Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The cost to protect corporate debt from default fell the most in a week after Lehman Brothers(LEH) sold $4 billion in shares and UBS AG made plans to raise the equivalent of $15 billion to shore up capital depleted by the US housing slump. Credit-default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index of 125 companies dropped 10.5 basis points to 133 basis points.
- The US dollar rose the most against the euro in almost two weeks as UBS AG and Lehman Brothers(LEH) said they’re raising $19 billion, bolstering investor confidence in the world’s largest financial institutions.
- Lehman Brothers(LEH) rose the most in a week in NY after raising $4 billion from a stock sale aimed at quelling speculation it’s short of capital.
- Commodities fell for a third day, led by oil, copper and soybeans.

- Stock hedge funds sat on a record amount of cash as the industry posted its biggest quarterly decline in almost six years. Equity managers, who oversee about one-third of the $1.9 trillion in hedge funds, held an estimated $64.8 billion in cash in February, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch analyst Mary Ann Bartels. That was down from $90 billion in January. The last time equity funds held cash outside of their trading accounts was in 2004, according to Merrill Lynch. “The data indicates to us the equity hedge funds have de-leveraged and have record cash balances,” she wrote

Wall Street Journal:
- China has a serious inflation problem.
- Microsoft(MSFT) Unlikely to Raise Yahoo(YHOO) Offer.
- MBIA’s(MBI) Brown Sees No Immediate Need to Raise Capital.
- Wall Street Argues Over Effect of ‘Uptick’ Rule.

NY Times:
- Hamas’s Virulent Attacks Against Jews Block Peace.
- AMR(AMR), UAL(UAUA) Boost Revenue Selling Frequent Flier Miles.

Xinhua:
- South China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region became the 10th Chinese locality to have replaced gasoline and diesel oil with bio-ethanol fuel on Tuesday out of environmental and energy efficiency concerns.

Haaretz.com:
- In a Hamas TV production for Palestinian children, a puppet stabs US President Bush to death in revenge for American and Israeli actions.

UBS Credit Default Swap Graph


(click on image to enlarge)

BOTTOM LINE: Despite this news, the UBS AG(US) credit default swap is plunging 29.6 basis points today to 112.50. As well, the stock is soaring 13.8% on heavy volume. This type of action is extremely positive and indicates the worst may well be over for the heavily-shorted financial sector.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Growth +1.79%

Sector Underperformers:

Gold (-2.31%), Coal (+.12%) and Tobacco (+.39%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

TRP, CALM, MDAS and AIR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) SYMC 2) ITMN 3) POZN 4) LVLT 5) WAG

ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending Beat Estimates

- ISM Manufacturing for March rose to 48.6 versus estimates of 47.5 and a reading of 48.3 in February.

- ISM Prices Paid for March rose to 83.5 versus estimates of 75.0 and a reading of 75.5 in February.

- Construction Spending for March fell -.3% versus estimates of a -1.0% decline and an upwardly revised -1.0% decline in February.

BOTTOM LINE: Manufacturing in the US beat analysts’ estimates last month, easing concern over the possibility of a deepening economic slump, Bloomberg reported. The New Orders component of the index fell to 46.5, while the Exports component rose to 56.5 versus 56.0 in February. The Inventory component fell to 44.9 versus 45.4 the prior month. The Orders Backlog component rose to 47.5 versus 45.0 in February. The Employment component rose to 49.2 versus 46.0 the prior month. While US growth likely turned mildly negative during 1Q, I continue to believe the US will avoid recession as growth accelerates back into positive territory this quarter on inventory rebuilding, fiscal/monetary stimuli, a likely end to the American Axle strike, booming exports and lower energy prices.

Spending on US building projects fell in February less than analysts anticipated, Bloomberg reported. Private Residential construction spending fell .9% versus a 1.9% drop the prior month. Non-Residential construction rose .1% versus a .8% decline the prior month. Building of factories jumped 2.7%. Construction spending will continue to remain muted over the intermediate-term as home builders work down inventories and commercial building slows. The 10-year yield is jumping 13 basis points and the US Dollar Index is surging 1.01% on today’s data. Moreover, the odds the Fed lowers the benchmark fed funds rate by 50 basis points at the upcoming April 30th meeting are falling to 30.0% from 52.0% yesterday. The odds of a 25 basis point cut are rising to 70.0% from 48.0% yesterday.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Value (+2.69%)

Sector Outperformers:

Banks (+5.81%), I-Banks (+5.3%) and Airlines (+4.2%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

UBS, KB, C, RF, CS, TKC, IPCS, AXA, ITMN, ORLY, ANST, BWLD, ANSS, SKIL, AMLN, CORE, GLNG, HANS, PETS, ATHR, DMND, SUNH, SPIR, AAWW, BLUD, UBB, FST and CHD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) ITMN 2) ALTR 3) MU 4) AMLN 5) WLT

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