Friday, May 31, 2019

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -1.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -2.3% 2) Computer Hardware -2.2% 3) Oil Service -2.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ZUO, NTNX, GPS, RRGB, MPAA, HYGS, DELL, CONN, STZ, CAPL, TPIC, ZS, WUBA, MOV, IOVA, TX, SCHL, NXGN, JWN, MAT, BGS, YEXT, KSU, ENPH, SCWX, AYI, MOV, VMW, CATO and BOOT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AVYA 2) CZR 3) AET 4) EWW 5) DELL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ZUO 2) GPS 3) FCAU 4) STZ 5) KSU
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +4.0% 2) Video Gaming +.4% 3) REITs +.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • WSM, QTRX, BIG, SPNS, OKTA, SOLY, GCO, PLAN, TWLO, MDCO, AVDR, VEEV, AEM, PAYC, AU, WPM, SUI, AAXN, NGG and FOLD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WPX 2) DELL 3) HYG 4) ALLY 5) WSM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WSM 2) GCO 3) BIG 4) LYFT 5) MOH
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, May 30, 2019

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:      
  • Stock Futures Drop as Trump Plans Mexico Tariffs. U.S. equity futures fell after President Donald Trump said he will place tariffs on all goods coming from Mexico. The yen edged higher and Mexico’s peso slumped. Trump tweeted that the taxes would take effect June 10 at a rate of 5%. That may hit sentiment for Asian stocks, which were heading for modest gains after U.S. shares edged higher on Thursday. Treasury futures rose. Earlier, the bond rally that’s taken yields to a 20-month low on 10-year Treasuries extended amid concern the trade spat with China could derail global growth. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.1% in Singapore earlier. Hang Seng futures rose 0.3%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.3%. Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.5%.  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.75 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 57.0 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.66 -.18%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.77%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.82%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (BIG)/.70
  • (CONN)/.53
  • (GCO)/.03
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in March.
  • Personal Spending for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.9% gain in March.
  • The PCE Core MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in March.
9:45 am EST
  • MNI Chicago PMI for May is estimated to rise to 54.0 versus 52.6 in April.
10:00 am EST
  • Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for May is estimated to fall to 101.5 versus a prior estimate of 102.4.
Upcoming Splits
  • (FFIN) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The tariffs on $60B of US exports to China will rise to 5-25% from 5-10% prior, China Manufacturing PMI report, Eurozone CPI report, FDA hearing on products containing cannabis, ASCO 2019 and the (CI) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on China Trade War Fears, Oil Plunge, Technical Selling, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.1 +1.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.73 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.35 -1.53%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.43 +2.11%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 +37.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.08 -23.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.22 +24.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.29 +.28%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 589.0 +1.46%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.61 -2.43%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 283.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.86 -.06%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 208.73 -.72%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.17 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 5.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.50-.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.53 -.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.36% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 15.25 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.05 USD/Metric Tonne -.87%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.9 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.90 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.30 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 +2.0 basis points
  • 29.4% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 58.7% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -53 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -157 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long