Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:43 PM
Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) REITs -.5% 2) Foods -.4% 3) Steel -.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • QTS, LHO, JELD, SLCA, DVN, AIMT, KRA, NFX, BYD, UTHR, GRMN, SHOP, INOV and PTLA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AMLP 2) DIN 3) DUST 4) RCII 5) GIS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SIEN 2) LC 3) PTLA 4) BYD 5) VNOM
Charts:
0 comments

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:28 PM
Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +1.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail +2.3% 2) Social Media +2.0% 3) Alt Energy +1.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • HFRO, QUAD, WBAI, LPSN, NHF, UBNT, DIN, HSTM, CBRL, TXRH, HCKT, LXFT, TGTX, JUNO, AAP, LZB, TX, VYGR, WIRE, MCHI, NCI, CNDT, CHGG, KL, GNBC, FATE, WEX, UVE, ADMS, FOSL, AKBA, BHGE, CHGG, ACC, IRTC and APTI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BYD 2) WMT 3) AAP 4) MNST 5) RF
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ASTE 2) DIN 3) FINL 4) MOS 5) ABBV
Charts:
0 comments

Morning Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 10:32 AM
NYSE Composite Index:
0 comments

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Wednesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:54 PM
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Productivity Primed to Pick Up in U.S. and Europe, McKinsey Says. The era of anemic productivity growth may be coming to an end in the U.S. and Europe. So says the research arm of consultation company McKinsey & Co. in a new 147-page report. It argues that productivity could expand at a 2 percent-plus annual clip over the coming decade versus the roughly 0.5 percent pace in recent years. “We are very optimistic” about the potential for achieving significant gains, Jaana Remes, a partner at McKinsey Global Institute in San Francisco, said in an interview.
  • Asia Stocks to Drop; Dollar Gains as Yields Rise. Asian stock futures indicate a lower open after U.S. equities snapped a six-day rally on a disappointing result from Walmart Inc. and as Treasuries fell amid massive debt issuance. The dollar advanced. Futures on equity indexes in Japan declined and Australia’s benchmark inched lower at the open. The S&P 500 Index slipped below its average price for the past 50 days. Walmart sank the most since 1988. The U.S. Treasury on Tuesday sold $179 billion of securities, with yields on two-year notes and three- and six-month bills climbing to levels unseen since 2008. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 0.4 percent in Singapore. Australia’s S&P/200 Index dropped 0.1 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 rose less than 0.1 percent as of 8:24 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying measure fell 0.6 percent. The MSCI Emerging Market Index declined 0.5 percent, the biggest drop in more than a week.
  • Inflation's Come and That's Good for Commodities, JPMorgan Says. Inflation’s back and raw materials stand to benefit, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., which has raised forecasts for metals. “Inflation has come and it should be good for commodities,” the bank said in a report received on Wednesday. Among signs of the shift, JPMorgan cited stronger U.S. wage numbers as well as recent core consumer price inflation.
  • Market's Red Line for Yields Isn't Where Everyone Thinks It Is. (video) Among the myriad theories for the violent correction in equities two weeks ago, one of the most prominent was a spike in Treasury yields toward the dreaded 3 percent level. It’s wrong, according to Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse AG. At least that’s the case when the 10-year rate is below what he calls the neutral level of 3.5 percent, Golub wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. The last time the 10-year yield topped that was in 2011.
Wall Street Journal:
Business Insider: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.50 +1.25 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.5 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.59 +.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.21%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (AAP)/.65
  • (BLUE)/-1.73
  • (DISH)/.55
  • (GRMN)/.76
  • (OC)/1.04
  • (UTHR)/4.56
  • (WEX)/1.46
  • (WWW)/.41
  • (AAOI)/.83
  • (CAR)/.22
  • (CAKE)/.53
  • (CTRP)/.16
  • (JACK)/1.11
  • (NE)/-.33
  • (RMAX)/.50
  • (STMP)/2.78
  • (SRCL)/1.14
  • (RGR)/.77
  • (SNPS)/1.00
  • (UCTT)/.60
  • (VMI)/1.69
  • (WEN)/.11
Economic Releases
9:45 am EST
  • The Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for February is estimated at 55.5 versus 55.5 in January.
  • The Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for February is estimated to rise to 53.7 versus 53.3 in January.
10:00 am EST
  • Existing Home Sales for January are estimated to rise to 5.6M versus 5.57M in December.
2:00 pm EST
  • Jan. 31 FOMC meeting minutes.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kashkari speaking, UK Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Services PMI report, $35B 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly US retail sales reports, Barclays Industrial Conference, RBC Healthcare Conference and the Citi Industrials Conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
0 comments

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Russia Probe Worries, Earnings Jitters, US/European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Road & Rail/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 3:34 PM
Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.27 +4.16%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.81 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.55 -.23%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.15 -.64%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +15.22%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -10.87%
  • NYSE Arms 1.13 -.97%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.76 +4.43%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 381.0 +.15%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.52 +5.19%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.50 +5.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.59 +1.61%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 124.64 +3.86%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.23 -.39%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 27.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -33.0 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.56 -.56%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.60% unch.
  • Yield Curve 66.25 -2.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 76.35 USD/Metric Tonne n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.80 -1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.60 -12.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.20 +1.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 2 meeting, 100.0% chance at June 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -59 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +177 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -49 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
0 comments

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 3:04 PM
Bloomberg:
  • Draghi Stays Silent as ECB Seeks Clarity on Latvia. (video) More than 48 hours since Latvian Governor Ilmars Rimsevics was detained by anti-graft authorities and pressed by the government to step down, the ECB is still unclear on the details of the case, the people said. The Governing Council expects to be briefed by the Executive Board at a scheduled meeting on Wednesday, they said, asking not to be identified as internal discussions are confidential. The ECB has been in contact with Rimsevics, one person said.
  • World's Biggest Container Liner Looks for Deals Outside Shipping. The world’s largest container company will start looking for takeover targets outside the shipping industry as it tries to pre-empt a new competitive landscape in which customers are morphing into rivals. Jakob Stausholm, A. P. Moller-Maersk A/S’s chief financial officer and head of transformation and strategy, says the company needs to expand its land-based activities to meet a growing need from clients. “We’re currently very big in the ocean segment, and we’d rather grow in non-ocean, so it may be a good idea to look for M&A targets there,” Stausholm said in an interview Tuesday.
  • Fear's Gone But Greed Hasn't Materialized in U.S. Stock Options. Warren Buffett once quipped that aspiring investors “should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” Tell that to the options market. While the volatility-induced jolt of fear that rattled markets in early February has subsided, options buyers are sitting tight and betting on the status quo, even on the heels of the best week for U.S. equities since 2013. Put options that would pay off in mid-March if the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) re-eclipses its lowest closing level of 2018 have tumbled by more than 80 percent from their recent peak.
  • Money Managers Think the Worst Is Yet to Come for S&P 500. About 57 percent of investors surveyed by Strategas Research Partners expect the S&P 500 Index to break the intraday low of 2,533 reached on Feb. 9, while the rest say the market has bottomed for the year after a two-week selloff sent the index to its first 10 percent correction since 2016. The poll, conducted Feb. 16, covered roughly 500 institutional investors.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Is a 3% Treasury Yield Good News or Bad? For Now, Investors Say Good. This year’s rise in yields points to a long-awaited return to economic normalcy, overcoming fears about the staying power of the postcrisis recovery.
Zero Hedge:
  • Elliott's Singer: Bitcoin Boom Confirms "The Limitless Ignorance Of Humans". "We all laugh at primitive tribes which used large stones (or pigs) as currency. Well, laugh as you will, but a stone or a healthy pig is something. Cryptocurrencies are nothing except the marketing power of inventors, financiers and others who love the idea of buying a black box (which is obviously empty) for the price of a Kia and dreaming that it will turn into a Mercedes. There have been times recently when this dream has materialized within hours." “This [cryptocurrency] is not just a bubble. It is not just a fraud. It is perhaps the outer limit, the ultimate expression, of the ability of humans to seize upon ether and hope to ride it to the stars...But is it not glorious that when the equivalent of nothing attracts priests and parishioners who run up the price, the very willingness of the mob to buy it at higher and higher prices is seen as validation of the thing, rather than an indication of the limitless ignorance of swaths of the human race?” this limitation [scarcity] is not nearly as sacrosanct as the bitcoin evangelists would have you believe."
0 comments
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)