Monday, October 31, 2016

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Tankers -5.5% 2) Biotech -1.4% 3) Oil Service -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CTL, STON, BSFT, ZBH, LL, BHI, CONE, WIX, CKH, NAII, SHPG, APLP, GTLS, EW, TEAM, COLM, LITE, EQGP, AMGN, VRTS, BBH, SXC, AWI, BGS, DLNG, BGS and GTLS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MWW 2) BHI 3) XHB 4) KEY 5) USO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CHK 2) NKE 3) SANM 4) JWN 5) BIIB
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Utilities +2.1% 2) Networking +1.7% 3) Gold & Silver +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GRVY, TMH, BRCD, DVA, L, INCR and CTB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TACO 2) CTL 3) LVLT 4) FTR 5) MET
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MSA 2) DE 3) VMW 4) WM 5) QCOM
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Monday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.25 -2.25 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 34.0 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.12 -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (CAH)/1.20
  • (SO)/1.18
  • (LL)/-.21
  • (LPX)/.36
  • (L)/.72
  • (D)/1.07
  • (DO)/.03
  • (WMB)/.17
  • (ZBH)/1.79
  • (APC)/-.56
  • (RAIL)/.15
  • (OLN)/.33
  • (OHI)/.84
  • (PPS)/.81
  • (THC)/.17
  • (TSO)/1.42
  • (VNO)/1.27
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for September is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in August.
  • Personal Spending for September is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in August. 
  • The PCE Core MoM for September is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in August. 
9:45 am EST
  • The Chicago Purchasing Manager for October is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 54.2 in September.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for October is estimated to rise to 1.8 versus -3.7 in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI report, Australia central bank decision, China Manufacturing PMI report, (ASML) investor day and the (SO) financial analysts meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken  into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on election uncertainty, technical selling, commodity weakness, yen strength, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst and earnings outlook concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • OPEC Splits Prevent Deal With Other Producers to Curb Supply. OPEC’s internal disagreements over how to implement oil-supply cuts agreed last month prevented a deal to secure the cooperation of other major suppliers. More than 18 hours of talks over two days in Vienna yielded little more than a promise that the world’s largest oil producers would keep on talking. Discussions will continue in late November, just days before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is supposed to finalize the accord that lifted oil prices to one-year highs. Non-OPEC nations ended talks with the group on Saturday without making any supply commitments, Brazil’s Oil and Gas Secretary Marcio Felix said after the meeting. The outcome of the process hinges on Iran and Iraq, two nations that are more interested in increasing production than reducing it, said Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Natiq Aliyev.
  • Pharma Stocks Struck as Drug Pricing Story Takes Its Toll. It’s been a brutal October for health-care investors. The worst may be yet to come. A year after presidential candidate Hillary Clinton first tweeted about outrageous price gouging, the reality of pricing pressure in the U.S. hit Wall Street in the most concrete way: earnings. From drug distributor McKesson & Co., to biotechnology giants Amgen Inc. and AbbVie Inc. and insulin maker Eli Lilly & Co., this week’s third-quarter results showcased widespread evidence that the industry has pulled back on prices under the growing pressure from politicians and pharmacy benefit managers. The crush has sent shares down in the U.S. and beyond, hitting foreign drugmakers like Denmark-based Novo Nordisk A/S, the world’s largest maker of insulin, that have a large portion of their business in the country.
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (VMC), (CTXS), (ITT), (HLT) and (JEC).
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: