Thursday, January 31, 2019

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -1.9% 2) Road & Rail -1.6% 3) Banks -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • KNSA, CMPR, KEM, CNXM, GHL, INVA, TSCO, HRB, MUSA, DWDP, MEOH, CNX, PYPL and ARCB
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NVAX 2) PSTG 3) AET 4) EWY 5) VXXB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GHL 2) XPO 3) VALE 4) TYME 5) IMMU
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders +2.9% 2) Tobacco +2.9% 3) Internet +2.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VCLT, FLWS, IGV, MLNX, NOW, EGOV, KIDS, IIVI, CHTR, RACE, LBRDK, ASND, FB, CBPO, ABC, ALGT, CREE, GE, PHG, AGS, GFF, ECH, DQ, MSB, SCWX, ZS, SEND, DLB, ALGN, CWT, SKY, WWD and SE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CAH 2) AVEO 3) NVAX 4) COUP 5) NOW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NOW 2) UPS 3) CHTR 4) AMD 5) GE
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.5 -4.25 basis points
  • China Sovereign CDS 55.0 -3.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.67 +.16%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.29%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.26%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.52%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (MO)/.95
  • (ABC)/1.51
  • (APTV)/1.21
  • (BAX)/.73
  • (CELG)/2.31
  • (COP[)/1.02
  • (ETN)/1.43
  • (GE)/.24
  • (IP)/1.59
  • (MA)/1.52
  • (NOC)/4.45
  • (PH)/2.42
  • (RTN)/2.87
  • (SHW)/3.55
  • (TSCO)/1.09
  • (UPS)/1.91
  • (VLO)/1.11
  • (YRCW)/.39
After the Close:
  • (AFL)/.94
  • (AMZN)/5.51
  • (CY)/.33
  • (DECK)/5.29
  • (MCK)/3.16
  • (POST)/.97
  • (SKYW)/1.07
  • (SYMC)/.39
  • (YUMC)/.08
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for January.
8:30 am EST
  • The Employment Cost Index for 4Q is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.8% gain in 3Q.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 215K versus 199K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1721K versus 1713K prior.
9:45 am EST
  • The Chicago Purchasing Manager report for January is estimated to fall to 61.5 versus 63.8 in Dec. 
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for November are estimated to rise to 567K versus 544K in October.
4:00 pm EST
  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Nov.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China PMI report, Eurozone GDP report, Japan Unemployment Rate report and the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on More Dovish FOMC Commentary, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -7.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.11 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.97 +.45%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.91 +.65%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 +28.6%
  • Total Put/Call .89 +1.14%
  • NYSE Arms .82 -11.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.74 -3.87%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 694.0 -1.34%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.52 -1.45%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 241.0 -2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.95 -.84%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 176.22 -2.43%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 155.67 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 -1.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.58 +.57%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% unch.
  • Yield Curve 17.75 +3.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 81.15 USD/Metric Tonne -1.61%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.60 +2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -82.3 -.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.3 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84+7.0 basis points
  • 1.0% chance of Fed rate hike at May 1st meeting, 10.3% chance at June 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +242 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +141 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Networking -.8% 2) Homebuilding -.7% 3) I-Banking -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TUP, SLAB, EGHT, HA, JNPR, COHR, UMBF, NATI, CDK, GNTX, TROW, AMGN, T, ILMN, CIEN and WHR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) UUP 2) AET 3) AXL 4) DELL 5) SC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TUP 2) ACIU 3) CIEN 4) COHR 5) WHR
Charts: