workers in October, ADP Says. Companies added workers in October, easing concern the job market is stagnating in the third year of the U.S. recovery, according to a private report based on payrolls. The 110,000 increased followed a revised 116,000 gain the prior month, Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Employer Services said today. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a advance of 100,000.
• Confidence Among CEOs in U.S. Declines to Lowest in a Year, Survey Shows. Confidence among U.S. chief executive officers declined in the third quarter to the lowest level in more than a year as their outlook for the world’s largest economy weakened, a private survey showed. The Young Presidents’ Organization index of sentiment from July through September fell to 57.7, the weakest since the second quarter 2010, from 61.1 in the prior three months, according to the Dallas-based group. Readings greater than 50 show the outlook was more positive than negative in the survey, which began in July 2009. Thirty percent of the executives said they expected the economy would improve in the next six months, down from 45 percent who gave that response three months ago. Some 25 percent projected the economic outlook will deteriorate, more than double the 12 percent in the prior survey.
• French Magazine Firebombed After Arab Spring Satire, AFP Reports. The offices of Charlie Hebdo, a French satirical magazine that published a special edition featuring the prophet Mohammed as a “guest editor,” were gutted in an overnight firebomb attack, Agence France-Presse reported, citing an unidentified police official. Charlie Hebdo published a special edition today to commemorate the recent Arab Spring uprisings, including a cartoon image of the prophet on the cover. The fire started about 1 a.m. and caused no injuries, the news service reported., Patrick Pelloux, a witness at the scene, told AFP that a Molotov cocktail was thrown through a window and set fire to the computer system.
• MasterCard(MA) Surges as Profit Rises 38%. MasterCard Inc. (MA), the world’s second- biggest payments network, climbed the most since August as an increase in card spending helped the firm’s third-quarter profit beat estimates. The stock gained $24.95, or 7.5 percent, to $359.25 at 11:40 a.m. in New York trading. Net income climbed 38 percent to $717 million, or $5.63 a share, from $518 million, or $3.94, a year earlier, the firm said today in a statement. The average estimate of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was $4.82.
• Municipal-Bond Tax-Exemption Faces 'Real Threat' From Congress, Kraft Says. The tax-exemption on interest paid by state and local bonds faces a “real threat” from the congressional supercommittee charged with shrinking the U.S. deficit, said John L. Kraft, a municipal-bond attorney. The exemption will be a target for the panel as it seeks to find $1.5 trillion of spending cuts or revenue increases over 10 years, said Kraft, a partner with Lomurro, Davison, Eastman & Munoz Inc. in Freehold, New Jersey. “Tax exemption is not a tax preference for the rich but an opportunity for states to carry out their capital projects in the most cost-effective way,” Kraft said today at the State and Municipal Finance Conference hosted by Bloomberg Link in New York. “Do away with the exemption and you’re imposing on the citizens a tremendous cost.”

Wall Street Journal:

• Riding Dakota Oil Boom. A surge in crude-oil production in North Dakota is fueling a railroad boom in one of the nation's most remote regions, as producers bet that trains will be a quick and lucrative way to break a transportation bottleneck. The steady conveyor belt of jet-black rail cars is just the latest change in this state's western corner. Already clusters of trailers, known as man camps, have popped up in pasture lands outside of small towns like Watford City, N.D., to house oil workers.
• Greece Under Pressure To Hold Referendum As Soon As Possible. Greece is under intense pressure to call a controversial referendum on its bailout package as soon as possible and possible dates include Dec. 4 and Dec. 11, senior G-20 and International Monetary Fund Officials said Wednesday. "Original thoughts that the vote will be held in January are out of the question," an IMF official told Dow Jones Newswires.
• The Bush-Obama Rx Shortages. Critical cancer drugs are in short supply thanks to price controls.
  

CNBC.com:

• BofA(BAC) Employees Flood Bank's Rivals With Resumes.

Business Insider:

• The Oakland Strike Is Getting Huge and Has Already Slowed Down The Nation's Fifth Biggest Port.
• You'll Never Guess What Jon Corzine Did The Night Before MF Global's Disastrous Earnings.
• Europe Is Not a Nation, Therefore the Euro is Doomed.
• China's 'The World' Is The Most Ridiculous Housing Project We've Ever Seen.
• French Yields Just Exploded. (graph)
  

Zero Hedge:

• Fed Slashes Economic Outlook, Raises Inflation and Unemployment Rate Projection.
• The First-Loss Insurance Providing EFSF Is A Truly Unique Vehicle.
  

Rasmussen Reports:

• Obama Full-Month Approval Index in October Dips To Lowest Level Yet. In October, 20% of voters Strongly Approved of the president’s job performance. That’s the lowest level found during the Obama presidency to date and the second time in the last three months that the finding has fallen to a record low. Prior to last month, the number who Strongly Approved of the president’s performance ranged from a low of 21% to a high of 31% since July 2009. By comparison, 43% Strongly Approved of Obama's performance when he assumed office in January 2009.

Reuters:

• Europe Might Force Greek Deal on Creditors - Source. Europe is increasingly likely to force investors to take a cut on their Greek bondholdings if they do not voluntarily sign up to a deal to slash the country's debt burden, a person briefed on the negotiations said on Wednesday. The deal is part of an ambitious plan that was thrown into doubt this week when Greece said in a shock announcement it would vet the three-pronged agreement through a plebiscite.
  
• Foster Wheeler(FWLT) Profit Slips, Shares Drop 9%.
  
• World Manufacturing Stagnates in Oct - PMI. The world's manufacturing economy stagnated in October with the crisis-wracked euro zone by far the worst performing region, according to a business survey that showed new export orders declining at the fastest pace in almost two-and-a-half years.

Telegraph:

• Debt Crisis: Live. IMF warns it could hold back bail-out cash without assurances that Greece will fulfil its commitments, but Papandreou is 'unable to give that', while EC President urges Greece to back eurozone package.

Die Welt:

• European Union Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's push for a referendum on a new bailout package for the over-indebted country is putting the euro "in even greater danger." The consequences of a Greek rejection would be incalculable and the situation has worsened significantly for euro countries that don't enjoy the highest credit rating, Oettinger said today.

Handelszeitung:

• Georg Fischer AG is not growing as strongly as in the first half of the year, CEO Yves Serra said. A slowdown in growth in China, where the Swiss company gets about one-seventh of its sales, is occurring, he said. The company's China growth will be about half of last year's 20% to 25% rate.

Delo:

• Slovenian banks' bad loans have more than doubled from a year ago to 6.8% of all outstanding loans, citing the Slovenian central bank. A creation of a so-called bank bank is only one of the options to deal with difficulties in the banking system, the central bank said.

Shanghai Daily:

• Shanghai Sees Luxury Home Sales Decline. SALES of luxury houses in Shanghai fell in the first 10 months of this year, with extremely sluggish transactions in September and October, according to a research released yesterday by Century 21 China Real Estate. Between January and October, 1,231 units, or 299,800 square meters, of new residential properties priced at more than 50,000 yuan (US$7,899) per square meter were sold across the city, an annual decline of 22.6 percent and 18.5 percent respectively, said the agency, which operates a local network of more than 300 branches. In September and October, a traditional high season for home sales, only 195 units of luxury homes were traded, a plunge of nearly 65 percent from the same months a year earlier. These homes were sold at an average 71,300 yuan per square meter during the 10 months, up an annual 5.8 percent, Century 21 data showed.
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth (+.73%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -5.51% 2) Oil Tankers -1.50% 3) Biotech -.63%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• TAP, BDX, STE, PBI, XCO, CCG, TRW, EZCH, DMND, WMGI, CHSI, THOR, OPEN, IART, TRNX, PEET, FWLT, MDCA, MANT, JAZZ, AMRS, FISV, CTSH, STMP, ARGN, MSTR and ARTC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OPEN 2) NTES 3) EWJ 4) BHP 5) RSX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DMND 2) CECO 3) GEOY 4) BAC 5) BDX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value (+2.51%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Coal +3.63% 2) Gold & Silver +3.12% 3) Banks +3.09%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GRMN, SNCR, SIMO, TRLG, VRSK, JDSU, DISCA, REXX, HGG, HUN, FST, CVG, PWR, EOG, PXD, PAG, BGC, SPW, FCN, MA, HOT and ITT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMRN 2) XL 3) GRMN 4) EOG 5) PCS
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GHDX 2) JMP 3) SAM 4) COCO 5) IPGP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Greek Referendum to Hinder IMF, EU Aid Payment, De Jager Says. A Greek referendum on its latest bailout package will hinder the next installment of aid funds by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said. “This hinders the planning of the IMF and the euro zone. It creates a problem for the whole sixth tranche,” De Jager told parliament in The Hague late last night. “I can imagine that it will be very difficult for the IMF if there is uncertainty about the sustainability.” The new round of political turmoil throws into doubt Greece’s ability to access the emergency funding that’s keeping its finances afloat. The IMF’s executive board was due to meet in mid-November to decide on paying its part of the sixth bailout tranche, which is worth a total of 8 billion euros ($11 billion). The Netherlands and euro-zone countries including Germany and France seek to minimize the damage from a “very unfortunate” referendum called by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told parliament. France and Germany are “also searching for a way out that minimizes the damage from what has happened in Greece,” Rutte told parliament, adding the Netherlands and other euro-area states are putting pressure on Greece to cancel the referendum.
• EU Leaders Hold Pre-G-20 Crisis Talks. European leaders racing to prevent their week-old debt crisis strategy from unravelling convene emergency talks today to tell Greece there is no alternative to the budget cuts imposed in the bailout plan. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, his hold on power weakening, was summoned to Cannes on the eve of a Group of 20 summit where he will hear from French President Nicolas Sarkozy that the “only way to resolve Greek debt problems” is through a deal hammered out last week in a six-day crisis-management marathon. Papandreou triggered the latest upheaval in the two-year- long crisis by abruptly announcing on Oct. 31 a parliamentary confidence vote and his desire to hold a referendum on the rescue pact. Global stocks, the euro and bonds of debt-strapped countries tumbled yesterday as concern of a disorderly Greek default mounted. “Uncertainty and fear is palpable,” Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York, said by e-mail. “The political cost of the economic austerity does not appear fully appreciated by policy makers or investors.”
• Referendum Will Confirm Greece in Euro: Papandreou. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said a referendum on Europe’s rescue package will confirm the nation’s membership of the euro as he stuck to plans to hold the vote amid signs his government may collapse. “The referendum will be a clear mandate and strong message within and outside Greece on our European course and our participation in the euro,” Papandreou told his ministers in Athens early today, according to an e-mailed transcript. It will “ensure this course in the most decisive way.” The cabinet voted unanimously to endorse the plan. Papandreou will fly to France today to face European leaders surprised by his decision to put the bailout plan to a national vote and call a confidence vote in parliament. His grip on power weakened after a lawmaker from his socialist Pasok party defected, leaving him with 152 deputies in the 300-seat chamber, while another, Vasso Papandreou, called for the formation of a national unity government. Another four lawmakers have criticized the plans for the referendum, stopping short of defection, and six members of the party called on the premier to resign in a joint letter, Athens News Agency said yesterday. Opposition parties have ramped up calls for elections. After a nine-hour meeting, Papandreou secured the unanimous support of his Cabinet for the plan.
• Goldman Sachs(GS) Gets 24 Subpoenas From Lehman on Derivatives. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. got 24 subpoenas from bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. as part of a probe into derivatives claims against the defunct firm that were as much as $22 billion, according to a person at Lehman who declined to be named. Goldman Sachs Asset Management LP was told to deliver documents needed for the investigation to Lehman’s law firm, Jones Day in New York, by Nov. 28 at 5 p.m., according to a court filing. Other subpoenas mostly went to funds, including the Goldman Sachs SMC Credit Opportunities 2008 Fund LP, the Goldman Sachs Quantitative Commodities Master Fund LLC and the Goldman Sachs Mortgage Credit Opportunities Offshore Fund LP.
• Top Gold Forecasters See Bullion Rallying to Record by March: Commodities. The most accurate forecasters say gold will rebound from its biggest monthly plunge since 2008 and reach a record by March because economic growth is stagnating and Europe’s debt crisis is unresolved. Futures traded in New York may rise 14 percent to $1,950 an ounce by the end of the first quarter, according to the median of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The predictions are from eight of the top 10 analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past eight quarters. Two declined to give forecasts. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion rose the most in three months in October, and the most-widely held option gives owners the right to buy gold at $2,000 by Nov. 22.
• Oil Drops a Fourth Day Amid Concern Greek Referendum Raises Default Risk. Oil fell in New York for a fourth day, the longest losing streak in three months, on concern a Greek referendum on Europe’s rescue plan will worsen the region’s debt crisis and curb economic growth. Futures dropped as much as 1.3 percent after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou pledged to put Europe’s financing package to a vote. U.S. manufacturing was close to stagnating last month, a report showed yesterday. The Energy Department may today say U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week, according to the median estimate in Bloomberg News survey. “The euro-zone issue remains a key factor driving both financial markets and oil markets,” said Victor Shum, a senior principal at Purvin & Gertz Inc., a consultant in Singapore. “Economic uncertainties are going to put pressure on oil.” Oil for December delivery fell as much as $1.22 to $90.97 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $91.73 at 9:44 a.m. Singapore time.
• China Says No Talking Tibet as Confucius Funds U.S. Universities. When a Beijing organization with close ties to China’s government offered Stanford University $4 million to host a Confucius Institute on Chinese language and culture and endow a professorship, it attached one caveat: The professor couldn’t discuss delicate issues like Tibet. “They said they didn’t want to be embarrassed,” said Richard Saller, dean of Stanford’s school of humanities and sciences. Stanford refused, citing academic freedom, and Chinese officials backed down, Saller said. The university plans to use the money for a professorship in classical Chinese poetry, far removed from the Tibet dispute. China is expanding its presence on U.S. campuses, seeking to promote its culture and history and meet a growing global demand to learn its language. Hanban, a government-affiliated group under the Chinese education ministry, has spent at least $500 million since 2004 establishing 350 Confucius Institutes worldwide and about 75 in the U.S., four times the number in any other country, according to its annual reports and website.
• Tepco Detects Possible Nuclear Fission at Fukushima Reactor. Tokyo Electric Power Co. detected signs of possible nuclear fission at its crippled Fukushima atomic power plant in northern Japan, raising the risk of more radiation leaks. The company, known as Tepco, began spraying boric acid on the No. 2 reactor at 2:48 a.m. Japan time in an attempt to prevent accidental chain reactions. Tepco said it may have found xenon, which is associated with nuclear fission, while examining gases taken from the reactor, according to an e-mailed statement today.
• Nomura May Cut Japan Jobs After Quarterly Loss. Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604), Japan’s largest brokerage, said it will consider eliminating jobs at home as part of a plan to triple cost cuts to $1.2 billion following its first quarterly loss in more than two years. While most of the expense reductions will be in Europe, “we’ll also target Japan, focusing on the wholesale business,” Chief Financial Officer Junko Nakagawa told reporters yesterday in Tokyo. The company posted a 46.1 billion yen ($590 million) loss for the three months ended Sept. 30, wider than the 35 billion yen average estimate among analysts surveyed.

Wall Street Journal:

• Call for Greek Vote Unsettles Europe. Euro Slides and Stocks Drop as Government Leaders, en Route to Cannes Summit, Try to Contain Fallout From New Twist.
• PrimeX Index Tracking Residential Mortgage Bonds Drops Again. PrimeX, the derivatives index that some hedge funds and other investors have used to express bearish views on the prime residential mortgage market, fell for a second straight session Tuesday as confidence in those securities continue to fade. The index was down about a point or more across its four sub-indexes, according to its administrator Markit, having rallied hard last week. On Monday, it was down between a point and half a point, reflecting uneasiness over the European rescue plan and the impact of an economic downturn on the ability of homeowners to repay their mortgage loans. A sub-index that tracks adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 98.625 cents on the dollar as of the close Tuesday from 99.750 cents Monday. It closed over full value--at 100.521 cents--on Friday. Markit's PrimeX indexes predominantly reference non-agency, prime mortgage bonds backed by jumbo loans, which when the deals were first originated meant a loan size of more than $417,000. A report out Tuesday by Moody's Investors Service suggesting that risk in prime, jumbo residential mortgage bonds is greater than in other sectors didn't help PrimeX, and may have contributed to its decline. "Although it has by far the fewest delinquencies among outstanding loans, the jumbo sector has the potential for the highest volatility in losses going forward," Moody's wrote.
• Apple(AAPL) in His Own Image. Tim Cook promised that Apple Inc. wouldn't change when he took over the company's helm from Steve Jobs in August. But the low-key Mr. Cook has already put his operational mark on Apple in ways that suggest the company won't be entirely the same as under its intense and tempestuous co-founder.
• Worry Builds for Deficit-Panel Deal. Time Crunch, Gulf Over Taxes Has Lawmakers Concerned the Supercommittee Won't Strike Pact on $1.2 Trillion in Cuts.
• Why We Can't Escape the Eurocrisis. EU and U.S. debt are interlinked through the banking system. When is a bailout not a bailout? When the bailor is short of funds. The recently announced debt plan in the European Union comes up short in almost all respects.

Business Insider:

• The Inevitable Has Happened: Occupy Foreclosures. Last night Occupy Oakland's General Assembly did something that is likely to catch on with occupations across the country. They voted to encourage the occupation of foreclosed properties across their city.
• Bloomberg: This Could Mean Potentially Serious Charges For Jon Corzine.
  

Zero Hedge:

• US Food Stamp Usage Hits New Record. (graph)
• Keeping Up With The Korzines In The Kooler: FBI To Investigate MF Global's Theft Of Client Money.
• Fed Trapped by Inflation. Today, with inflation currently approaching 4% on a year-over-year basis the Fed is not only outside its inflation mandate of 1-3% but any further cost pressures on the consumer is going to drive the economy into a recession.
• Morgan Stanley(MS) On What Happens Next In Greece, And Why It Is All Very Euro Negative.
  

CNBC:

• MF Global(MF) Admits to Using Client Money.

NY Times:

• Whispers of Return to Drachma Grow Louder in Greek Crisis.

Forbes:

• Whipsawing Market Volatility Today Is Caused By ETFs and HFTs.

Arizona Republic:

• Solar Firms' Loans Could Be At Risk. Tempe-based First Solar Inc.(FSLR) could be in jeopardy of losing more than $2billion in federal loan support for California power plants that will use its solar panels, according to an analyst who tracks the company's stock. And federal support for the Mesquite Solar plant west of Phoenix being built by Sempra Generation and using panels from Suntech Power Holdings Co., some of which will come from its Goodyear factory, also could be in trouble, according to Axiom Capital Research analyst Gordon Johnson. Johnson said that a White House review of federal loans spurred by the collapse of loan recipient Solyndra Inc. in California could prompt some of the other Energy Department loans to get revoked.

Rasmussen Reports:

• Election 2012: Generic Republican 47%, Obama 42%.

Reuters:

• OpenTable(OPEN) Q3 Revenue Misses as Diner Growth Rate Slows. OpenTable Inc reported weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue as North American seated-diner growth slowed for the fifth straight quarter, sending the online restaurant reservation service provider's shares down 14 percent after the bell.

Telegraph:

• Greek Vote Sets Off 'Pandemonium', Engulfs Italy. Greece's startling decision to call a referendum on last week's EU summit deal has set off wild tremors across the eurozone, pushing Italy to the brink of a perilous downward spiral. The country's ruling Pasok party appeared to be splintering on Tuesdsay night, leaving it unclear whether the governent of premier George Papandreou can survive a parliamentary vote of confidence on Friday. Signs that the EU's pain-stakingly negotiated Grand Plan is unravelling within days has been a profound shock to confidence. A frantic search for safe havens led to the second biggest one-day fall ever recorded in Europe's AAA bond yields. Ten-year German Bund yields tumbled 25 basis points to 1.77pc, with similar moves in non-EMU Swedish and Danish debt. British Gilt yields fell to 2.2pc. Italy took the brunt of the punishment. Spreads over Bunds spiked to a crisis-high of 459 basis points before the European Central Bank came to the rescue. Spanish spreads reached 384. Andrew Roberts from RBS said Italy's debt stress is "dangerously close to a level that could cause pandemonium in financial markets". The point of no return - judging from the sequence in Greece, Ireland and Portugal - would most likely be if LCH Clearnet imposed higher margin requirements. This trigger is 450 points over a basket of AAA benchmark bonds. The spread reached 388 on Tuesday. "We're two more days of violence from this point, but we're not there yet," he said. The Greek move - denounced by France's Elysee as "irrational and dangerous" - raises the serious possibility that a euro member could soon be forced out of the monetary union, setting a precedent with explosive ramifications for other states in trouble. Mr Juncker said a "no" vote by Greek citizens would set in motion events that could lead to bankruptcy and threaten Greece's foothold in Europe. "If the Greek people say no to everything that has been agreed so far, then I don't see either how we can continue with the Greeks on good terms," he said. It is far from clear how Greeks might vote. A Kappa Reserach poll found that 80pc oppose the EU-IMF "Memorandum", but far less would vote against it, and 70pc want to stay in the euro. The EU's haircut deal leaves Greece with debt of 120pc of GDP in 2020 - if all goes well - after nine years of austerity and slump. While it is likely that the Greeks would vote "yes", the referendum ensures weeks or months of eurozone chaos and calls into question every component of the EU rescue package.
• Italy a Bigger Threat to UK Than Greece, Warns FSA Chairman Lord Turner. Italy's debt problems pose an even greater risk to the British economy than a Greek default, according to Lord Turner, the chairman of the Financial Services Authority.
• Companies in China face paying £14,000 a year for every non-chinese member of staff. Foreign businesses in China have attacked new legislation requiring them to pay as much as £14,000 a year for each non-Chinese member of staff.

Europe Real Estate:

• JLL: Bank Lending to Real Estate at Tightest Level Since Lehman Brothers Collapse (UK). Lending to real estate has dropped to £188 billion (approx. €218 billion); a 22% decrease on levels seen a year ago as shown in the latest Bank of England quarterly lending figures.
  

Asahi:

• Toyota will cut production because of the slowdown in the European economy, citing a report from Toyota to its parts suppliers.

Securities Times:

• China is studying plans to punish publicly listed companies for issuing fake reports on their internal controls including intentionally hiding flaws in their internal control system, citing Jia Wenqin, chief accountant of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

Evening Recommendations
Morgan Stanley:

• Rated (AGCO) Underweight, target $42.
• Rated (DE) Underweight, target $74.
• Rated (ST) Overweight, target $38.
• Rated (MTW) Overweight, target $16.
• Rated (CAT) Overweight, target $125.

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.50% to -.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 201.25 +18.25 basis points.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 155.0 +5.5 basis points.
• FTSE-100 futures +1.02%.
  
• S&P 500 futures +.24%.
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.39%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (FCN)/.60
• (TDW)/.35
• (RRD)/.51
• (DVN)/1.45
• (STE)/.55
• (CTSH)/.75
• (MMC)/.23
• (H)/.07
• (PWR)/.26
• (BDX)/1.42
• (WCG)/1.30
• (TRW)/1.40
• (KFT)/.55
• (KCP)/.22
• (TWX)/.75
• (AOL)/.10
• (NWSA)/.29
• (WBMD)/.16
• (QCOM)/.78
• (CVD)/.70
• (RGR)/.40
• (JLL)/1.12
• (CUZ)/.11
• (VMC)/.06
• (WFM)/.41
• (TSO)/1.98
• (GGC)/.78
• (CXW)/.36
• (CAR)/.98
• (IPI)/.36
• (PRU)/1.53
• (VNO)/1.13
• (CMCSA)/.40
• (DNDN)/-.70
• (MA)/4.82
• (JOE)/-.09
• (CLX)/.94
• (ICE)/1.77
• (MUR)/1.19
  

Economic Releases
8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for October is estimated at 100K versus 91K in September.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,000,000 barrels versus a +4,735,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -1,750,000 barrels versus a -4,275,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to fall by -800,000 barrels versus a -1,353,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated unch. versus a +1.7% gain the prior week.

12:30 pm est

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark fed funds rate at .25%.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Challenger Job Cuts report for October, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, EFSF Bond Auction, Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference, Stifel Nicolaus Bank Conference and the (NTGR) Analyst Day could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.