Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

• Global Economy Week by Bloomberg. 

• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as peak coronavirus hopes, short-covering and technical buying offset European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, global recession worries and oil weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving bearish signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump Warns ‘Very Deadly’ Weeks Ahead, Similar to World Wars.  

• Trump Warns of ‘Horrendous’ Phase, Many Fatalities: Virus Update.

• Trump ‘Thinking About’ Eco Panel as He Looks to U.S. Reopening.

• President Trump Looks Forward to Having Sports Stadiums Full by August.

• Gilead to Donate Experimental Coronavirus Drug for 140,000 Cases.

• Spain’s Covid-19 Cases Pass Italy as Lockdown Set for Extension.

• When, and How, Does the Coronavirus Pandemic End?     

• Trump Says He’d Use Tariffs If Needed to Protect Energy Jobs.

• OPEC+ Meeting Delayed on New Saudi, Russia Rift.  

• PointState Hedge Fund Has $2 Billion Estimated Withdrawals.  

• Coronavirus Is Spreading and Cruise Ships Are Still Sailing.

• Risk to Jobs Now ‘Unprecedented Since the Great Depression’.

• Landlords in Peril as Chains Like H&M Refuse to Pay Rent. 

• World Suffers Under the Grip of a Deadly Pandemic: Weekend Reads. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Supply-Chain Finance Is New Risk in Crisis.

• The Month Coronavirus Felled American Business.

• The Shutdown Crash Arrives.

• New Orleans Area Has Worst Coronavirus Death Rate in U.S.

• Why We Don’t Know How Many Americans Are Infected With Coronavirus.

• Mexico Halts Brewery Operations.

• A Coronavirus Bull Market for Groceries.

• As Hospitalizations Surge, Ventilator Manufacturing Ramps Up but Not Soon Enough.

• Reporting for Duty: Robots That Go Where Humans Fear to Tread.

CNBC:

• Trump says he will immediately ask for more small business money if relief fund runs out.

• Oil set to ‘crater’ Monday as OPEC meeting delayed, tensions flare between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

• Coronavirus shutdowns work ‘to our advantage,’ Constellation Brands CEO says.

• Bank of America says 85,000 small businesses have asked for $22.2 billion in loans since 9 a.m.

• Trump to ban export of coronavirus protection gear, says he’s ‘not happy with 3M’.

• Another figure in the jobs report paints an even gloomier picture of the coronavirus damage.

• WHO says ‘more and more’ young people are dying from the coronavirus.

• Trump says ‘we’ll work this out’ and ‘get our energy business back’ at meeting with oil CEOs.

• Here are the industries suffering the biggest job losses in an initial look at coronavirus impact.

• Coronavirus live updates: US cases continue to rise faster than other countries.

• Telehealth visits are booming amid the coronavirus pandemic.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (FB), (EBF), (NVTA), (BPMC), (BD), (JNJ), (MSFT), (GIS), (GILD), (BLUE), (FATE), (CRSP) and (GENC).

MarketWatch.com:

• After another volatile week for markets, these are the stocks that rose and fell the most when the smoke cleared.

• OPEC+ virtual meeting in doubt for Monday after Saudi Arabia sharply criticizes Russia

• Credit Suisse warns investors that triple-leveraged oil fund could result in 'complete loss of their investment'.

Fox News:

• China wins key seat to UN Human Rights council despite troubled record, disastrous coronavirus response.

• Trump warns 'there will be death' as US virus cases top 300,000; deploys medical military personnel.

Zero Hedge:          

• This Is Where The World Is On The "Corona Curve" At This Moment.

• 350 More COVID-19 Deaths Reported In NYC As US Braces For 'Seven Days Of Hell': Live Updates.

• Half A Million Chinese People Entered America At The Height Of The COVID-19 Outbreak.

• Police App Encourages People To Report Neighbors Who Violate Stay-At-Home Orders.

• UN Blasted As "Absurd & Immoral" For Appointing China To Key UN Human Rights Panel.

• After Record Rally, Oil Faces Collapse As New Feud Erupts Between Saudis And Russia; Monday OPEC+ Meeting Cancelled.

• "I Found The Source Of COVID-19...".

• Duterte Orders Philippine Police To Shoot Dead Virus-Lockdown Violators.

• Facial Recognition Companies Profit From COVID-19 By Adding Thermal Imaging.

• McConnell Acknowledges Fourth Coronavirus Bill In The Works.

• Delta Passenger Volume Down 94% As It Burns $60MM Per Day; Buffett Dumps Delta, Southwest Shares.

• Finns Warned World's Best-Funded Welfare State Collapsing Under Virus-Triggered Mass Unemployment.

• Drone Delivers Food To Customers In COVID-19 Isolation.

• China Floods Europe With Defective COVID-19-Fighting Medical Equipment.

• US Suffers Biggest Jump In New Cases, Deaths As Governors Battle For Ventilators: Live Updates.

• Here's Every Vaccine And Treatment In Development For COVID-19, So Far.

• New York City "Doesn't Have Any Dogs Left To Foster" In Latest COVID-19-Related Shortage.

• Wuhan Residents Believe COVID-19 Is 100 Times Worse Than Chinese Government Says, Report.

• Supermarket Dunks Shopping Carts Into Giant Vats Of Disinfectants To Protect Customers From Virus.

• Molecular Biologist Says COVID-19 Could Have Leaked From Wuhan Biolab.

• Small Texas City Fines Residents $1,000 For Not Wearing Masks Amid Outbreak.

• Congress Proposes 50% Tax On Guns & Ammo In The US.

• Biotech CEO Featured In 'Pandemic' Documentary May Have COVID-19 Cure.

• Oil Jumps, Stocks Dump As 'Helicopter Money' Sends USA Risk Soaring.

Business Insider:  

• The US Postal Service is on track to run out of money by June, and it could be a disaster for states trying to expand voting by mail.

• THE AI IN INSURANCE REPORT: How forward-thinking insurers are using AI to slash costs and boost customer satisfaction as disruption looms.

• AI IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS: Why carriers could lose out if they don't adopt AI fast — and where they can make the biggest gains.

• Walmart will start counting shoppers at the door and limiting how many can enter.

• 30 ways people's interests are changing during the coronavirus outbreak, according to Yelp.

• Target employees reveal 8 insider tips for shopping at the superstore during the coronavirus pandemic.

• Constant fear, missed milestones, and showers before hugs: The coronavirus is unleashing an agonizing 'new normal' on medical workers and their families.

• This website lets you watch Netflix with friends online and video chat at the same time, and it's great for hosting a virtual movie night.  

• 'The scary things that this virus can do': Doctors across NYC share the harrowing reality of caring for oxygen-starved coronavirus patients as equipment runs short.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)    

BNO News:  

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.    

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,488.65 -2.08%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 21,052.53 -2.7%

• NASDAQ 7,373.08 -1.72%

• Russell 2000 1,052.05 -7.06%

• S&P 500 High Beta 27.25 -6.08%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 84.56 -11.0%

• Wilshire 5000 24,814.80 -3.8%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,444.63 -2.47%

• Russell 1000 Value 936.42 -3.7%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 568.63 +2.31%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,091.66 -4.53%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,817.0 -3.72%

• Transports 7,314.80 -5.97%

• Utilities 707.12 -7.56%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 43.42 -11.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 33.34 -1.47%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,095.03 -.6%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 874.71 -1.39%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 380,115 -1.02%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -416 -202

• Commercial Bullish % Net Position -36.7 -2.9%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 436,013 -.96%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,141,284 -.61%

• Total Put/Call 1.04 -6.6%

• OEX Put/Call 1.0 +6.82%

• ISE Sentiment 44.0 -41

• NYSE Arms .52 -59.6%

• Volatility(VIX) 48.21 -24.6%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 75.80 +5.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.6 -8.53%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.77 +.79%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,400.44 -1.79%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.397 Trillion +4.2%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows n/a

• AAII % Bulls 34.2 +4.1%

• AAII % Bears 49.7 -4.5%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 127.96 +1.78%

• Crude Oil 28.8 +23.7%

• Reformulated Gasoline 70.3 +7.7%

• Natural Gas 1.64 -2.65%

• Heating Oil 110.37 -1.95%

• Gold 1,648.90 +.86%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 142.35 -.28%

• Copper 219.05 +1.0%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 230.0 USD/Metric Tonne -9.8%

• China Iron Ore Spot 79.56 USD/Metric Tonne -5.73%

• Lumber 264.0 -15.0%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 786.33 -3.3%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.25% -143.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -26.9% -1,140.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 40.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -21.25 +4.85%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 9885.01 +67.5%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 162.29 -3.28%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -41.3 -40.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.4 -14.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.3 +22.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate cut on 4/29

• US Dollar Index 98.34 +2.47%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,558.01 -.76%

• Bitcoin/USD 6,730.70 +.17%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.63 -2.49%

• Yield Curve 38.0 -15.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield .58% -13.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $5.772 Trillion +10.7%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.67 +9.47%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 266.17 -15.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 199.0 +19.0 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.58 +22.7%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 353.40 +31.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 84.15 +12.1%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.49 +15.8%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 188.18 -11.4%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 156.12 -8.13%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.04% +11.0 basis points

• TED Spread 131.0 -11.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 -1.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 66.5 +43.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 129.6 +20.0%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,423.0 +5.83%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 110.84 +16.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 388.53 +14.3%
  

• Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate CMBS Avg. OAS 1.87 -23.4%
  

• M1 Money Supply $4.337 Trillion +4.51%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,105.60 -.5%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 2,612,000 +1,613,750

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.1% +90.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.3% -17.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 874,600 +15.3%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 56.3 -3.4 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +7.5% -40.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $1.96/gallon -.09/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 624.0 +12.2%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 896.09 -.18%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 145.0 +65.7%

• Rail Freight Carloads 229,923 -2.54%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -2.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -9.3%

Leading Sectors

• Energy +6.0%

• Gold & Silver +5.4%

• Pharma +4.9%

• Papers +1.9%

• Foods +1.8%

Lagging Sectors

• Retail -10.7% 

• Banks -11.9%

• Gaming -16.2%

• Homebuilding -19.7%

• Airlines -23.9%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (3)

• NVAX, LVGO and MRNA

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (41)

• AJG, DOOR, KSS, OKE, KMX, MBUU, WMGI, HHC, UAL, CNP, OXY, HASI, ACHC, PD, RCL, COF, BRKS, LAMR, MAR, MGM, GDDY, RL, DIN, WYNN, THC, APOG, H, CAR, LYV, BXMT, AL, PRAA, MNRO, PII, ECPG, CASH, FWONK, KTB, PFSI, MIC and WD

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change