Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Merkel Defuses Coalition Clash Over Migration With Compromise. 

• ECB Faces Ghost of Rate Hikes Past a Decade After 2008 Misstep.

• U.K. Lawmakers Ask BOE, Treasury for Assessment of Brexit Deal.

• Asia Stocks Recover From Selloff; Crude Oil Gains. Stocks in Japan, South Korea and Australia recouped some of yesterday’s declines as investors continue to weigh the impact of potential global trade restrictions on economic growth. The dollar held on to gains, while Chinese assets remain in focus following another battering for stocks. Share indexes in Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul climbed. Hong Kong returns after Monday’s holiday when pronounced moves lower were seen across Asian equity markets. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index recovered its early losses to end the day higher as technology shares rose. Treasuries were steady, alongside gold and the yen. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.3 percent as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.6 percent. Futures on S&P 500 were flat.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• Fed Gave Wall Street Titans Path Around Stress-Test Failure.

• Tech’s ‘Dirty Secret’: App Developers Scanning Gmail.

• The Abortion Scare Campaign. 

• Vote Resets U.S.-Mexico Relations.

• IPO Market Posts Blistering First Half.

• Democrats Weigh Politics of Calls to Eliminate ICE.

MarketWatch.com:

• Stick with U.S. stocks — and avoid these 7 emerging-market traps.

• ‘It’s hard to be bearish stocks’ after looking at this chart, says veteran trader.

• Avi Gilburt: The S&P 500 still has two bullish paths.

Fox News:

• Bid to split California into 3 states gains traction – could it really happen?

• Cleric: Obama naturalized thousands of Iranian VIPs during nuke talks.

CNBC:      

• Virtual doctor start-up American Well is raising over $300 million and Philips is a new investor.

• After-hours buzz: MLHR, ACXM & more.

• Goldman: The second half is going to be difficult, but these stocks with strong balance sheets should thrive.

Zero Hedge:

• Democratic Socialists Openly Calling For Communism After Ocasio-Cortez Win.

• SEC Joins Federal Facebook Probe As Scope Broadens.

• Trump To Block Chinese Telecom Giant From Entering US Market.

• "Monetizing Poor People": Obama Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner Is Now A Predatory Lender.

• 7 Months After Fake Flynn Story "Epic Mistake", ABC Quietly Lets Brian Ross Go.

• Euro Jumps After CSU Leader Says Migration Clash With Merkel Resolved.

• Tesla(TSLA) Confirms Chief Engineer Has Left.

• Chamber Of Commerce Turns On Trump With Campaign To Oppose Tariffs.

• Jim Kunstler Fears The Democrats' "Turn For The Worse".

• Bitcoin Bounced, Tesla Trounced, Platinum Pummelled, Yield Curve Crushed.

Business Insider:

• The US is pumping out more oil than 12 of 14 OPEC members.

• Rental prices are soaring around the US.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.5 -1.0 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 15.5 +.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.16 +.02%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.17%.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (AYI)/2.17

• (AZZ)/.48

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for May are estimated unch. versus a -.8% decline in April.
  

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for June is estimated to rise to 17.0M versus 16.81M in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Retail Sales report and the US Weekly Retail Sales report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the close, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Bargain-Hunting, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.3 +.87%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.98 -.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.95 +2.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.23 +4.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 69.o -25.8%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.09 -11.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.87 +42.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.21 +.76%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 402.0 +1.07%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.16 +2.44%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 234.75 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.50 +3.65%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 191.16 +.38%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 147.88 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 unch.

• TED Spread 41.5 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -2.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.13 -.51%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.92% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 31.75 -.75 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 64.18 USD/Metric Tonne +.20%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.50 +10.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.40 +8.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.20 +.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 +2.0 basis points
  
• 78.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 26th meeting, 79.5% chance at November 8th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +18 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -75 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.5% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 38.7% of Issues Advancing, 58.1% Declining
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 78 New Lows
• 45.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.7%
• Vix 17.5 +8.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.07 -13.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.42 +13.1%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump's Trade War Arrives in the Data as China Awaits Tariffs.

• Car Companies, Parts Makers Urge U.S. to Abandon Tariff Plan.

• Curve-Flattening Juggernaut Faces Risk From Fed Concern on Trade. 

• Live: Mexico Votes in Presidential Election.

• Asian Stocks Face Mixed Start to Week; Oil Drops. Stocks in Asia looked set to kick off the second half of 2018 in a mixed fashion, while oil declined and the euro came under pressure over German political concerns. Investors will be focused again on Chinese assets after the biggest weekly drop in the yuan since the 2015 devaluation stoked concerns about the currency’s use as a tool in the trade spat. Equity futures in Japan were little changed ahead of the quarterly Tankan survey of business confidence. Australian futures rose. Hong Kong is closed for a holiday. Oil slid below $74 a barrel in New York after U.S. President Donald Trump called for higher production. Crude surged more than 8 percent last week. Futures on the S&P 500 rose less than 0.1 percent as of 7:05 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge closed up 0.1 percent on Friday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average were little changed. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.4 percent.

Wall Street Journal:

• Businesses Blast California’s New Data-Privacy Law.

• Mexicans Say They Will Vote for Change.

• How to Teach Legal Rights to Migrant Children: Games and Coloring.

• Amazon’s(AMZN) PillPack Deal Gives It Access to Sensitive Health Data.

• Facebook(FB) Gave Firms Special Access to Users’ Personal Data.

• Skip the Seasickness: How Boats Are Getting Tech-Savvy.

• Merkel’s Coalition in Jeopardy Over EU Migration.

• Taiwan’s Technology Secrets Come Under Assault From China.

• Dollar Rally Ripples Globally, Leading Investors to Reverse Course.

MarketWatch.com:

• Investors look to the second half of 2018 expecting growth—amid rising uncertainties.

Fox News:

• Top Democrat bucks far left’s calls to abolish agency, demands policy changes instead.

CNBC:

• Iran urges OPEC members to refrain from unilateral actions.

• Retaliation for US tariffs begins with Canada on Sunday--and take aim at ketchup, whiskey and soup.

• Why RBC's top strategist thinks there's 'no way around' tighter oil supply with even higher prices. 

• Trump 'not happy' with NAFTA, says he wants to wait until after the midterms to sign a new deal.

• Dell to acquire tracking stock, leave VMware alone for the time being, sources say.

• A robot cooks and assembles burgers in 5 minutes at this new San Francisco restaurant.

Zero Hedge:     

• Germany's Interior Minister Seehofer To Resign After Clash With Merkel Over Migrants.

• Last-Minute New Jersey Budget Compromise Reached Thanks To More Tax Hikes For The Rich.

• The "Doom Loop" Makes A Thunderous Return: Guess Who Just Bought A Record Amount Of Italian Bonds.

• Goldman Closes Out "Top Trade" To Short Treasuries.

• Italy's Salvini Vows To Create Pan-European Association Of Nationalist Parties

• Trump Talks Trade, Borders, SCOTUS, And Warns Enemies "They Better Just Take It Easy".

• TechCrunch: Over 1000 Crypto Projects Are Considered 'Dead' Now.

• Riot Breaks Out In Portland As Antifa Activists Clash With Conservative Marchers.

• The Venus Flytrap Of Western Civilization: Entitlements.

• "It's Real, It's Coming, It's A Matter Of Time" - US General Warns Of Hypersonic Attack.

• White House, Saudi Arabia Pour Cold Water On Trump's "Saudi Deal".

• "2018 Is Looking Increasingly Like 2015": Why JPMorgan Expects Even More Pain From China.

• In San Francisco, Families Making $117,000 Qualify For Low-Income Housing.

Business Insider:

• Here's what the typical American worker earns at every age. 

• Tesla(TSLA) reportedly hit its Model 3 manufacturing milestone, hours after the deadline.

• How various industries are taking advantage of drones to increase efficiency and cut costs.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.245% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.0 -1.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 15.0 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.51 +.04%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.55%

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• (MLHR)/.58 

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.8% gain in April.

• ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 58.2 versus 58.7 in May.

• ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 74.3 versus 79.5 in May..

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Manufacturing PMI report, Eurozone PMI report and the Eurozone PPI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Week Ahead by TheStreet.

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as stable long-term rates, US economic optimism and yen weakness offsets trade war fears, European/Emerging Markets debt angst and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.