Sunday, February 03, 2013

Weekly Outlook


U.S. Week Ahead by Reuters (video)

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on global growth fears, China-Japan/Mideast tensions, rising Eurozone debt angst, profit-taking, technical selling and more shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, February 02, 2013

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,513.17 +.68%*


Photobucket

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.


*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 1,513.17 +.68%
  • DJIA 14,009.79 +.82%
  • NASDAQ 3,179.10 +.93%
  • Russell 2000 911.20 +.66%
  • Value Line Geometric(broad market) 395.12 +.58%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 693.07 +.63%
  • Russell 1000 Value 768.98 +.65%
  • Morgan Stanley Consumer 901.94 +1.34%
  • Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,123.23 -.25%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 728.41 -.59%
  • Transports 5,857.23 -.22%
  • Utilities 474.53 +.95%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 97.06 -.90%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 44.34 +.53%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias 1,117.21 +.38%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias 828.93 +.56%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 172,132 +.51%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 416 -657
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 41.9 -16.3%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 267,989 +8.9%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,553,636 +4.1%
  • Total Put/Call .90 +3.4%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.20 +66.6%
  • ISE Sentiment 108.0 -32.1%
  • NYSE Arms .85 +41.7%
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.90 +.08%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.42 -1.6%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.82 -.1%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 11,2989.41 -.17%
  • Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.695 Trillion unch.
  • AAII % Bulls 48.0 -8.2%
  • AAII % Bears 24.3 unch.
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 305.07 +1.92%
  • Crude Oil 97.77 +1.75%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 305.36 +5.79%
  • Natural Gas 3.30 -4.18%
  • Heating Oil 316.06 +3.1%
  • Gold 1,670.60 +.77%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 219.66 +1.57%
  • Copper 378.45 +3.41%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 349.33 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 153.20 USD/Ton +3.10%
  • Lumber 362.70 +1.23%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,600.13 +1.80%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 8.3% +110 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .4991 -9.73%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 112.85 +.29%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.1 -26.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 52.0% chance of no change, 48.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/20
  • US Dollar Index 79.12 -.77%
  • Yield Curve 175.0 +8 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.01% +6 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.991 Trillion -.09%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.50 +.24%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 161.0 -.79%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 102.37 +3.75%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 171.86 +8.73%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 127.76 +6.18%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 506.25 +7.57%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 389.0 +10 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.57% +5 basis points
  • TED Spread 23.0 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 -1.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 86.82 +2.14%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 145.40 +6.82%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 227.10 +6.62%
  • CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 90.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $2.471 Trillion +.61%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,124.90 -.10%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 352,000 +200
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.5% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.53% +11 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 822.10 -8.1%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -37.5 -1.1 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.9% unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $3.46/gallon +.13/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 750.0 -6.01%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,142.40 +.89%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
  • Rail Freight Carloads 238,789 -4.25%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +1.1%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +.16%
Leading Sectors
  • I-Banks +3.8%
  • Energy +2.9%
  • Steel +2.5%
  • Oil Service +2.3%
  • Telecom +1.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Networking -2.1% 
  • Coal -2.5%
  • Computer Hardware -2.7%
  • Defense -2.7%
  • Disk Drives -5.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (30)
  • FURX, WMS, MGAM, FSL, ADNC, UIS, HES, CIA, PFMT, GK, FTNT, VCBI, ALGN, IIIN, ABAX, ENDP, JDSU, MAN, EVR, CPRT, TSCO, FIVE, AVY, DHI, CRR, MANH, CXS, NLNK, RHI and STAN
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (30)
  • LMT, PII, AMZN, INGR, BCO, KLIC, CBF, CNQR, ASH, PETM, AVB, WBSN, NOW, NEU, HAR, NTGR, TWC, CODE, CPSI, JOSB, EXPO, MW, CEVA, CBT, STZ, LXK, RDEN, VMW, LQDT and LTM
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Friday, February 01, 2013

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Diminishing Global Growth Fears, Short-Covering, Financial/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 12.74 -10.78%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -3.62%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -5.49%
  • NYSE Arms .94 -14.17%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.42 -2.72%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 145.57 -.62%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 102.0 -.79%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 225.42 -2.14%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 -.75 bp
  • TED Spread 23.5 +.25 bp
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 -2.25 bps
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -1 bp
  • Yield Curve 173.0 +1 bp
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $153.2/Metric Tonne +.46%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.1 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +104 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +4 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.83%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -1.20% 2) Disk Drives -1.15% 3) Retail +.13%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • HA, RL, COH, FIO, BCS, CVI, SD, CTCM, TWC, LTM, NMM, SDR, ALKS, VPRT, HTSI, BCO, DWRE, CPSI, SIMO, BCR, OPLK, NOV, GNC, PKI, MRK, MW, WYNN, PER, MCK, SDT, CHTR, AON, AT, CAB, BRLI and BCO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) RL 2) GDI 3) NOV 4) IYT 5) HOG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HTSI 2) BA 3) RBN 4) POT 5) VALE
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.79%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Insurance +1.59% 2) Banks +1.27% 3) Software +1.23%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DELL, ADNC, CTRP, PRGO, MTW, CAVM, CB, CRR, MTW, RDEN, PRGO, DELL and RGA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) RAD 2) ALL 3) MAT 4) UUP 5) CAVM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) T 2) CB 3) CVX 4) MSFT 5) BEN
Charts: