Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead (audio) by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as escalating Ebola fears, global growth worries and rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst offset bargain-hunting, short-covering and central bank hopes. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead (audio) by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as escalating Ebola fears, global growth worries and rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst offset bargain-hunting, short-covering and central bank hopes. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 1,886.76 -1.02%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,886.76 -1.02%

• DJIA 16,380.40 -.99%

• NASDAQ 4,258.33 -.42%

• Russell 2000 1,082.33 +2.75%

• S&P 500 High Beta 31.16 +.39%

• Wilshire 5000 19,613.60 -1.76%

• Russell 1000 Growth 880.22 -.74%

• Russell 1000 Value 943.75 -.78%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 460.04 -2.25%

• Solactive US Cyclical 128.29 +1.90%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 904.90 -1.02%

• Transports 8,147.84 +3.23%

• Utilities 562.56 +.16%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 101.85 -2.01%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.59 -1.22%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,137.32 -2.70%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 979.52 +.03%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 219,225 +.74%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -997 +13

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls n/a

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 278,780 -5.07%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,537,452 +2.24%

• Total Put/Call 1.19 -1.65%

• OEX Put/Call 2.10 +47.89%

• ISE Sentiment 92.0 +33.33%

• NYSE Arms .62 -53.38%

• Volatility(VIX) 21.99 +17.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 68.35 +6.83%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.76 +4.72%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.48 +3.16%

• Smart Money Flow Index 10,942.49 -3.10%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.609 Trillion -.83%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$.533 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 42.7 +7.0%

• AAII % Bears 33.7 +8.8%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 272.64 -1.37%

• Crude Oil 82.75 -3.24%

• Reformulated Gasoline 223.227 -.92%

• Natural Gas 3.77 -2.44%

• Heating Oil 249.76 -2.43%

• Gold 1,239.0 +1.28%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 188.80 -1.19%

• Copper 300.35 -1.12%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 348.40 USD/Ton -2.95%

• China Iron Ore Spot 80.82 USD/Ton+.72%

• Lumber 334.60 -2.45%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,210.63 +1.94%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.6% -20 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .5151 -3.27%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 128.41 -.28%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.60 +1.5 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.10 +2.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.80 +6.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 85.11 -.82%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.38 +.30%

• Yield Curve 182.0 -4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.19% -9.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.432 Trillion +.41%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.62 +10.69%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 177.0 +2.22%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 33.65 +29.07%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 73.81 +3.67%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 237.35 -.03%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.65 -2.87%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 363.48 +2.73%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 258.16 +.32%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 353.84 +7.65%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93% -3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 21.0 -1.5 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.25 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.79 -1.51%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 73.32 +5.65%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 261.75 -1.44%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 83.0 -.5 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.845 Trillion -.04%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,060.50 -2.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 283,500 -4,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.97% -15 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 370.40 +5.62%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 36.2 -.6 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.80% -60 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.14/gallon -.10/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 930 -3.43%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,021.02 -3.56%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 273,436 -1.17%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +3.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.8%

Leading Sectors

• Road & Rail +5.7%

• Homebuilders +5.1%

• Alt Energy +3.4%

• Gaming +3.4%

• Semis +2.5%

Lagging Sectors

• Computer Services -1.4% 

• Energy -1.8%

• Internet -2.9%

• Drugs -3.0%

• Medical Equipment -3.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)

• NLNK, EXAS, CUDA, ANGO, DPZ, EGL, CSX, AEL and MSTR

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (44)

• NOG, TXN, CCS, AVT, MTZ, A, NATI, LNCO, ABBV, PLCM, ACM, ISIL, FCS, AMTD, HDS, SAVE, ARW, CRK, CAVM, FAST, LMNX, CIE, KODK, MPWR, LYB, PTEN, HAL, BHI, SN, QEP, LAD, FET, NFX, JONE, CJES, MCHP, EXAC, MTW, BAS, KN, NFLX, SSE, ESPR and NTCT

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less Eurozone/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Homebuilding/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.60 -10.32%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.26 +.04%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.40 -2.78%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 69.42 +2.86%

• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +38.03%

• Total Put/Call 1.11 +9.90%

• NYSE Arms .67 -57.21% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.75 -3.88%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.58 -6.97%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.65 -2.18%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 74.32 -2.76%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 262.54 -6.20%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 353.83 +1.41%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 20.75 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.

• Yield Curve 183.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $80.82/Metric Tonne +.62%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.60 +2.3 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.1 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.80 +1.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.93 +3 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +215 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -73 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long