Friday, September 02, 2011

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value (-3.51%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Banks -4.62% 2) Steel -4.60% 3) Homebuilders -4.31%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • DB, LQDT, CIEN, RAIL, WPPGY, KAMN, CHFC, NFLX, SCVL, CPLA, CVV, FSLR, ECOL, PERY, ICFI, GGAL, FSTER, CTCM, PSMT, PRGO, CSGS, RPM, HRB and ESL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SVM 2) GNK 3) ALU 4) XLY 5) MON
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) XLF 2) KBE 3) BHI 4) PBR 5) AIG
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth (-1.70%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.29% 2) Telecom -.51% 3) Airlines -.50%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NG, EXK, FNSR, REGN, PAAS and GOLD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SYMC 2) SPLS 3) HCA 4) FNSR 5) ABC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LQDT 2) BCSI 3) EDMC 4) ODFL 5) SCCO
Charts:

Thursday, September 01, 2011

Friday Watch


Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -1.50% to -.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.0 +5.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 144.0 +5.75 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures -1.33%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.60%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.55%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (CPB)/.38
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for August is estimated at 68K versus 117K in July.
  • The Unemployment Rate for August is estimated at 9.1% versus 9.1% in July.
  • Average Hourly Earnings for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Eurozone Debt Angst, Financial Sector Pessimism, Global Growth Worries, Emerging Markets Inflation Fears


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 31.65 +.09%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 +3.5%
  • Total Put/Call .99 -18.85%
  • NYSE Arms 1.15 +61.11%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 115.31 +.48%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 219.69 +2.71%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 304.17 unch.
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 267.65 +1.42%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 31.0 +2 bps
  • TED Spread 32.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 196.0 -3 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $180.40/Metric Tonne +.28%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -48.1 +5.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04% +1 bp
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +61 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -41 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my Retail, Tech and Biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bearish, as the S&P 500 reverses morning gains again on rising Eurozone debt angst, more financial sector pessimism, more shorting, profit-taking, emerging markets inflation fears, global growth worries and technical selling. On the positive side, Homebuilding shares are rising on the day. Lumber is gaining +1.16% and the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is falling -1.68%. On the negative side, Education, Insurance, Hospital, Biotech, I-Bank, Bank, Disk Drive, Paper, Oil Tanker, Alt Energy and Defense shares are under meaningful pressure, falling more than -1.75%. Small-caps and cyclicals are substantially underperforming. (XLF) has traded poorly throughout the day. The 10-year yield is falling too much given today's data, falling -9 bps to 2.14%. Oil is rising +.14%, Gold is rising +.15% and Copper is down -1.34%. Rice is making another new multi-year high today and has risen +34.1% in about 8 weeks. The average US price for a gallon of gas is +.01/gallon today to $3.63/gallon. It is up .49/gallon in about 7 months. The Greece sovereign cds is gaining +1.44% to 2,293.70 bps, the France sovereign cds is rising +5.83% to 163.17 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is gaining +4.95% to 375.25 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is jumping +6.25% to 383.07 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is gaining +3.75% to 952.28 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is soaring +8.36% to 249.50 bps and the US sovereign cds is up +2.43% to 51.37 bps. The Eurozone Financial Sector CDS Index is still near it recent all-time high. The Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index has plunged -108.9 points in about 3 weeks to -102.80. The UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is still near its recent record high, which is also a large negative. The 3-Month Euro Basis Swap is gapping -10.15 bps down today and is back near its recent low at -89.78 bps. The Shanghai Composite did not participate in the Asian equity rally for the 4th consecutive day overnight and is down -8.97% ytd. Germany's DAX also continues to trade poorly as it fell another -.94% today and is now down -17.5% ytd. As well, the euro currency remains heavy despite equity trader optimism over developments in the region. Brazil's interest rate cut last night will very likely prove a large mistake as their inflation expectations are getting to very problematic levels. The AAII % Bulls jumped to 38.62 this week, while the % Bears fell to 32.3%, which is another negative given the backdrop. Gauges of eurozone debt angst are bubbling higher again, which is a large concern. The set-up for traders into tomorrow's likely weaker-than-expected jobs report is not ideal. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising Eurozone debt angst, rising financial sector pessimism, global growth worries, emerging markets inflation fears, more shorting, profit-taking and technical selling.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value (-2.10%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -3.21% 2) Banks -2.61% 3) Disk Drives -2.60%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • BP, STMP, LFUS, AGNC, PSMT, HTLD, ICFI, MNRO, QDEL, MORN, PLCM, TRNX, NVLS, ORIT, SSRX, JOYG, UTEK, ARUN, CYOU, ITRI, KAMN, GEF, RGR, VIV, CLR, BAH, RPM and SAI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ALU 2) BK 3) LXK 4) NBR 5) TXN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ITRI 2) FFIV 3) B 4) MAA 5) GE
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth (-.19%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders +1.49% 2) Networking +.69% 3) Tobacco +.49%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PIR, CELL, TIN, BCS, LQDT, CIEN, BCSI, OXM, MOV and UGP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CBG 2) ALU 3) BK 4) SPRD 5) PCS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RAD 2) APL 3) DYN 4) SLV 5) SWKS
Charts: