Weekly Outlook

• Week Ahead on Wall Street by CNBC(video).
• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Week Ahead by TheStreet.
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on tax reform hopes, oil gains, seasonal strength, buyout speculation, short-covering and economic optimism. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Home Prices Stop Three-Month Drop as Market Stabilizes. Chinese home prices rose in more cities in October, snapping a three-month decline, a sign the market is stabilizing amid government efforts to curb property speculation. New-home prices, excluding state-subsidized housing, climbed in 50 of the 70 cities tracked by the government, compared with 44 in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday. Prices fell in 14 cities from the previous month and were unchanged in six. The moderate gains show China is having some success in its bid to rein in the buoyant property market without forcing a sharp deceleration. Prices had been coming off after the government imposed restrictions on purchases earlier in the year. Giving support to that campaign, President Xi Jinping used his speech to the twice-a-decade Communist Party congress last month to say that homes are meant “to be inhabited, not for speculation.”

• Goldman Sachs(GS) Sees Four 2018 Fed Rate Hikes as U.S. Growth Gains. The U.S. economy is heading into 2018 with strong momentum that’s likely to boost wages and inflation more broadly, requiring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates four times next year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said in a research note. The New York-based investment banking and securities firm raised its growth outlook for 2018 to 2.5 percent and lowered its forecast for unemployment to 3.7 percent by the end of 2018, said Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius, a co-author of the note, which was released by email late Friday. Before the latest revision the most recent Goldman Sachs forecast for 2018 growth was 2.4 percent, according to forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.

• American Drivers Boost Fuel Use to New High on Stronger Economy. American drivers took gasoline consumption to a new high as the U.S. economy strengthens and adds jobs. Demand for the motor fuel rose to the highest level on record for the month of October, the American Petroleum Institute said in a monthly report Friday. Consumption of distillate fuel, however, declined. "The economy continues to grow as fuel demand remains strong and more people find work," said API Director of Statistics Hazem Arafa. "Unemployment went down last month and gas prices remain relatively low benefiting American businesses and workers."

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump vs. the Deep Regulatory State. The tempestuous president is overseeing a principled, far-reaching reform of agencies that had exceeded their constitutional writ.

• Germany’s Green Energy Meltdown. Voters promised a virtuous revolution get coal and high prices instead.

• Trump Administration Ramps Up Dispute With Local Governments Over Sanctuary Policies. Justice Department issues letters to more than two dozen authorities saying immigration directives may violate federal law.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (IBM), (JWN), (WMT), (RH), (ROST), (GOOGL), (WDAY), (BHGE) and (ZEN).

• Had bearish commentary on (PG), (SNAP), (T), (ATUS), (GPRO), (APRN) and (CL).

MarketWatch.com: 

• Here’s how Apple(AAPL) gets to a $2 trillion market value.

• The best business schools of 2017, according to Bloomberg.

Fox News:

• Trump calls Clinton 'biggest loser of all time' after she contests election loss. (video)

• Roy Moore slams Gloria Allred, challenges her to release 'fake yearbook'. (video)

CNBC:

• Medicare Part B premiums jumping 23 percent for many retirees.

• Applied Materials(AMAT) CEO: 'The future of competition' is changing across industries, and it's fueling our business.

• Goldman Sachs(GS) says if you thought 2017 was surprisingly good, just wait for 2018.

Zero Hedge:

• FBI Informant Has Video Of Russian Agents With Briefcases Of Bribe Money In Clinton-Uranium Scandal.

• "Helpless, Raging" Charlottesville Families Shocked By These 2018 Obamacare Premiums..."It's Horrific".

• "We're Not Stupid" - Top US Nuclear Commander Would Disobey "Illegal" Trump Orders. 

• Dan Hannan Destroys The Growing Support For 'Socialism' In 100 Seconds. (video)

• China Is Testing Weapons That Can Reach The US In 14 Minutes.

• Another US Navy Warship Crashes.

• Hunting Angels: What The World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund Will Short Next.

• Amazon(AMZN)-opoly: Jeff Bezos May Be About To Control $53 Billion In Federal Government Spending.

• NYC Subway Managers Receive $300,000 Salaries While MTA Cuts Mechanics.

• Can You Do A Backflip? Because This Robot Can.

• Why People Will Happily Line Up To Be Microchipped Like Dogs.

• Saudi 'Corruption' Probe Widens: Dozens Of Military Officials Arrested.

• "We Paid A Heavy Price For This Mistake" - Europe To Be Flooded With 2nd Refugee Wave, UN Warns.

• "Beyond Resistance" - Soros, Pelosi Headline Left's Biggest Dark Money Conference.

• Weekend Reading: You Have Been Warned.

• Gold Gains As Stocks Slide, Yield Curve Crashes, & Dollar Dumps. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Walmart(WMT) is making a mockery of the retail apocalypse — and traders are betting it'll keep soaring.

• The US Marine Corps is 242 years old — here are 42 striking photos of its storied history. (pic)

• Mexican heroin is flooding the US, and the Sinaloa cartel is steering the flow.

• The number of teens who are depressed is soaring — and all signs point to smartphones.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,581.23 -.04%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 

Indices

• DJIA 23,367.70 -.24%

• NASDAQ 6,785.50 +.55%

• Russell 2000 1,492.74 +1.19%

• S&P 500 High Beta 40.31 +.50%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 131.53 +1.4%

• Wilshire 5000 26,738.50 +.12%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,314. +.11%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,172.44 -.02%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 564.25 +1.0%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3772 -.39%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,712.94 +1.48%

• Transports 9,500.20 unch.

• Utilities 759.10 +.32%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 97.73 -1.79%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 46.87 +.99%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,235.69 -.75%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,009.86 -.17%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 306,441 -.22%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 311 +255

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 13.89 -58.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 545,206 +8.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,601,977 +3.67%

• Total Put/Call .76 -33.62%

• OEX Put/Call .55 -36.25%

• ISE Sentiment 89.0 +8.43%

• NYSE Arms .66 -21.59%

• Volatility(VIX) 11.43 +1.15%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 16.17 -14.96%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.40 +3.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.95 -2.33%

• Smart Money Flow Index 20,273.28 +.80%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.739 Trillion -.05%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$4.313 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 29.4 -34.9%

• AAII % Bears 35.2 +52.6%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 190.43 -.67%

• Crude Oil 56.55 -.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 175.02 -4.48%

• Natural Gas 3.1 -3.04%

• Heating Oil 195.02 +.21%

• Gold 1,295.40 +1.50%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 199.66 -1.83%

• Copper 307.05 -.16%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 258.33 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 62.61 USD/Ton +.02%

• Lumber 439.70 -3.02%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,035.81 +.02%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.4% +10.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.7% -50.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .4297 -6.77% 

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 106.88 -37.87%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 143.63 +.17%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.0 +17.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.90 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.50 +.4 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/13

• US Dollar Index 93.61 -.82%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,629.86 +.32%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.80 -.18%

• Yield Curve 62.0 -12.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.34% -6.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.409 Trillion -.24%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.75 unch.

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 337.30 -.05%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 3.90 -3.7%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 15.75 -1.25%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 48.70 -6.99%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.87 +1.64%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.62 -8.14%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 134.01 -4.24%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.33 +.08%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88% -3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 17.0 -1.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 16.5 -3.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -48.0 -.25 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 55.16 -1.16%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 380.0 +4.38%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 51.21 -1.65%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 184.25 -4.07%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 155.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.566 Trillion -.43%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,032.60 -1.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 237,750 +6,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% -10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.95% +5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 401.70 +3.08%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 52.1 +.6 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.5% -10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.56/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 1,361.0 -7.04%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 794.47 +1.30%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 284,215 +4.46%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +5.0%

• Social Media +4.4%

• Disk Drives +4.1%

• Networking +4.0%

• Retail +3.9%

Lagging Sectors

• Gaming -.9% 

• Construction -1.7%

• Energy -2.6%

• Shipping -3.6%

• Oil Service -6.6%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

• CCT, TIME, NKTR, ROKU, MRTX, WVE, AYX, ARA, ZOES, IMMU, AAP, TCO, RICK, VREX, DKS and VMI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)

• SBH, JCI, LOXO, PETQ, TDW, TPC, INCR, DVAX, PSDO, SOI, WD, APPN, QUOT, MTSI, XON, SD, TTD, PBYI, ESL and NCSM

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change