Tuesday, August 06, 2019

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +2.5% 2) Insurance +1.9% 3) Defense +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • EVER, SHAK, DCO, PODD, ALLK, USMV, IGV, PDP, PUK, TTWO, USFD, TDG, BMCH, CIB, ITRI, LCII, GSB, FBM, SERV, LGIH, BWXT, WEN, JCOM, DIOD, VCEL, USFD, ANSS, MTZ and FBM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SIG 2) KNX 3) RF 4) MNK 5) SHAK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TWTR 2) GTT 3) EFX 4) IEP 5) NGHC
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Monday, August 05, 2019

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 +4.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 56.25 +1.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.95 -.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -1.59%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.77%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (AGN)/4.34
  • (BDX)/3.06
  • (DF)/-.17
  • (DISCA)/.99
  • (DUK)/.98
  • (EMR)/.94
  • (ENR)/.46
  • (EXPD)/.81
  • (JLL)/2.33
  • (MOS)/.29
  • (PBI)/.17
  • (REGN)/5.42
  • (SAGE)/-3.35
  • (ZTS)/.82
After the Close:
  • (ANDE)/.62
  • (HTZ)/.50
  • (MTCH)/.43
  • (MCHP)/1.38
  • (PZZA)/.30
  • (DIS)/1.74
  • (WYNN)/1.39
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • JOLTS Job Openings for June is estimated to rise to 7326 versus 7323 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Factory Orders report, $38B 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, UBS Financial Services Conference, Oppenheimer Tech/Internet/Communications Conference, Jefferies Industrials Conference, Canaccord Growth Conference and the (ORLY) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open sharply lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Monday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 +3.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 50.0 +4.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.27 -.28%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.93%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.72%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.94%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (CARS)/.43
  • (DO)/-.88
  • (JEC)/1.24
  • (L)/.75
  • (SOHU)/-1.15
After the Close:
  • (CAR)/.73
  • (CZR)/-.05
  • (KLAC)/1.75
  • (MAR)/1.56
  • (SHAK)/.23
  • (TTWO)/.04
  • (THC)/.44
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to rise to 55.5 versus 55.1 in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Services/Manufacturing PMI reports and the Commerce Dept. Hearing for $21B in EU tariffs could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, technical selling and China trade deal concerns offset earnings optimism, short-covering and bargain-hunting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 +4.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.75 +5.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.67 -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.41%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (AXL)/.57
  • (CVX)/1.82
  • (XOM)/.73
  • (HMC)/117.85
  • (ITT)/.89
  • (LYB)/2.84
  • (NWL)/.36
  • (STX)/.84
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for July is estimated to fall to 165K versus 224K in June. 
  • The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to fall to 3.6% versus 3.7% in June.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
  • The Trade Balance for June is estimated at -$54.6B versus -$55.5B in May.
10:00 am EST
  • Factory Orders for June are estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.7% decline in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PPI report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.