Sunday, February 24, 2008

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Ambac Financial Group(ABK) may get $3 billion in new capital as part of a rescue agreement with banks.
- Asian stocks advanced on speculation NY-based Ambac Financial(ABK) will get new capital to salvage its AAA credit rating, averting further writedowns for global financial companies.
- Electronic Arts(ERTS) offered to buy Take-Two Interactive(TTWO) for $2 billion in cash to help maintain its lead as the world’s largest video-game maker and acquire the top-selling “Grand Theft Auto” series.
- Cuban lawmakers name Raul Castro as president, formally ending the almost half-century rule of his ailing brother Fidel.
- Ralph Nader, the consumer advocate who ran for president in 2000 and 2004, said he’s going to make another bid for the White House this year.

- Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd., the UK carrier controlled by billionaire Richard Branson, tested a jumbo jet partly powered by a biofuel made from babassu nuts and coconut oil, the first for a commercial aircraft.
- Brazil, the world’s second-largest soybean producer, will harvest more than expected this year as farmers limited crop diseases and used gene-modified seeks to grow stronger plants, a forecaster said after a field tour.
- Citigroup(C), which froze redemptions from a hedge fund in January, said it was providing a $500 million line of credit to other hedge funds run by its alternative investments unit.
- Genentech Inc.(DNA) won US approval to market its top-selling treatment Avastin for women with breast cancer, giving the company a chance to add more than $700 million in sales this year.
- Qualcomm Inc.(QCOM) rose as much as 5.7% on news that the microchip-producer agreed to put on hold some of its patent-infringement disputes with Nokia Oyj(NOK), the world’s biggest maker of mobile phones.

- Obama, Clinton Wrangle Over Trade Before Ohio Contest. Obama is seeking to tie his rival to NAFTA, signed by former President Bill Clinton, which many workers blame for the loss of millions of US jobs. “Shame on you Barack Obam,” Clinton said at a news conference. “He insists on putting out misleading and false and discredited information.,” said Clinton.

- OPEC President Khelil said that the group may agree to cut production at its next meeting.
- A senior adviser to John McCain today defended the Arizona senator against a New York Times report suggesting the likely Republican presidential nominee did favors for a Washington lobbyist eight years ago. In his weekly Sunday column, New York Times Public Editor Clark Hoyt took the paper to task, saying it owed readers “more proof than the Times was able to provide.”
- Two rare diseases that cause hair loss may be spurred by mutations in the same gene, according to research that may one day lead to new treatments for baldness, German and American scientists say.
- President Lee Myung Bak, South Korea’s first president with a business background, pledged to cut taxes and speed up deregulation to encourage investment and boost economic growth.

- The yen fell against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies on speculation rising stock prices will give investors confidence to increase purchases of higher-yielding assets funded with loans in the Japanese currency.
- Thailand’s economy, Southeast Asia’s second-largest, grew at the fastest pace in seven quarters in the last three months of 2007 as exports of rice, automobiles and computer chips climbed.

Wall Street Journal:
- Hedge Funds Feel Heat as Investors Shun Complexity.
- Hillary Clinton has resisted calls from Barack Obama to follow him in releasing personal tax returns, arguing that Senate and presidential disclosure rules already have required her to make public large amounts of personal financial information. But the NY senator’s tax returns likely would provide information not available in those filings.

NY Times:
- A Sign of Hope for Stocks.
- Texas wind farms now supply more than 3% of the state’s electricity, making it the leading US state in terms of wind power, ahead of California, Minnesota and Iowa. The US is now the second-biggest wind power market after Germany. Billionaire hedge fund manager T.Boone Pickens wants to build a 150,000-acre wind farm in the Texas Panhandle that would cost $10 billion.
- The competing universal health-insurance proposals from Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama raise questions about how much will be saved through such efforts.
- A handful of mortgage REITs is managing to rise above the rubble and even thrive.
- A new drug aimed at treating schizophrenia turns its focus away from dopamine and instead on the effects of glutamate, another powerful neurotransmitter.

CNBC.com:
- Warren Buffett’s new bond insurance company has backed more than 100 municipal bonds in the past two days.

MarketWatch.com:
- Top five products to turn your house ‘green.’
- Toyota Motor is planning to establish research units for vehicle safety, alternative energy and new materials technologies in the US, breaking from its long-held tradition of basing such endeavors in Japan.

TheStreet.com:
- Apple TV Nails It the Second Time Around.

IBD:
- Corporate America is sitting on $611 billion in cash, says S&P.
- Networking Groups Aim To Turn LA Into Technology Star.

Washingtonpost.com:
- Conservatives Are Defending McCain After Newspaper Story.

IMF:
- Economic growth in Africa is the strongest in decades.

Boston Globe:
- Gasoline prices have risen so high and stayed high for so long, that Americans are driving less. In the past six months, average daily consumption slipped two-tenths of a percent from a year earlier, after growing 2.5% in the previous year. In the Northeast, gasoline demand has dropped as much as 3%, after growing 1 to 2% annually in recent years.

Business Week:
- The Secrets of Microsoft’s(MSFT) Sync. This voice-control system for car stereos and cell phones, available only in Ford(F) cars, is sure to be imitated.

USA Today:
- Fast-growing jobs: Here’s how to open the door to your future.

Forbes:
- In the Darien, Conn. Office of brokerage Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, the president of the firm, does something most brokers would never do: He calls up details of client accounts in front of a journalist. Schiff, dubbed the Doctor of Doom by CNBC, is a favorite of magazine, newspaper and TV journalists looking for a particular point of view – namely, that US stocks, US real estate and the dollar are bad for investors. Schiff’s Chicken Little take on the US economy – that it is on the brink of collapse - isn’t new. He’s been serving up the same spiel for a decade. But these days he’s getting more applause than eye-rolling from jittery investors.

Reuters:
- Lehman Brothers(LEH) will not have to take writedowns anywhere near the $15 billion that was the subject of speculation in European markets on Friday.

Financial Times:
- The world’s sovereign wealth funds will be asked to accept a voluntary code of conduct governing their investment activities under proposals poised for approval next week by the European Commission.
- CME Group(CME) is considering improving its bid for the Nymex(NMX) as it seeks to create the world’s biggest exchange.
- More than half the collateral backing cash advances made by the Federal Reserve to banks operating in the US is in the form of loans rather than securities, the NY Fed said. This is the first time the fed has offered any insight into its collateral portfolio, and the news is likely to diminish market concerns about the nature of the assets backing the Fed loans.

Globe and Mail:
- Canada needs to double its military presence in Afghanistan to 5,000 soldiers if it wants to keep key districts in Kandahar province under control, citing a top Army official. “If countries like Germany and France were not so afraid of committing forces, this problem would be solved readily,” Major Richard Moffet, deputy commander of Canada’s battle group said.
- China’s money and credit growth will slow this year as the central bank implements a battery of tightening measures to achieve its primary goal of taming inflation, a senior central bank official said on Sunday.

Xinhua:
- China’s production of crude oil off its coast will exceed 50 million metric tons by 2010 as companies speed up exploration, citing a State Oceanic Administration report. The search for oil and natural gas offshore is still in its infancy, with 80% of resources untapped, the report said.

Haaretz.com:
- Hezbollah chief: We’re preparing for war with Israel in coming months.

Gulf Times:
- A top official of the Arab States Broadcasting Union has denied that the controversial Arab media code is intended to be a tool of censorship for the satellite channels in the region.

Arab News:
- The family members of the detained Saudi blogger Fouad Al-Farhan said yesterday that although Saudi authorities allowed Al-Farhan for the first time to make a telephone call from Jeddah’s Dahban Prison on Feb. 12 they would still like to continue to visit him. Al-Farhan’s blog leads with the slogan: “Searching for freedom, dignity, justice, equality, public participation(shoura), and all the rest of lost Islamic values, and for Raghad and Khetab”(Farhan’s two children). Al-Harhan is considered in the Saudi blogosphere as being the “Dean of Saudi Bloggers” for blogging under his real name. www.alfrahan.org has tackled social issues in the Kingdom, condemned terrorism and called for “open” and “real” dialogue within the Kingdom.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (ANF), (DIS), (MRVL) and (CELG).

Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (AVP), target $55.

Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +1.75% on avg.
S&P 500 futures +.40%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (AMT)/.07
- (JWN)/.89
- (SNDA)/.45
- (DCI)/.42
- (LDK)/.41
- (TDS)/.46
- (PAY)/.36
- (RSH)/.72
- (LOW)/.25
- (FLML)/-.32

Upcoming Splits
- (RBN) 2-for-1

Economic Data
10:00 am EST

- Existing Home Sales for January are estimated to fall to 4.8M versus 4.89M in December.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (SNDK) analyst meeting, (HON) investor conference, (Q) analyst day, CSFB Global Services Conference and BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for the weekly market preview by MarketWatch.

Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday by MarketWatch.

There are some economic reports of note and a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. – Existing Home Sales

Tues. – Weekly retail sales, Producer Price Index, S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, 4Q House Price Index

Wed. – Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly EIA energy inventory report, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Bernanke Report on Economy & Fed Policy

Thur. – 4Q GDP, 4Q Personal Consumption, 4Q GDP Price Index, 4Q Core PCE, Initial Jobless Claims

Fri. – Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, PCE Core, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence, NAPM-Milwaukee

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. – American Tower(AMT), Nordstrom(JWN), Lowe’s Cos(LOW), RadioShack(RSH)

Tues. – CBS Corp.(CBS), Autozone(AZO), PMI Group(PMI), Sirius Satellite(SIRI), HJ Heinz(HNZ), DreamWorks(DWA), Sotheby’s(BID), Home Depot(HD), Macy’s(M), CBRL Group(CBRL), Focus Media(FMCN), Autodesk Inc.(ADSK), DISH Network(DISH), El Paso(EP), Office Depot(ODP), Target Corp.(TGT), KBR Inc.(KBR), Domino’s Pizza(DPZ), GlobalSantaFe Corp.(GSF), Frontier Oil(FTO)

Wed. – Dynegy Inc.(DYN), Dollar Tree(DLTR), Toll Brothers(TOL), Checkpoint Systems(CKP), Boyd Gaming(BYD), Salesforce.com(CRM), Ltd Brands(LTD), Titanium Metals(TIE), Public Storage(PSA), Liz Claiborne(LIZ), Papa John’s(PZZA), Harrah’s Entertainment(HET), Vornado Realty(VNO)

Thur. – Rowan Cos(RDC), Freddie Mac(FRE), Flour Corp.(FLR), Teekay Corp.(TK), Sprint Nextel(S), Novell Inc.(NOVL), Kohl’s Corp.(KSS), Gap Inc.(GPS), Cepheid Inc.(CPHD), BEA Systems(BEAS), American Intl Group(AIG), Hansen Natural(HANS), Viacom(VIA), WellCare Health(WCG), Revlon Inc.(REV), Deckers(DECK), Dell Inc.(DELL), BearingPoint(BE), Cablevision(CVC), Brown-Forman(BF/B)

Fri. – Mirant Corp.(MIR), Fannie Mae(FNM), Triarc Cos(TRY)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. – (SNDK) analyst meeting, (HON) investor conference, (Q) analyst day, CSFB Global Services Conference, BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference

Tue. – (SO) analyst meeting, (NICE) analyst meeting, (XTO) analyst conference, HIMSS Conference, BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference, CSFB Global Services Conference, Goldman Tech Symposium, Merrill Communications Services Congerence

Wed. – (JPM) investor day, (SNWL) analyst meeting, (UTX) analyst meeting, CSFB Transport & Logistics Conference, BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference, Goldman Tech Symposium, CSFB Global Services Conference, Robert Baird Business Solutions Conference, Keefe Bruyette Regional Bank Conference, Jeffries Internet Conference, Merrill Communications Services Conference, Wachovia Homebuilding Conference

Thur. – (DTV) investor day, (ETN) analyst meeting, (CAI) analyst meeting, (EOG) analyst conference, CSFB Specialty Pharma Conference, CSFB Aerospace/Defense Conference, CSFB Transport/Logistics Conference, Robert Baird Business Solutions Conference, Wachovia Homebuilding Conference, Goldman Tech Symposium, Pacific Crest Data Center Conference, Keefe Bruyette Regional Bank Conference

Fri. – (CPN) analyst meeting, Pacific Crest Data Center Conference, Wachovia Homebuilding Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on mostly positive earnings reports, less economic pessimism, bargain hunting, diminishing bond insurer uncertainty and short-covering. My trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,353.11 +.31*

Photobucket

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,353.11 +.31%
DJIA 12,381.02 +.03%
NASDAQ 2,303.35 -1.25%
Russell 2000 695.43 -1.4%
Wilshire 5000 13,609.49 +.12%
Russell 1000 Growth 558.53 +.11%
Russell 1000 Value 744.18 +.54%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 691.26 +.36%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 947.21 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Technology 538.76 -.81%
Transports 4,680.59 -.54%
Utilities 497.54 -.25%
MSCI Emerging Markets 140.55 +1.4%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 58,111 -4.2%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -299
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 29.0 +49.2%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 232,424 +6.86%
Total Put/Call 1.14 +12.87%
NYSE Arms .54 -60.0%
Volatility(VIX) 24.06 -5.79%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.83 -.1%
ISE Sentiment 82.0 -6.82%
AAII % Bulls 33.2 -.45%
AAII % Bears 44.7 +6.78%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 99.07 +3.95%
Reformulated Gasoline 254.23 +2.98%
Natural Gas 9.21 +5.19%
Heating Oil 276.30 +3.86%
Gold 947.80 +3.97%
Base Metals 255.54 +4.76%
Copper 380.30 +8.97%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.79% +2 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread 2.36% +6 basis points
TED Spread .89 +1 basis point
Fed Fund Futures 94.0% chance of 50 cut, 6.0% chance of 25 cut on 3/18
Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 153.26 +4.95%
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 73.20 +.54%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 360,500 +3.1%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.04% +32 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 822,800 -22.6%
Weekly Retail Sales +.7%
Nationwide Gas $3.11/gallon +.13/gallon.
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days right at normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 132.30 -.60%
US Dollar Index 75.52 -.83%
CRB Index 398.67 +3.72%

Best Performing Style
Mid-cap Value +.56%

Worst Performing Style
Small-cap Growth -1.98%

Leading Sectors
Steel +8.7%
Construction +4.96%
Insurance +3.3%
Oil Service +3.19%
Wireless +2.26%

Lagging Sectors
Gaming -2.77%
Airlines -3.29%
Biotech -3.80%
Alternative Energy -5.56%
Telecom -6.42%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted by Retail, REIT, Financial and Gaming Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart

In Play

Stocks Rebounding into Final Hour on Report of Ambac Financial Bailout

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Biotech longs. I covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and was stopped out of my (SIGM) long today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The overall tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is falling and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 2.3% today to a high 25.7. The ISE Sentiment Index is a very low 88.0 and the total put/call is a high 1.21 today. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high all day and is current 1.41. I do not see any real fundamental reason for the severe weakness today in (SIGM), however my strategy dictates that I step aside for now. I plan to re-enter the position later this year. I am seeing a number of other stocks break down for little or no apparent reason, which is a negative. The Shanghai Composite fell another 3.5% last night and is close to testing its recent low. The index is now down 28.6% from its high of last October. Recent weakness in emerging Asia could be one of the main reasons for recent selling in the US technology sector. CNBC just reported that a bailout for (ABK), that would allow it to retain its AAA rating, is in the works and could occur by next Tuesday. This would be a large positive for the broad market. Stocks are surging on the news. Nikkei futures indicate a -145 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -10 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short covering and bargain hunting.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Growth -1.71%

Sector Underperformers:

Oil Tankers (-3.68%), Airlines (-3.25%) and HMOs (-2.33%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

SOV, CBEY, CACB, INTU, OFIX, UNFI, QDEL, LNET, GFIG, CECO, HLTH, SWIM, CCOI, MGRC, LTM and AYR

Today's Headlines

Today’s Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Affiliated Managers Group(AMG) dropped as much as 6.9% after Bloomberg News reported the largest hedge fund run by the company’s AQR Capital Management fell almost 15% in the first six weeks of this year.
- The global sugar glut in the 2008-2009 season will be more than twice as big as previously estimated because higher prices will encourage more production in Brazil, Societe Kingsman SA said.
- Copper stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose for the first time this month. Supplies jumped 4.6% from yesterday. Moreover, inventories tallied by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged 45% this week.

- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard W. Fisher said that the US will probably see slower economic growth rather than a deeper downturn.
- New York Times(NYT) fell for a second day on the NYSE after a Goldman Sachs Group(GS) analyst said that asset sales advocated by hedge funds may not be financially practical.
- Europe Services Growth Accelerated More Than Forecast.

Wall Street Journal:
- In a move aimed at preventing future freezes in credit markets, US and foreign bank regulators are jointly developing a set of best practices to improve the way banks deal with cash-flow problems.
- Debate on ‘Net Neutrality’ Misses Technology Shift.
- China’s Pearl River Delta – the southern coastal area that in the past two decades has become the world’s factory floor for low-end goods – is losing thousands of factories.

NY Times:
- Hillary Clinton’s campaign spending report, which detailed expenses such as $100,000 for party platters in Iowa and $5 million on political consultants in January, appeared to her supporters and donors as a road map of her political and management failings.

FINalternatives:
- Over the past three election cycles, hedge fund managers and their colleagues have become some of the most important donors to Democrats and Democratic candidates. Of the more than $3 million in hedge fund cash given to presidential candidates last year, 75% went to Democrats. Party leadership is hoping to leverage this newfound strength with a NY fundraiser aimed specifically at hedge fund professionals.

Boston Globe:
- For the first time in almost a decade, office rents in downtown Boston have moved about the eye-popping $100-a-square-foot mark as demand tightens.

TampaBayOnline:
- Despite What Critics Say, Fed Is Doing Right Thing To Help Economy.

USA Today:
- No time to relax: States want new retirees’ experience. The wave of baby boomers hitting retirement age threatens to create such a void in the workforce that states are crafting policies and programs to keep older Americans working and volunteering.

NY Post:
- A deal between Chicago giant CME Group(CME) and The New York Mercantile Exchange(NMX) to create a $40 billion futures trading powerhouse could be formally announced by early March.

AP:
- The US government approved the first “virtual” fence along the US and Mexican border in Arizona, a 28-mile stretch lined with radar and surveillance cameras build to stop people crossing into the country illegally.

Milliyet:
- Turkey’s politicians and army decided to renew diplomatic contacts with the northern Iraqi administration.

Daily Telegraph:
- The UK’s Financial Services Authority may allow small investors to put money into hedge funds.

Interfax:
- Russia may use force if the European Union recognizes Kosovo or NATO exceeds its mandate in the territory, Russia’s ambassador to the military alliance said

Sidney Morning Herald:
- Loophole allows hedge funds to manipulate stock in secret.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Growth (-.74%)

Sector Outperformers:

Gaming (+.76%), Hospitals (+.63%) and REITs (+.05%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

OCR, HVT, CAB, LYG, HTV, ESRX, VE, SBAC, BAP, MVSN, DRL, HTX, LLTC, SHPGY, MINI, TSON, PSYS, NDSN, NCTY, VLCM, LULU, RRGB, AUXL, ENDP, SDXC, IMCL, SYNT, ABAX, BIOD, ICON, AMZN, FLI, NCI and ME

Economic Releases

- None of note

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

Movers & Shakers

Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Intraday Chart/Quote

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Two members of the panel charged with dating US economic cycles said while increasing evidence of a downturn has drawn their attention, it’s too early to declare whether a recession has begun. “Notwithstanding the darkening clouds, we are still far from the point where the committee would act,” Roberta Hall, a Stanford University economist who leads the National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee, said in an interview.
- Crude oil fell for a second day in NY after an Energy Dept. report showed that US inventories rose almost twice as much as forecast and refiners slowed processing to perform seasonal maintenance. “There comes a point where fundamentals can no longer be ignored,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vp for energy risk management at MF Global. “You can’t justify $100 oil when inventories are up six weeks, demand is weak and the economy is slowing.” Crude oil supplies have risen 7.9% in just the last six weeks. “Refineries are curtailing output for economic reasons. There’s weak product demand and they are responding by reducing output,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets. Total implied fuel demand is down 1.1% over the last four weeks from a year earlier. Gasoline inventories climbed 1 million barrels to 230.3 million, the highest since February 1994. “Gasoline supplies are near the highest level ever, and crude oil supplies are still gaining,” said Kyle Cooper, director of research at IAF Advisors in Houston.

Wall Street Journal:
- Obama, Clinton Trade Jabs on Health Care. One of the most anticipated debates of the primary season unfolded largely without drama early on, but a hint of the snarling tone that has marked the race between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama rose up as the debate progressed.

MarketWatch.com:
- RIM shares jump on raised subscriber forecast. BlackBerry maker says seasonal slowdown didn’t occur in Feb. quarter.

CNBC.com:
- Amid ‘Stagflation’ Fear, Opportunities Abound.

NY Times:
- AOL Prods Users to Switch to Firefox, Drop Netscape.
- At Toyota, a Global Giant Reaches for Agility.
- A Short-Selling Savior? Does William Ackman want to save troubled bond insurers or to bury them? A break-up proposal raises questions.

BusinessWeek.com:
- Microsoft(MSFT) Pledges Fail to Move the EU.
- Google(GOOG) Goes to the Doc’s Office. The search giant’s pilot program with the Cleveland Clinic is aimed at giving patients and doctors better access to electronic medical records.

Portfolio.com:
- Google’s(GOOG) Video AdSense: Just the Beginning?

Silicon Alley Insider:
- New York Times Co.(NYT) investor Harbinger Capital Partners may raise its stake in the newspaper company to as much as 20% stake by the end of the week, Henry Blodget said on his Silicon Alley Insider Web site today. The group believes that, without aggressive restructuring, the company could go out of business, Blodget wrote, citing a person familiar with the plans. The investors want New York Times to sell its headquarters, stakes in professional sports teams and its regional newspapers. They want the company to consider selling the Boston Globe and About.com and use the proceeds to buy digital assets.

Reuters:
- MBIA(MBI) says municipal, corporate units should split.

Financial Times:
- NY hedge fund DB Zwirn & Co is winding down its principal funds after investors – rattled by lapses in internal controls, including the expense of a private jet used by the firm’s founder – said they would withdraw more than $2 billion.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (JCP), target $58.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -3.0% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.30%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AYR)/.39
- (ENDP)/.44
- (HTV)/.30
- (HUN)/.25
- (LTM)/.48
- (HUN)/.25
- (SYNT)/.35
- (PCG)/.55
- (GAS)/1.10

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Fisher speaking, CIBC Institutional Investor Conference, DA Davidson Electronic Systems Design Conference and EnerCom Oil Service Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and automaker stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Lows, Weighed Down by Financial, Energy Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart

In Play

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Shorting, Economic Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs, Biotech longs and Medical longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The overall tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is just slightly above average. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 4% today to a high 25.4. The ISE Sentiment Index is a below average 96.0 and the total put/call is a slightly above-average .92 today. Energy and financial stocks are under the most pressure today. Energy investor T. Boone Pickens said this morning that he is short oil and natural gas and the EIA reported gasoline inventories are now at 14-year highs, which also contributed to a $2/bbl decline in oil. Vietnam(VNINDEX), which I cautioned was in a bubble last year, fell another 4.6% last night despite strength in the rest of Asia. This index is now down 39.3% from its highs in March of last year. On the positive side, Hewlett Packard(HPQ) said today that it isn’t even seeing the traditional seasonal slowdown in Europe. Tech stocks, while lower, are significantly outperforming the broad market. Semis and Disk Drives are especially firm. Disk drive maker Western Digital(WDC) hit the highest level since November 1997 today. The 10-year swap spread, which had been climbing, has reversed 10 basis points lower over the last 2 days. As well, the 10-year TIPS spread has reversed 8 basis points lower since yesterday. Nikkei futures indicate a -150 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -28 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on more shorting and rising economic worries.

Jobless Claims Decline, Philly Fed Weak, Leading Indicates Slightly Lower

- Initial Jobless Claims for this week fell to 349K versus estimates of 349K and 358K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims rose to 2736K versus estimates of 2760K and a downwardly revised 2736K prior.

- Philly Fed for February fell to -24.0 versus estimates of -10.0 and a reading of -20.9 in January.

- Leading Indicators for January fell .1% versus estimates of a .1% decline and an upwardly revised .1% decline in December.

BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans filing first time jobless claims fell this week, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving average of claims rose to 360,500. The unemployment rate among those eligible to collect benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held steady at a historically low 2.1%. Jobless claims and the unemployment rate still remain well below levels normally associated with economic contraction. I continue to believe the job market will strengthen to more healthy levels over the intermediate-term.

The Philly region gauge of manufacturing contracted more than economists expected this month, Bloomberg reported. The New Orders component of the index rose to -10.9 from -15.2 the prior month. The Inventories component of the index fell to -13 from -11.7 the prior month. The Employment component rose to 2.5 from 1.5 the prior month. The Prices Paid component fell to 46.6 from 49.8 in January. I expect this gauge to rebound in March on inventory rebuilding as exports continue to boom.

The Conference Board’s index of leading US economic indicators fell slightly in January on weakness in stocks and housing, Bloomberg reported. The Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators rose .1% for a second consecutive month. Yesterday, the Conference Board said that a US recession was unlikely and that the housing sector correction was nearly over. Fed funds futures now imply a 96% chance for a 50 basis point cut at the March 18th meeting and a 4% chance for a 25 basis point cut. I still expect US growth of around 1% this quarter, with a slight pick-up next quarter. I continue to believe US growth will average about 2% for the year as the effects of the stimulus take hold in the second half, inflation decelerates, exports continue to boom and companies rebuild depleted inventories.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Value -1.18%

Sector Underperformers:

Coal (-2.88%), Biotech (-2.30%) and Energy (-2.15%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

OII, NVTL, VDSI, HDNG, PSYS, BPFH, CECO, LNET, LULU, SWIR, LAD, FMR, SWY, DGX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Growth (+.14%)

Sector Outperformers:

Semis (+1.81%), Wireless (+1.63%) and Disk Drives (+1.24%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

ITRI, ANSS, RIMM, IVN, MDRX, MC, SWC, ADI, KLAC, ONB, ATLS, PQ, CGV, ICLR, NTES, WBMD, CTCT, HLTH, JAKK, VRGY, SHPGY, AXYS, FADV, NDAQ, CSGP, SNPS, ARII, HURN, AFSI, CPS, TCI, VCI and FBN

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Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Japan’s export growth unexpectedly quickened for the first time in three months. Exports, which contributed almost half of the economy’s expansion last quarter, rose 7.7% in January from a year earlier after increasing 6.9% in December, the Finance Ministry said.
- Hertz Global(HTZ), North America’s second largest car-rental company, said fourth-quarter profit doubled.
- MBIA Inc.(MBI) said today that an initial review of the recommendations for a restructuring of the financial guarantors as prepared by Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management, LP and presented to the NY State Insurance Dept. is no more credible than his flawed open source model.
- Ethanol made from sugar-cane will provide as much as 15% of Brazil’s energy needs within 15 years, the president of Brazil’s Sugar Cane Industry Assoc. said.
- Chindia Lust Sees Commonsense Go Out the Window. The draw of cheap Chinese and Indian labor is so strong, and the media hype surrounding it so relentless, that some starry-eyed, developed-country executives are losing sight of the bottom line.
- The yen traded near a three-week low against the euro after a rally in Asian stocks restored confidence in buying higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
- NetEase.com Inc.(NTES) and Sina Corp.(SINA) rose in US after-hours trading as surging Web usage in China spurred sales of online games and advertising in the world’s second-biggest Internet market by users.
- Terex Corp.(TEX), the world’s third-largest maker of construction equipment, said fourth-quarter earnings rose 72%. The profit and 2008 forecast topped analysts’ estimates, and Terex gained 6.4% in after-hours trading.
- Synopsys Inc.(SNPS), a world leader in software and IP for semiconductor design and manufacturing, said first quarter revenue rose 5.1% from year-ago levels. The shares jumped 6.4% in extended trading.
- Analog Devices(ADI), the maker of chips for communications-equipment companies such as Cisco Systems(CSCO), said first-quarter profit more than doubled after it sold two businesses. The shares rose 4% in after-hours trading.

Wall Street Journal:
- Poterba Succeeds Feldstein at Recession Caller NBER.

NY Times:
- California business schools are taking global education to a new level, offering courses that go beyond case studies and collaborating with universities abroad, particularly in Asia.

BusinessWeek.com:
- The Dawn of Green Mobile Networks. Escalating oil prices are pushing operators to use alternative energies to power cellular base stations in remote areas of the world.
- Activists Target the ‘Genocide Olympics’ Saying China’s oil purchases support violence in Darfur, human-rights groups are pressuring McDonald’s(MCD) and other sponsors of the Games.
- What Downturn? IT Pros Upbeat on Work. A new survey shows tech workers remain in demand and few are worried about where the next job will come from.

Portfolio.com:
- Chart of the day: Jerome Kerviel’s real P&L at SocGen.

denverpost.com:
- ConocoPhillips(COP) has purchased the former StorageTek campus in Louisville and plans to use the site as its global learning and technology center. The Houston-based company intends to use the property as part of a major push surrounding renewable energy, Gov. Bill Ritter said.

USA Today.com:
- Best cities for bargain housing: Salt Lake City, Raleigh. Property sharks looking to take advantage of local housing slumps are doing their best to time the market, searching for the precise moment when prices bottom out before taking a bite.
- New Chinese investors learn tough stock lessons.

Reuters:
- Microsoft(MSFT) Xbox Live aims to double user base.
- Clinton attacks Obama as all talk, little substance.

Arab News:
- A well-regarded Saudi religious scholar said that there is nothing in Islamic law that bans women from driving and that the fatwas issued in this regard are based on individual judgments.

Economic Daily News:
- AU Optronics(AUO), the world’s third biggest LCD maker, may raise liquid-crystal display prices next month because of “tight” supply of panels, citing COO Chen Lai-juh. AU Optronics stopped cutting LCD prices for clients this month, he said.

China Daily:
- China’s inflation rate may slow “notably” from the middle of the year, citing a government researcher. Price gains may cool as food supplies increase and the effects of the nation’s snowstorms diminish.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Upgraded (CSCO) to Buy, target $27.
- Reiterated Buy on (ADI), target $37.
- Maintained Buy on (TJX), target $38.
- Downgraded (TGT) to Sell, target $48.
- Reiterated Buy on (WMT), target raised to $57.
- Core US search engine query growth accelerated in January up 23% Y/Y and up 9% M/M. This marks a rebound vs. the query growth deceleration we observed in November and December and compare favorably vs. Q4 search query growth of 20% Y/Y. GOOG’s US market share increased 10 bps M/M to 58.5%(up 590 bps Y/Y). Excluding the impact of DNS Error Searches no included in core MSFT, AOL, and Ask search results, Google share gains would have been modestly higher. Following a slight “hiccup” in December query share, we view this as a positive datapoint for GOOG which continues to grow materially faster than the overall market(GOOG US queries up 37% Y/Y, vs. market up 23%). YHOO’s share declined 70 bps M/M to 22.2%, and represents the lowest % share we have tracked. Excluding the impact of DNS Error Searches, Yahoo!’s share loss would have been somewhat less. In addition to the M/M share loss, the increase of nearly 2% Y/Y remains materially behind the overall market’s 23% Y/Y January growth rate.. MSFT share was 9.8%, flat M/M; however, the inclusion of DNS Error Searches in its core search results added modestly to January results, suggesting an organic, modest market share loss in the month. MSFT’s query growth accelerated from 8% Y/Y growth in December to nearly 16% Y/Y growth in January.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +2.25% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.25%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (PWR)/.13
- (EME)/.66
- (DGX)/.78
- (WMB)/.48
- (DNR)/.35
- (EV)/.49
- (RS)/1.04
- (RUTH)/.21
- (WBMD)/.29
- (CHK)/.81
- (CLF)/1.54
- (INTU)/.37
- (FST)/.76
- (ESRX)/.64
- (MORN)/.43
- (SWY)/.68
- (JCP)/1.76
- (WCG)/1.62
- (ZLC)/1.11
- (NEM)/.41
- (MGM)/.43
- (FIG)/.20

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- Initial Jobless Claims for this week are estimated to rise to 349K versus 348K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2760K versus 2761K prior.

10:00 am EST
- Philly Fed for February is estimated to rise to -10.0 versus -20.9 in January.
- Leading Indicators for January are estimated to fall .1% versus a .2% decline in December.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil build of 2,300,000 barrels versus a 1,066,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise by 450,000 barrels versus a 1,749,000 barrel build the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,800,000 barrels versus a -166,000 barrel decline the prior week. Refinery Utilization is expected to remain unch. versus a .74% increase the prior week. Finally, Natural Gas supplies are expected to fall by -173 bcf versus a -120 withdrawal the prior week.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (SVR) analyst meeting, (CR) analyst conference, (CBE) investor meeting, (MDZ) analyst meeting, CIBC Institutional Investor Conference, DA Davidson Electronic System Design Conference, Oppenheimer Semi Summit, Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference, Susquehanna Footwear Conference, EnerCom Oil Service Conference, Roth Capital Growth Stock Conference and Longbow Construction Materials Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs, Boosted by Technology, Commodity, Retail, Homebuilder and Financial Shares

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In Play

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Retail longs. I covered my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is slightly above average, despite stock gains. Today’s overall market action is very bullish. The VIX is falling 1.7% today, but remains high at 25.2. The ISE Sentiment Index is a below average 100.0, but the total put/call is a below-average .88 today. Tech, retailers, financials, homebuilders and commodities are substantially outperforming today. Market-leading stocks are especially strong. The market’s reaction to the news is always much more important than the actual news. Asian indices fell 2-3% last night and European bourses closed about 1.5% lower today. The CPI exceeded estimates, credit market angst is relatively high and oil is rising to $100.75/bbl., yet the major averages are solidly higher. This is another trading day that illustrates how much bad news is already factored into US stock prices at current valuations. Weekly retail sales rose .7% this week versus a .6% gain the prior week and a .5% gain two weeks ago. Sales are still sluggish, but headed in the right direction. Nikkei futures indicate an +220 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +108 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on bargain-hunting, less economic pessimism, constructive Fed commentary and short-covering.