Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Short-Coverig, Technical Buying, Yen Weakness, Retail/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.6 -4.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.29 +.30%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.94 -1.19%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.33 +8.25%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +31.5%
  • Total Put/Call 1.17 -7.1%
  • NYSE Arms .62 -38.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.98 -.93%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 520.0 +4.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.75 +.61%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 310.0 +14.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.55 +1.05%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 205.97 -.98%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.0 -.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -48.0 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.49 +.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.32% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 26.75 -.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 74.14 USD/Metric Tonne -1.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.0 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.3 -14.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.90 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 unch.
  • 71.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 72.3% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +36 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services -1.6% 2) Shipping -.5% 3) Software -.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AQUA, CMTA, TXRH, APTI, ARLP, NLS, PX, WAB, FLIR, GE, IRWD, UVE, SSTK, RDY APPF, EGRX, IBM, OMAB, AGN, WSO, AMSF, CSGP, RGS, PACW, CVLT, AN, REV, QTS, CTSH, RCKT, SCI, AEIS, INCY, FGEN, UVE, WAB, SSTK, APTI and IRWD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IMMU 2) ESRX 3) UA 4) XPO 5) GE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GE 2) HOG 3) LL 4) IRWD 5) WFT
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Retail +2.4% 2) Road & Rail +2.2% 3) Video Gaming +2.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ESIO, VCYT, KS, HZO, UAA, AKAM, CHGG, VMC, SANM, ORBK, CGNX, NEO, KEM, INST, TTWO, AMED, HEES, EXP, MLM, IPGP, MHK, AMT, MTH, SUM, FSLR and EFII
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) QEP 2) KKR 3) VIRT 4) UA 5) NOG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) UAA 2) AKAM 3) KEM 4) TTWO 5) SHOO
Charts:

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Monday, October 29, 2018

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:           
Wall St. Journal:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.75 +1.5 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.5 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.41 +.03%.
  • FTSE 100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (AET)/2.81
  • (AGCO)/.82
  • (AMT)/1.66
  • (BP)/.14
  • (EAT)/.45
  • (KO)/.55
  • (CTSH)/1.13
  • (CMI)/3.76
  • (FLIR)/.56
  • (GE)/.20
  • (HCA)/1.91
  • (HMC)/81.23
  • (LL)/.17
  • (LYB)/2.68
  • (MA)/1.68
  • (BTU)/1.06
  • (PFE)/.75
  • (SNE)/104.14
  • (VMC)/1.40
  • (WLH)/.66
  • (WH)/.86
After the Close:
  • (DDD)/.03
  • (AMGN)/3.45
  • (APC)/.86
  • (BIDU)/2.56
  • (CAKE)/.58
  • (EBAY)/.54
  • (EA)/.58
  • (FB)/1.44
  • (HLF)/.66
  • (H)/.25
  • (MXIM)/.75
  • (MGM)/.21
  • (NCR)/.54
  • (OI)/.75
  • (SKYW)/1.40
  • (YUMC)/.46
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for August is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.09% gain in September. 
10:00 am EST
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October is estimated to fall to 135.9 versus 138.4 in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI/Industrial Production, GDP  reports, weekly US retail sales reports, (KEY) investor meeting and the (AAPL) special event could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Emerging Market Debt/Currency Angst, Earnings Jitters, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.9 +7.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.97 +.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.91 -.90%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.32 +4.69%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -9.2%
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 -14.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.24 +12.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.83 +1.13%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 490.0 +2.15%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.13 -2.31%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 296.0 -13.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.44 +1.71%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 208.85 +2.44%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.25 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.75 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -49.75 -3.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.42 -.45%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.30% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 27.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 74.35 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.9 +1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.6 +2.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.50 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -1.0 basis point
  • 71.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 72.3% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -150 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -96 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -100 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and my emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long