Monday, July 22, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.72 -5.05%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.63 +.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.92 -.14%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.8 -4.48%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +8.25%
  • Total Put/Call .96 -4.0%
  • NYSE Arms .96 -23.81%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.76 -1.97%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 642.0 +.05%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.50 -4.09%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 200.0 +7.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.07 -.59%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.48 -.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.89 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.0 -7.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.5 +2.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.75 -.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.07% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 23.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.53 USD/Metric Tonne -.39%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -42.10 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.20 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.3 +4.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -16 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Tobacco -1.8% 2) Papers -1.3% 3) Retail -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CADE, PAYS, MBUU, HZO, IIPR, MCFT, TURN, LII, BPT, BC, HDB, FRGI, AMC and GEO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GEO 2) AET 3) HOG 4) SIG 5) MAT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CADE 2) HZO 3) BC 4) MBUU 5) MNK
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +2.2% 2) Semis +1.9% 3) Computer Hardware +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RPM, ARCT, GLPG, DVA, SBLK, MODN, DDS, JYNT, SLP, DIOD, PHG, USLV, AVRO, GNTX, HAL, COHU, SKX, MTN, LASR, SNY, SAP, AMAT, CQP, TDOC, UCTT and NEWM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PHM 2) KKR 3) DVA 4) KMB 5)WHR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VYST 2) HAL 3) AMAT 4) DVA 5) LK
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Sunday, July 21, 2019

Monday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.76 -.08%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (HAL)/.30
  • (PETS)/.42
  • (CALM)/-.26
After the Close:
  • (BRO)/.28
  • (CE)/2.35
  • (CR)/1.56
  • (LOGI)/.25
  • (STLD)/.88
  • (AMTD)/.97
  • (WHR)/3.70
  • (ZION)/1.10
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June is estimated to rise to .1 versus -.05 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Convenience Store Sales report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on profit-taking, less dovish FOMC commentary, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, earnings jitters, Iran tensions and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.