Friday, December 08, 2017

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.65 -5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.23 +.34%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.96 -1.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.82 -.24%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 -25.71%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +12.0%
  • NYSE Arms .60 -33.42%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.06 -1.16%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 373.0 +.39%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 46.58 -2.05%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.44 -4.44%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.23 -.07%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 176.92 -.96%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.89 +.1%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.0 +2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -60.75 +2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.99 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.28% unch.
  • Yield Curve 58.5 +2.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 502.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +1.93%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.20 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.10 +.7 basis point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.70 +6.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +84 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Tobacco -.4% 2) Foods unch. 3) Papers unch.
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LJPC, VECO, AOBC, PRTY, COO, OKTA and FIZZ
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SO 2) LC 3) DUST 4) S 5) CL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AOBC 2) VECO 3) LJPC 4) RGR 5) BLL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Biotech +2.2% 2) Steel +1.7% 3) Software +1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CLDR, AGX, DEA, SAGE, FANH, SAIC, UBIO, VNOM, CUTR, RDUS, VRX, JACK, Y, NUE, OLED, MTN, RBA, UNFI, ALXN, DQ, JP, LITE, IHG, ATRA, BSX, SCMP, CARA and RVNC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ETSY 2) VWO 3) OLED 4) UPS 5) FNSR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SAGE 2) OLED 3) CELG 4) VNTV 5) BSX
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.25 unch
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 14.25 +.25 basis point
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.89 -.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST:
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for November is estimated to fall to 195K versus 261K in October.
  • The Unemployment Rate for November is estimated to remain at 4.1%.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for November is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in October.
10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for October are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.32% gain in September.
  • Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for December is estimated to rise to 99.0 versus 98.5 in November.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Govt. funding deadline, China Trade Balance report and the (STRA) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.43 -5.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.84 +.56%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.09 +.25%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.26 -.37%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 189.0 +152.0%
  • Total Put/Call .80 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .93 -33.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.68 -.76%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 372.0 +.50%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 46.58 -.16%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.60 -.55%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.24 +1.06%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 178.87 +.87%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.74 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 23.75 +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -63.0 -4.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.92 -.32%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.28% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 56.25 +3.75 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $72.68/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.20 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.40 -7.6 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.30 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +167 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +6 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long