Saturday, December 31, 2016

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • China’s Xi Vows to Defend Maritime Interests, Sovereignty in ’17. Chinese President Xi Jinping said the country will deepen reforms as he vowed to safeguard its sovereignty and maritime interests in 2017, a year that will present fresh international and domestic challenges for the leaders in Beijing. In a New Year’s speech published Saturday by Xinhua, Xi said the outcome of reforms should benefit more people and he vowed to address difficulties in areas such as employment, education, health care and housing. He also said the country adheres to peaceful development and resolutely safeguards its sovereignty and maritime interests. 
  • Hollande Says France Must Defend Values in Cold War Climate. French President Francois Hollande tells the French they have values to defend in the context of a new Cold War -- a reference to both geopolitics and the country’s looming presidential election. “There are moments in history when everything can be toppled. We are living through one of those periods,” Hollande said in a televised speech from Paris. “Democracy, freedom, Europe and even peace -- all of these things have become vulnerable, reversible. We saw it with Brexit and with the U.S. election in November.”
  • Solar Panels Now So Cheap Manufacturers Probably Selling at Loss. Solar manufacturers led by China’s Trina Solar Ltd. are probably selling at a loss after prices fell to a record low this week. The global spot market price for solar panels fell 2.4 percent to an average of 36 cents a watt on Dec. 28, according to PVinsights.
  • Money, Markets and Marvels: Understanding the Year Ahead.
Wall Street Journal: 
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (RTN), (PNC), (USFD) and (GD).
  • Had bearish commentary on (WAAS).
Zero Hedge:
Reuters:
  • At least 35 killed in Istanbul nightclub attack: Istanbul governor. At least 35 people were killed and 40 wounded when an attacker opened fire on New Year's revelers at a nightclub in Istanbul on Sunday, Istanbul Governor Vasip Sahin told reporters. The attacker shot a police officer and a civilian as he entered the club in the Ortakoy district of Istanbul before opening fire inside the building, Sahin said, in what he described as a terrorist attack.

Friday, December 30, 2016

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,234.78 -1.15%
  • DJIA 19,753.12 -.93%
  • NASDAQ 5,382.82 -1.31%
  • Russell 2000 1,355.33 -.48%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 36.49 -1.80%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 120.31 -.51%
  • Wilshire 5000 23,262.70 -1.03%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,051.55 -1.11%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,100.14 -1.05%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 530.90 -.67%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.2853 -.15%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,214.39 -1.15%
  • Transports 9,029.55 -1.43%
  • Utilities 660.60 +.07%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 91.89 -1.71%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 35.15 +2.37%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,154.54 -.40%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 989.94 -.12%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 273,524 +.1%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 40 -52
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 44.83 +258.64%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 436,661 +3.29%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,029,807 -3.56%
  • Total Put/Call .98 +11.63%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.1 +41.0%
  • ISE Sentiment 64.0 -33.98%
  • NYSE Arms 1.56 +13.18%
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.24 +23.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.95 +4.73%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.23 +2.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.34 +.09%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,262.20 -.66%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.728 Trillion +.59%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.106 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 45.6 +2.1%
  • AAII % Bears 25.7 -11.7%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 192.41 +1.12%
  • Crude Oil 53.59 +1.82%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 167.05 +4.38%
  • Natural Gas 3.71 +4.70%
  • Heating Oil 170.42 +2.86%
  • Gold 1,152.50 +2.0%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 166.65 -1.07%
  • Copper 250.40 -.14%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 248.33 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 78.87 USD/Ton +.93%
  • Lumber 316.70 +2.56%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,131.76 +1.31%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.5% unch.
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +11.8% +50.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2956 +8.43%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 131.31 +.21%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.30 +1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.1 -3.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.1 +10.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 87.6% chance of no change 12.4% chance of 25 basis point hike on 2/1
  • US Dollar Index 102.29 -.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,506.09 +.30%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.51 +.34%
  • Yield Curve 125.0 -9.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.45% -9.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.413 Trillion -.4%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.75 -1.87%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 358.0 -.05%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 20.87 +2.38%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 36.11 -2.99%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 79.62 -1.74%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 75.50 +9.8%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 703.52 -7.42%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 177.50 +3.03%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.21 +.06%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97% -3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 45.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 -4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -56.0 +6.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 67.76 +1.44%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 458.0 +1.0%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 93.56 +1.55%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 241.99 -1.35%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 134.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.298 Trillion -1.28%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 986.50 +2.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 263,000 -750
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.32% +2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 407.30 +2.47%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 46.0 -.7 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.3% +20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.32/gallon +.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 961.0 +1.59%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 811.14 +3.80%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 45.0 -14.3%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 252,716 -6.14%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +9.8%
  • Tobacco +1.8%
  • REITs +1.3%
  • Drugs +.7%
  • Agriculture +.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Alt Energy -1.6% 
  • Restaurants -1.7%
  • Gaming -2.0%
  • Disk Drives -2.3%
  • Coal -3.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (3)
  • KATE, PTLA and WMK
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (1)
  • BAS
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Pension Rebalancing, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.29 +6.88%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.41 +.55%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.34 -.18%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.03 -1.14%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 56.0 -33.33%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +7.53%
  • NYSE Arms 1.55 +30.72%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.48 -.39%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 458.0 +.98%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.57 -1.53%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.87 +1.78%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 36.11 -4.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 241.99 +.39%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.21 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 +1.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 50.0 -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -56.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.79 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .50% +5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 126.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $78.87/Metric Tonne -1.94%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.30 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.10 -1.0 basis point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.10 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97% +1.0 basis point
  • 31.3% chance of Fed rate hike at March 15 meeting, 42.0% chance at May 3 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long