Friday, June 21, 2019

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,954.01 +2.35%
 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 26,795.71 +2.72%
  • NASDAQ 8,038.71 +3.11%
  • Russell 2000 1,549.52 +1.81%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 42.42 +3.59%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 152.86 +1.93%
  • Wilshire 5000 30,327.68 +2.27%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,599.51 +2.68%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,253.21 +1.93%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 605.53 +.48%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,087.40 +.22%
  • NYSE Technology 1,908.56 +4.03%
  • Transports 10,390.47 +.85%
  • Utilities 826.78 +1.43%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 71.30 +.32%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.79 +3.45%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,218.75 +.17%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 961.22 +.08%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 360,910 +1.19%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 807 +781
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 65.7 +39.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 351,655 -12.1%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,057,046 -1.03%
  • Total Put/Call .77 -23.1%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.19 +10.0%
  • ISE Sentiment 108.0 +4.4%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -19.81%
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.76 -4.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.34 -.19%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.11 +1.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.18 -1.3%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 15,211.93 +.81%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.172 Trillion +.28%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$6.210 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 29.5 +10.0%
  • AAII % Bears 32.1 -6.1%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 178.81 +2.4%
  • Crude Oil 57.52 +9.5%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 185.65 +6.38%
  • Natural Gas 2.19 -8.42%
  • Heating Oil 191.71 +4.45%
  • Gold 1,400.0 +3.94%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 173.58 +1.05%
  • Copper 270.20 +3.48%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 289.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.34%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.16 USD/Metric Tonne +6.34%
  • Lumber 392.80 +1.48%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 918.20 -.56%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.05% +66.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.3% -40.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0947 +10.41%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 635.41 +212.92%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 175.27 +.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.40 -7.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -1.30 +18.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.20 -2.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/31
  • US Dollar Index 96.28 -.93%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,644.30 +1.30%
  • Bitcoin/USD 9,928.46 +16.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.74 +.12%
  • Yield Curve 28.5 +4.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.06% -2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.805 Trillion -.15%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.93 -7.0%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 134.99 unch.
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.5 -16.75 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.85 -15.6%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.56 -8.26%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.83 -.87%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.09 -5.07%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 113.02 -8.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.75 +.08%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73% +8.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 26.0 -1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.5 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 +2.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 54.82 -11.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 603.0 -3.73%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 67.30 -14.15%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 175.56 -10.3%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.850 Trillion -1.59%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,112.6 +1.3%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 218,750 +1,000
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.84% +2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 511.80 -3.4%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.8 +.2 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.20% +20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.67/gallon -.04/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,194.0 +10.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 818.83 +.91%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50+28.6%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 270,604 +1.6%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +2.9%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +1.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Coal +10.7%
  • Oil Service +10.0%
  • Gold & Silver +7.0%
  • Biotech +5.1%
  • Semis +4.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • REITs +.6% 
  • Banks +.3%
  • Foods -.7%
  • Homebuilders -2.2%
  • Tobacco -4.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)
  • OSTK, PBF, SE, GBT, EPZM, GTHX, KMX, PRFT and CVI
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)
  • ARE, BGS, SFM, SPTN, KR, AX, AMC, CCL, MO, PZZA, CXW, GEF, SEE and ANAB
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Iran Tensions, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Profit-Taking, Homebuilding/Telecom Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -.47%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.71 +.66%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.18 -1.68%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.16 +2.79%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -25.5%
  • Total Put/Call .77 -2.5%
  • NYSE Arms .83 +12.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.86 +1.33%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 604.0 -3.73%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.20 -.56%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.5 -3.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.85 +.21%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 176.28 +1.98%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.75 +.10%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.5 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 26.0 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.27 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.1% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 28.50 +1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.52%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -62.40 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -1.3 +14.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.20 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.74 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +17 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -47 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long