Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead (audio) by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Russia-Ukraine/Mideast tensions, rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst, global growth worries, Fed rate hike concerns, yen strength and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,982.85 -1.37%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,982.85 -1.37%

• DJIA 17,113.15 -.96%

• NASDAQ 4,512.19 -1.48%

• Russell 2000 1,119.33 -2.40%

• S&P 500 High Beta 33.42 -1.68%

• Wilshire 5000 20,596.10 -1.56%

• Russell 1000 Growth 925.20 -1.19%

• Russell 1000 Value 992.28 -1.80%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 465.18 -.78%

• Solactive US Cyclical 135.67 -1.68%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 971.68 -1.48%

• Transports 8,484.91 -1.72%

• Utilities 547.95 -1.61%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 111.07 -1.13%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.54 -2.84%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,181.48 -.10%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 975.37 +.22%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 225,081 -1.54%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -773 -714

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 42.31 +5.78%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 296,052 -.41%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,480,629 -3.14%

• Total Put/Call 1.12 +36.59%

• OEX Put/Call 2.44 +287.30%

• ISE Sentiment 82.0 +1.23%

• NYSE Arms .73 -20.65%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.85 +22.63%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.74 +15.57%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.66 +5.51%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.80 +6.85%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,347.14 -1.92%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.591 Trillion +.59%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.980 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 41.8 -.9%

• AAII % Bears 28.2 +22.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 280.28 +.31%

• Crude Oil 93.54 +1.18%

• Reformulated Gasoline 266.19 +2.40%

• Natural Gas 4.03 +4.81%

• Heating Oil 270.05 -.61%

• Gold 1,214.10 -.15%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 193.82 -1.30%

• Copper 303.55 -1.70%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 78.60 USD/Ton -3.79%

• Lumber 327.20 -.55%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,158.91 -1.10%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.1% +40.0 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1221 +2.0%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 128.71 +.05%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.20 +6.2 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.0 -5.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.80 +4.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 85.64 +1.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.72 -.91%

• Yield Curve 195.0 -6.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.53% -4.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.418 Trillion +.22%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.54 -1.94%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 170.0 +6.25%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 28.08 +4.79%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 69.12 +10.41%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 231.13 +4.28%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.50 +1.92%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 346.84 +7.01%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 239.82 +.42%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.85 +1.8%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97% -6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 23.0 +.75 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 +2.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 65.79 +17.07%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 63.11 +11.58%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 263.54 +1.85%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 82.50 +.5 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.893 Trillion +1.27%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,057.70 +.60%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 298,500 -1,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.20% -3 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 338.40 -4.11%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 35.5 -1.5 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.10% -10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.34/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,038 -3.44%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,104.76 unch.

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.50 -12.50%

• Rail Freight Carloads 279,777 +.26%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -1.20%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -2.8%

Leading Sectors

• Biotech +.4%

• Restaurants -.3%

• Gaming -.7%

• Drugs -.7%

• Road & Rail -.9%

Lagging Sectors

• Hospitals -4.1% 

• Airlines -4.2%

• Homebuilders -4.3%

• Coal -4.4%

• Steel -5.4%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (21)

• AVNR, CNCE, AUXL, CNVR, GRT, ULTA, EPIQ, TGTX, APOG, AVID, QDEL, DD, ALR, BBG, TAP, DRC, TNET, PODD, GDOT, NUE and HDS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (23)

• AGNC, HCN, FR, SKX, DDR, TEN, MDU, DEI, ADBE, ALOG, NEWM, BRC, EPR, RTRX, CTRE, OI, WPG, RATE, UVV, PETX, PIR, RAX and BBSI

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Quarter-End Window-Dressing, Central Bank Hopes, Yen Weakness, Gaming/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.34 -8.31%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.83 +.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 +1.57%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.33 -8.73%

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +26.09%

• Total Put/Call 1.05 -7.89%

• NYSE Arms .75 -64.77% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.61 +3.05%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.24 +3.80%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.08 -1.09%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.82 +5.62%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 265.26 +3.40%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 310.85 +.87%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 23.0 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.

• Yield Curve 195.0 unch.

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $78.60/Metric Tonne unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.20 -.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.80 +.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98 -3.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• U.K. Prepares to Strike Islamist Militants in Iraq After Parliament Backs Action. (video) The U.K. is preparing to begin airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Iraq, after Parliament voted overwhelmingly to support action. The House of Commons backed a government motion authorizing attacks on the Sunni extremist group by 524 votes to 43 today. Prime Minister David Cameron earlier told lawmakers in London they should be prepared for a long fight.

• Draghi May Discover Weaker Euro Doesn’t Buy Enough Recovery. (video) Mario Draghi may find a falling currency can’t buy much of an economic recovery. The euro has dropped toward a two-year low against the dollar since the European Central Bank president boosted stimulus earlier this month. Economics textbooks say that should lift Europe’s struggling growth rate by boosting exports and speed inflation by raising import prices. Such effects will be more welcome if falling commodities deal a disinflationary blow. 

• European Stocks Climb as U.S. Economy Grows; Total Rises. European stocks rose, rebounding from a four-week low, as data showed the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at the fastest rate since the last three months of 2011. Total SA advanced 2.3 percent following a report that it may sell a stake in the Gulf of Mexico’s Tahiti oil field. Air France-KLM Group dropped 1.7 percent after the board said pilot demands don’t fit with its plan for a low-cost model. J Sainsbury Plc lost 3.1 percent as data from researcher Nielsen Holdings NV showed 12-week sales at the grocer fell 1.8 percent. A gauge of retail companies fell the most of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. The Stoxx 600 climbed 0.3 percent to 342.3 at the close of trading, after earlier rising and falling as much as 0.5 percent.

• Dollar Climbs as Growth Bolsters Rate Speculation; Yen Weakens. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, jumped 0.5 percent to 1,067.58 at 1:37 p.m. New York time, headed for its highest close in four years and a sixth-straight week of increases, the most since November 2012. It has climbed 3.7 percent in September and 6.4 percent this quarter.

• Corn Prices Slump to Five-Year Low on Bumper U.S. Crop. Corn futures for December delivery dropped 0.9 percent to close at $3.23 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. Earlier, the price touched $3.2275, the lowest for a most-active contract since Sept. 24, 2009.

• Pimco's Ivascyn on Shortlist to Succeed Gross; Has Beaten 99% of Peers Over Past 3 Years. (video) Pacific Investment Management Co. is likely to name Daniel Ivascyn chief investment officer of the $1.97 trillion bond firm after Bill Gross left to join Janus Capital Group Inc. (JNS), according to a person familiar with the matter.

CNBC:

• Lots of 'ticking time bombs' out there: Sternlicht. (video)

ZeroHedge: 

• How Goldman Controls The New York Fed: 47.5 Hours Of "The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes" Explain.

• What Comes Next? (graph)

• ISIS Comes To America? Oklahoma Man Beheads Woman After Being Fired.

• Ukraine PM Cries "Russia Wants Us To Freeze" As Locals Prepare For A Long, Cold Winter.

• 3 Things Worth Thinking About. (graph)

• "Major Risk Should The Market Drop": BofA On Fresh Record Low In NYSE Investor "Net Worth". (graph)

MailOnline:

• Now Taliban try to seize ISIS crown for brutality as they launch massive offensive and behead civilians. Taliban fighters have beheaded 15 civilians in battles for control of a key district near Kabul in a chilling echo of the brutality meted out by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The Ghazni provincial government said it has lost contact with police in the province's western district of Ajrestan after hundreds of insurgents stormed several villages in the area. The attack by an estimated 700 Taliban fighters began about five days ago and early reports were that more than 100 people had been killed, provincial deputy governor Ahmadullah Ahmadi said. At least 15 of those were decapitated, he added.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.09%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Hospitals -1.91% 2) Gold & Silver -1.63% 3) Steel -.63%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• PHK, PTY, PCN, PFL, FINL, PDI, CPA, ATU, CLF, GPRO, STWD, RAVN, CNL, NORD, NSIT, ACOR, SHLD, KORS, NLNK, PBYI, RENT, GOLD and MAT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AVP 2) NLY 3) HYG 4) MMM 5) XLB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FINL 2) MMM 3) QCOM 4) TECD 5) ATU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume