Monday, December 12, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on Rising Energy Prices and Apprehension Ahead of Fed Meeting

Indices
S&P 500 1,256.87 -.20%
DJIA 10,743.68 -.32%
NASDAQ 2,256.83 +.01%
Russell 2000 687.99 -.12%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,593.73 -.18%
S&P Barra Growth 602.06 -.01%
S&P Barra Value 650.73 -.34%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 590.06 -.12%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 778.47 -.28%
Morgan Stanley Technology 535.01 +.47%
Transports 4,062.55 -.97%
Utilities 407.35 -.60%
Put/Call .69 -13.75%
NYSE Arms .99 -3.59%
Volatility(VIX) 11.65 -.34%
ISE Sentiment 198.00 +1.02
US Dollar 90.27 -1.07%
CRB 331.92 +1.27%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.40 +1.70%
Unleaded Gasoline 162.70 +1.38%
Natural Gas 14.83 +3.62%
Heating Oil 175.50 +1.34%
Gold 531.50 +.25%
Base Metals 151.76 -1.53%
Copper 198.60 -2.17%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.55% +.74%

Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +.97%
Energy +.73%
Gaming +.46%

Lagging Sectors
Telecom -.66%
Banks -.72%
HMOs -1.13%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Medical longs, Internet longs and Semi longs. I added RGLD short this morning and added to a few existing longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are lower and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Overall, today’s market action is slightly negative considering overnight gains in Asia and higher energy prices. The Energy sector saw the greatest insider selling in the S&P 500 for the week ending Dec. 9. Total insider sales for the group were $79,691,434 last week. Total insider purchases were $0. This is the largest amount of insider selling in Energy I have seen in quite some time. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- OPEC may end an offer to tap 2 million barrels a day of spare output capacity because there isn’t sufficient demand, the group’s President Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah said.
- Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are headed for their first annual decline in US soft-drink sales in at least four decades as health-conscious consumers switch to bottled water, sports drinks and juices.
- US strategists, who correctly called the stock market’s performance this year, are getting more bullish for 2006.
- Ford Motor may save more than $1 billion annually on US health care under an agreement reached with the UAW, analysts said.
- Merck suffered a setback when a judge declared a mistrial in the third case involving its Vioxx painkiller, after a jury said they’d deadlocked on whether the drug caused a Florida man’s death.
- Time Warner and Comcast are among six cable companies that plan to offer a separate tier of family-friendly programs, an industry group said.
- The dollar is falling the most in more than two months against the euro on speculation the Fed may say tomorrow that interest rates are no longer stimulating the US economy.

Wall Street Journal:
- Alteria Group’s Philip Morris USA will make its first drug-delivery product by partnering with Pennsylvania-based Discovery Labs Inc. to create new ways of delivering medicine to premature babies with breathing problems.
- Tommy Hilfiger has three possible offers.
- News Corp.’s HarperCollins Publishers said it will produce digital copies of its books and then make them available to search services offered by companies such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon.com.
- The avian flu virus in China is stable at present, not mutating toward a form readily transmissible among humans, according to Shu Yuelong, the head of China’s national influenza laboratory.

NY Post:
- Consumer Reports will begin offering product ratings, pricing information and store availability through wireless phones.

NY Times:
- Three private-equity firms and Dunkin Donuts are near an agreement for the sale of the donut chain for about $2 billion.
- Samsung Electronics and Toshiba are spending billions on new factories and more engineers as competition intensifies to develop more powerful NAND flash memory chips.
- The MSNBC cable news network will spend almost $1 million on its most concentrated Internet advertising blitz to date, promoting three of its prime-time shows on hundreds of Web sites and Web logs.

USA Today:
- Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi said he envisions the nation having three semi-independent regions that handle internal security and have more control over funding.

Boston Globe:
- Corporate spending on computer servers, networking and storage equipment, and software may rise 11% next year to $546.9 billion, citing Moody’s Economy.com research firm.

Chronicle of Higher Education:
- The Ford Foundation gave 26 schools including Yale University, Trinity University and Northwestern University grants of $100,000 for projects that promote academic freedom, religious tolerance and environments in which difficult subjects can be discussed openly.

AFP:
- Iraqis working in hospitals, the military and those in prisons started voting today before full elections for a parliament that will restore sovereignty to the country.

Economic Releases

- None of note

Links of Interest

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Sunday, December 11, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Two-thirds of US company executives surveyed said they intend to increase capital spending over the next 12 months, according to Baruch College’s Zicklin School of Business. The average increase is expected to be 9%.
- Microsoft released its Xbox 360 game console in Japan today, about three months ahead of Sony’s PlayStation 3.
- Wal-Mart Stores said December same-store sales at its US stores are rising within its forecast.
- Saudi Arabia joined other members from OPEC in saying the group should maintain current production to meet demand during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
- The Fed may say monetary policy is no longer stimulating the economy after it raises interest rates for the 13th time, according to more than half of Wall Street’s biggest bond trading firms.
- Viacom’s Paramount Pictures agreed to buy DreamWorks SKG for $1.6 billion in cash and debt, wresting the movie studio away from NBC Universal and securing the talents of Steven Spielberg.
- Walt Disney’s “The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe” opened as the No. 1 film in the US and Canadian theaters with an estimated $67.1 million in ticket sales, the second-best December debut ever.
- Louisiana is among three US states interested in being the site of a joint venture refinery with Kuwait.

Wall Street Journal:
- Delphi Corp. CEO Miller said he’s putting together a new contract proposal for UAW at the No. 1 US auto-parts maker.
- ConocoPhilliops is in advanced discussions to acquire Burlington Resources, an oil and gas producer, for more than $30 billion.

Barron’s:
- US stocks will rise 5% to 25% next year as the economy expands, corporate profits mount and the Fed ends its string of short-term rate increases, Wall Street strategists said.

NY Times:
- Senator Joe Lieberman, a Democrat from Connecticut, has angered many Democratic activists and alienated some from his party in Congress over his support for the US liberation of Iraq.
- US courts have become less cooperative with prosecutors seeking the right to gain cellular-phone tracking information from wireless companies without showing “probable cause.”
- California’s $3 billion stem-cell institute, beset by lawsuits, criticism and bureaucracy since its formation more than a year ago, has yet to spend a single dollar on research.
- The campaigning for candidates and parties in Iraq’s parliamentary elections next week has been sophisticated with text messages being sent to cell phones, and chaotic with gunfire and murders.
- FEMA will extend its deadline for paying for hotel rooms for most survivors of Hurricane Katrina.
- Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio Holdings are about to leap forward, as Howard Stern joins Sirius and both companies introduce portable receivers.
- About 6,000 subway and bus workers voted yesterday to authorize the union to strike if an agreement isn’t reached with New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority on a new contract by Dec. 15.

NY Post:
- The board of Albertson’s, the second-biggest US supermarket chain, is meeting this weekend to evaluate final bids from a number of investment firms.

Washington Post:
- Clerics from Iraq’s majority Shiite and minority Sunni sects of Islam are using their pulpits in the country’s mosques to urge voters to back their respective blocs in the Dec. 15 parliamentary elections.
- American Online co-founder Steve Case wrote that parent company Time Warner should be split into four independent companies.

Financial Times:
- Richard Branson, the UK billionaire who owns a majority stake in Virgin Mobile Holdings Plc, may have to accept a lower price for his stake to push through a takeover offer from NTL Inc.

Canadian Press:
- Canada plans to allow government departments to cancel contracts with US companies if they pass data about Canadian citizens to US anti-terrorism investigators.

Iran Daily:
- Iran has started construction work on a 360-megawatt nuclear power plant in Khuzestan province, citing the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization.

Korea Economic Daily:
- Hynix Semiconductor of South Korea plans to increase production of NAND flash memory to 40% of total output next year from 30% now on rising demand from consumer electronics makers.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on WMT.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on CRL and PKG.

Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.28%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.29%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
JJZ/.10
TDS/.29
USM/.37

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Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for November is estimated to widen to -$80.0 billion versus -$57.9 billion in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, led by exporting shares in the region after oil fell below $60/bbl. and US consumer confidence exceeded estimates last Fri. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and build on gains throughout the day. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

There are a number of important economic reports and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - Monthly Budget Statement
Tues. - Advance Retail Sales, Business Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision
Wed. - Trade Balance, Import Price Index
Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, Empire Manufacturing, Net Foreign Security Purchases, Industrial Production, Philly Fed
Fri. - Current Account Balance

A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Jacuzzi Brands(JJZ), Telephone & Data Systems(TDS), US Cellular(USM)
Tues. - ADC Telecom(ADCT), CKE Restaurants(CKR), Cooper Companies(COO), Engineered Support(EASI), Lehman Brothers(LEH), Martek Biosciences(MATK)
Wed. - Freddie Mac(FRE), Mercury Interactive(MERQE)
Thur. - Apollo Group(APOL), Bear Stearns(BSC), Best Buy(BBY), Darden Restaurants(DRI), Goldman Sachs(GS), Herman Miller(MLHR), KB Home(KBH), Lennar Corp.(LEN), Oracle Corp.(ORCL), Pier 1 Imports(PIR), Rite Aid(RAD)
Fri. - Carnival Corp.(CCL), Cintas Corp.(CTAS), Family Dollar(FDO), GTECH Holdings(GTK), Quiksilver Inc.(ZQK), Steelcase(SCS), Take-Two Interactive(TTWO)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - UBS Server Technologies Conference
Tue. - None of note
Wed. - None of note
Thur. - RBC Silver Conference
Fri. - RBC Silver Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week higher on increasing demand for US assets, less hawkish Fed comments, short-covering, moderating inflation fears and increasing inflows. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.