Wednesday, February 01, 2017

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • These Chinese Developers Are Making Their Creditors Anxious. Chinese property developers investing in new ventures outside their core business are hurting their bonds. The notes of Sunac China Holdings Ltd and Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co. may come under more pressure this year as the groups branch out into non-core businesses. Purchases by highly leveraged Chinese developers unrelated to real estate raise the “knee-jerk question” of whether they might be having problems with their existing business, said Bryan Collins, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Fidelity International in Hong Kong.
  • Asian Stocks Mixed While Yen Strengthens After Fed. Australian and South Korean shares edged higher, while Japan’s Topix index erased an early advance as the yen resumed gains. Futures on the S&P 500 slipped after the gauge eked out a small increase on Wednesday. Oil slumped while gold advanced. The Aussie extended gains after trade data topped estimates. China markets remain closed for the final day of Lunar New Year holidays that started last Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.4 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.4 percent.
  • Gorsuch Pick Spurs Liberals’ Campaign for Democrats to Block. Liberal interest groups have already made up their minds on President Donald Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee, firing up an ambitious campaign to pressure Senate Democrats to block the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch. These efforts could put some Democrats in a particularly tough spot as they try to navigate the treacherous path ahead -- caught between an energized base geared up to battle Trump across the board and the political peril of denying a new president a high-court nominee with such a strong resume.
  • Fed Waiting to See Economic Results From Flurry of Trump Actions. Like everyone trying to figure out where the U.S. economy is heading, the Federal Reserve is waiting to see what the whirlwind of executive orders and remarks from President Donald Trump mean for growth as they weigh the timing of the next interest-rate hike.
  • Apple(AAPL) Holders Push Company to Put More Minorities in Top Ranks.
Wall Street Journal:
Zero Hedge:
Busines Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.25 -.25 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 32.25 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.87 +.04%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (AZN)/1.18
  • (ALV)/1.83
  • (BDX)/2.12
  • (BSX)/.29
  • (CI)/1.74
  • (CME)/1.10
  • (COP)/-.43
  • (DLPH)/1.60
  • (ETN)/1.10
  • (EL)/1.17
  • (IDXX)/.51
  • (IP)/.71
  • (KLIC)/.12
  • (MRK)/.89
  • (MKSI)/1.00
  • (PH)/1.39
  • (PM)/1.11
  • (RL)/1.64
  • (R)/1.42
  • (AMZN)/1.42
  • (AMGN)/2.79
  • (CMG)/.54
  • (CSC)/.71
  • (CY)/.14
  • (DECK)/4.23
  • (GPRO)/.24
  • (V)/.78
  • (POST)/.55
Economic Releases 
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for January.
8:30 am EST
  • Preliminary 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +3.0% gain in 3Q.
  • Preliminary 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +.7% gain in 3Q.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 250K versus 259K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2063K versus 2100K prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China PMI report, Eurozone PPI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (MU) analyst conference and the (FTNT) earnings conference call could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Positive Earnings Surprises, Yen Weakness, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.74 -2.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.20 +.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.65 -.37%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.70 -2.43%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 +5.0%
  • Total Put/Call .91 -10.78%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -10.07%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.97 -.08%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 402.0 -3.4%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.36 +.04%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.46 +3.65%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.31 +1.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 235.70 -.51%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 133.36 -.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 29.50 unch.
  • TED Spread 52.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.0 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.85 +.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .50% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 126.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $83.34/Metric Tonne n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.40 +7.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 57.60 +2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.10 +5.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -1.0 basis point
  • 48.6% chance of Fed rate hike at May 3 meeting, 71.4% chance at June 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +62 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating n/a open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my in my biotech/tech sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Zero Hedge:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -1.8% 2) Gold & Silver -1.5% 3) Telecom -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FHB, TMHC, PBI, UNVR, SN, MTCH, MANH, ADP, TUP, UPS, D, CCJ, PAYC, NCMI, BABY, SPR, MTH, MNRO, SM, CACC and CTXS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SYMC 2) BBBY 3) SPG 4) GGP 5) ATVI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RGC 2) KORS 3) RRTS 4) BGC 5) FOSL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +1.4% 2) HMOs +1.2% 3) I-Banks +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • OKS, ACXM, AVY, AAPL, ALGN, CARB, GSM, CARA, AMD, OLN, VNOM, WNC, ESPR, CRUS, DISH, ARNC, RNR, COH, ENR, GSM, TPX, ENR, SGMS and MNTA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CTSH 2) AVP 3) EL 4) DIS 5) UPS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AMD 2) MU 3) TWLO 4) SMP 5) COH
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: