Monday, April 04, 2016

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Monday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 144.0 -.25 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.0 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.52 -.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
9:45 am EST
  • The ISM New York for March is estimated to rise to 54.1 versus 53.6 in February.
10:00 am EST
  • Labor Market Conditions Index for March.
  • Factory Orders for February are estimated to fall -1.8% versus a +1.6% gain in January.
  • Factory Orders Ex Transports for February are estimated to fall -.5% versus a -.2% decline in January.   
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Rosengren speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Eurozone PPI report and the Reserve Bank of Australia Decision could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, Fed rate-hike fears, global growth concerns, commodity weakness, yen strength and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, April 02, 2016

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 2,072.78 +1.81%*
 photo weq_zps8fktzhta.png

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,072.78 +1.81%
  • DJIA 17,792.75 +1.58%
  • NASDAQ 4,914.54 +2.96%
  • Russell 2000 1,117.68 +3.53%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 28.63 +.7%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 98.39 +3.13
  • Wilshire 5000 21,303.95 +2.02%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,011.33 +2.43%
  • Russell 1000 Value 977.52 +1.32%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 550.37 +2.63%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 130.65 +1.46%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,065.44 +2.63%
  • Transports 7,887.77 -.48%
  • Utilities 671.04 +1.64%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 76.94 -2.47%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 33.91 +1.69%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,120.47 +.66%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,013.23 -.10%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 239.057 +1.31%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 55 +439
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 305,511 -.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,734,511 +1.69%
  • Total Put/Call .95 -8.65%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.29 -84.64%
  • ISE Sentiment 100.0 +25.0%
  • NYSE Arms .81 -3.57%
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.1 -11.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.97 -5.17%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.88 -2.51%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.63 -1.11%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,134.78 +.35%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.765 Trillion +.5%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.035 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 27.2 -19.5%
  • AAII % Bears 25.8 +8.7%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 168.03 -2.41%
  • Crude Oil 36.79 -7.07%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 140.16 -6.40%
  • Natural Gas 1.96 +8.07%
  • Heating Oil 113.17 -5.68%
  • Gold 1,223.50 +.56%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 142.76 +.18%
  • Copper 216.30 -3.35%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 170.67 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 54.80 USD/Ton -2.79%
  • Lumber 300.70 +.97%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,062.45 -1.68%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +.7% +140.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1049 +7.74%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.01 -.01%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.40 +6.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.0 +10.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 +15.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 4/27
  • US Dollar Index 94.62 -1.58%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,508.09 +1.57%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.89 +.71%
  • Yield Curve 105.0 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.77% -13.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.443 Trillion -.25%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.99 +1.50%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 344.0 -.74%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 25.98 -4.77%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 59.06 +1.30%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 148.38 -1.85%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 75.78 -.20%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 999.79 +3.79% 
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 289.69 -2.16%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 126.82 +.31%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64% +6.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 40.50 +7.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.0 -2.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 78.22 -7.04%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,283.0 -14.55%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 90.77 -3.87%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 289.16 -2.80%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 165.0 -5.0 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $3.175 Trillion +1.37%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,100.70 +1.0%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 263,250 +3,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.71% unch.
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 460.50 -1.01%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 42.8 -.8 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.90% +20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.06/gallon +.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 450.0 +12.21%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 646.06 -1.99%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 57.50 +64.3%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 237,923 -4.09%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +4.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +1.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Hospitals +5.3%
  • Tobacco +4.4%
  • Telecom +3.9%
  • Computer Services +3.9%
  • Restaurants +3.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Banks -.2% 
  • Energy -1.5%
  • Road & Rail -1.8%
  • Oil Service -2.8%
  • Oil Tankers -3.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)
  • ALDR, ACAD, CSII, SCLN, SAIC, SFBC, CNL, SONC, PGEM, BANC, MDVN, SYNT, WBMD, ABMD, GLPI and WMS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)
  • NPBC, PJT, ROVI, SPKE, PBYI and CONN
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Friday, April 01, 2016

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: