Tuesday, August 01, 2017

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Tillerson Says ‘Peaceful Pressure’ Still Best North Korea Option. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson urged continued “peaceful pressure” on North Korea, even as one Republican senator ratcheted up talk of war. Taking stock of his tenure after six months in office, Tillerson told reporters at the State Department Tuesday that the U.S. goal isn’t to topple Kim Jong Un’s regime or find “an excuse to send our military north.” Instead, he said, it’s to get the regime to develop the “willingness to sit and talk with us and others, but with an understanding that a condition of those talks” is North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons capability.
  • Euro's Big Month Has Chart-Watchers Looking Back to 2010 Levels. After the euro surged through a critical technical level last week, analysts who study charts to help guide their predictions are looking back to 2010 for perspective on how high it could rise. Europe’s common currency traded at about $1.18 Tuesday, holding above the key $1.1714 mark that it breached July 26 for the first time since August 2015. The euro is coming off a five-month rally, its longest since 2013, propelled by interest-rate differentials that have gone in its favor and broad dollar weakness.
  • Toyota, Nissan, Honda Beat U.S. Forecasts as Local Cars Wane. Toyota Motor Corp. stood out as the only major automaker to increase U.S. sales last month and Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. both beat projections as demand at traditional U.S. automakers slumped. Sales at Toyota rose 3.6 percent in July, defying estimates of a decline of about the same magnitude. While sales at Nissan dropped 3.2 percent and slipped 1.2 percent at Honda, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected larger declines.
  • Technology Shares in Asia Gain on Apple Results. (video) Nasdaq futures advanced after Apple projected revenue in the current quarter that topped analysts’ estimates, while shares of Honda Motor Co. gained in Tokyo trading following the company’s higher profit forecast. The kiwi sank after hiring declined unexpectedly in New Zealand. Treasuries were steady after climbing with the dollar as data gave mixed signals on the strength of American economic growth. A drop in the Bloomberg Commodity Index weighed on raw-material producers in Asia after a stellar run. Japan’s Topix index gained 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.3 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.2 percent.
  • Pesticide ‘Drifting’ Wreaks Havoc Across U.S. Crops. Larry Martin in Illinois says he’s never seen anything like it in his 35 years of farming. Arkansas soybean grower Joe McLemore says he faces the loss of his life savings. They’re among farmers across the U.S. suffering from a pesticide "drifting" across from neighboring fields onto their crops, leaving behind a trail of damage. Although not a new problem, it’s re-emerged with a vengeance this year. At least 2.5 million acres (1 million hectares) have been damaged in this growing season through mid-July, according to estimates from Kevin Bradley, a professor of plant sciences at the University of Missouri.
  • Dow's Trip Toward 22,000 Brought to You by Boeing(BA), Visa(V) Earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s latest rally toward a round-number milestone is being fueled by a series of earnings-fomented share ignitions at companies from Boeing Co. to Visa Inc. Helped by the index’s old-fashioned methodology that apportions greater weight to higher-priced stocks, those two companies alone accounted for more than half of the Dow’s 614-point jump since the start of July. UnitedHealth Group Inc., Caterpillar Inc., and Chevron Corp. rounded out the top five, contributing an additional 135 points.
Wall Street Journal:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.75 -1.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 19.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.88 -.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.70%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

  • (AAWW)/.89
  • (BG)/.16
  • (CAH)/1.24
  • (DLPH)/1.65
  • (D)/.67
  • (HUM)/3.07
  • (IPI)/-.06
  • (JLL)/1.60
  • (KLIC)/.68
  • (MBLY)/.26
  • (TAP)/2.12
  • (MDLZ)/.46
  • (OSK)/1.37
  • (RDC)/-.30
  • (VMC)/1.21
  • (DDD)/.12
  • (AIG)/1.20
  • (CF)/-.05
  • (CAKE)/.76
  • (CRUS)/.66
  • (CLVS)/-1.90
  • (IAC)/.65
  • (MET)/1.28
  • (NXPI)/1.49
  • (OXY)/.12
  • (PPC)/.83
  • (PRU)/2.71
  • (RGR)/1.11
  • (SYMC)/.31
  • (TSLA)/-1.92
  • (RIG)/-.09
  • (WMB)/.26
Economic Releases  
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for July is estimated to rise to 190K versus 159K in June.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -3,614,200 barrels versus a -7,208,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,380,100 barrels versus a -1,015,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -1,377,500 barrels versus a -1,852,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.17% versus a +.3% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, China Services PMI report, Eurozone PPI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (COST)/(ZUMZ) monthly sales reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.03 -2.24%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.83 -.31%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.49 +.13%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 28.55 -4.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index n/a
  • Total Put/Call .85 -6.59%
  • NYSE Arms 1.18 +29.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.44 -1.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 435.0 +.4%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 50.07 -.52%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 5.1 +4.18%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.82 -1.16%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 190.22 -.02%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 140.57 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 24.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.0 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.89 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.07% unch.
  • Yield Curve 91.0-3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $73.56/Metric Tonne -.19%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -44.80 -1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.10 -3.0 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.30 +4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.79 -3.0 basis points
  • 21.1% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 46.1% chance at Dec. 13 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +35 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Euro-Area Economy Steams Ahead as ECB Waits for Inflation. (video) The euro-area economy expanded apace in the second quarter, a sign the bloc’s upswing is becoming increasingly robust and self-sustaining. Gross domestic product in the 19-country region rose 0.6 percent in the three months through June, after increasing 0.5 percent at the start of the year. That’s in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
  • Why a Little Economic Overheating Won't Spoil the Market Rally. The “Goldilocks” rally still has juice. That perfect environment to sustain broad market gains -- when global growth is fast enough to lift corporate profits, but tame enough to keep inflation muted -- should be in effect for at least another 12 months, according to Kevin Gaynor, the head of international economics at Nomura Holdings Inc
Wall Street Journal:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals -1.5% 2) Oil Service -1.1% 3) Steel -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • YRD, GNMK, UA, INVA, PBI, NLS, CMI, UAA, ICPT, TBI, ETN, DVAX, ICHR, HCP, GPRE, GOOD, IDXX, MLM, MOS, BKD, SLCA and SABR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KSS 2) SGMS 3) CHK 4) UA 5) COP
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) IDTI 2) REGN 3) OIS 4) F 5) SNAP
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders +1.5% 2) Disk Drives +1.5% 3) Telecom +.1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LL, OXFD, NVTA, HZN, TNET, TRU, CGNX, SIMO, SHOP, MEDP, SCG, TXRH, PLSE, CMCO, ROG, TREX, IPGP, NSP, IPHS, FMS, BTU, MEDP, RCL, JOBS, BP, IGT, GVA, CACC, MTH, TRI, APD, XRX, SAVE, SCG, MDC and COL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HCLP 2) LL 3) HL 4) GGP 5) IGT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CGNX 2) CACC 3) CLDX 4) SAVE 5) RCL
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +13.8% Above 100-Day Average
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
  • 53.6% of Issues Advancing, 42.8% Declining
  • 130 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
  • Vix 10.3 +.6%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.16 +26.3%