Friday, January 17, 2020

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value unch.
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware -1.1% 2) Energy -.9% 3) Gold & Silver -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • OZK, NTAP, CDW, EXPD, JBHT, PSNL and AIMT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DISCA 2) IGT 3) UAA 4) NLOK 5) CSX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MGPI 2) PBCT 3) CTVA 4) EXPD 5)UNFI
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +1.3% 2) Restaurants +1.1% 3) Insurance +.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PLAY, FTSV, EVER, ALEC, NNBR, CCXI, BHVN, BL, SPCE, KRTX, PRGS, WING, STT, FOCS, PRNB, PRVB, QCOM, CCC, SNAP, YETI, TRHC, GH, MIDD, FHN, IBKC, CVM, WIFI, CFG, KSU, YUM, EPZM and ARES
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DISCA 2) MAR 3) STT 4) KSU 5) ON
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) QCOM 2) IDN 3) STT 4) WING 5) SNAP
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, January 16, 2020

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 51.50 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 29.75  -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.38 -.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.26%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (FAST)/.31
  • (JBHT)/1.53
  • (KSU)/1.85
  • (RF)/.39
  • (SLB)/.37
  • (STT)/1.69
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for Dec. is estimated to rise to 1380K versus 1365K in Nov.
  • Building Permits for Dec. is estimated to fall to 1469K versus 1482K in Nov.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% decline versus a +1.1% gain in Nov.
  • Capacity Utilization for Dec. is estimated to fall to 77.0% versus 77.3% in Nov.
  • Manufacturing Production for Dec. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +1.1% gain in Nov.
10:00 am EST
  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Jan. is estimated at 99.3 versus 99.3 in Dec. 
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Nov. is estimated to fall to 7250 versus 7267 in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Quarles speaking and the Eurozone CPI report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weakend into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.3 -.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.27 +.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.18 -2.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.7 +1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 -1
  • Total Put/Call .64 -14.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 -14.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.1 -1.27%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 548.0 +1.74%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.09 +1.15%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.5 +5.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.13 -1.27%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 177.68 -1.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.95 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 29.5 +2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -1.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.38 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .23 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.18 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.6 +10.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.10 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.0 +.3 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 unch.
  • .7% chance of Fed rate cut at March 18th meeting, 8.4% chance of cut at April 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +126 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -.4% 2) Drugs unch. 3) Steel unch.
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SDC, WING, BCOR, TWST, DTIL, BK, AAOI and AA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BK 2) UNIT 3) AA 4) IRBT 5) SPCE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TSLA 2) DDD 3) BYND 4) UBER 5) PPC
Charts: