Friday, August 16, 2019

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +1.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -1.0% 2) Utilities +.1% 3) Restaurants +.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ADS, DDS, TRUP, DVA, PII, AMAT, CVET, GLOB, SSL, UGLD, ALEC, VGLT, SKM, TLRY, TPTX, KL, ISRG, HXL, USLV, RYAAY, PTLA and INSP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) GPS 2) SFIX 3) AMAT 4) LEN 5) DE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SAEX 2) TRUP 3) ADS 4) DDS 5) HXL
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +2.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +3.2% 2) Banks +2.5% 3) Retail +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CONE, DZSI, ADUS, PAGS, NVDA, EXEL, TPR, KTOS, TDOC, ZYXI and APPN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DISCA 2) CBS 3) WAB 4) HPE 5) SGMS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SLDB 2) NVDA 3) TJX 4) DE 5) AMD
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, August 15, 2019

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:   
  • Asia Stocks Slip as Bond Yields Extend Recent Fall. Stocks in Asia slipped after another tumultuous session on Wall Street and further declines in Treasury yields, on heightened trade uncertainty and fears of a slowing global economy. Japanese shares opened lower along with South Korea. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index edged higher after the U.S. gauge swung more than 1% for a 12th straight day in above-average volume before finally ending the day up. The dollar was little changed. Money continued to pile into bonds, with these the latest milestones reached: Japan’s Topix index fell 0.4% as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the S&P 500 Index added 0.1%. The underlying gauge rose 0.3% on Thursday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.8%.  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.0 unch..
  • China Sovereign CDS 56.0 +.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.62 -.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.38%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (DE)/2.84
  • (QD)/.52
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for July is estimated to rise to 1256K versus 1253K in June.
  • Building Permits for July is estimated to rise to 1270K versus 1220K in June.
10:00 am EST
  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August is estimated to fall to 97.0 versus 98.4 in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Financial/Utility Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.9 -.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.30 -.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 +.78%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.3 -1.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 +18.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.15 -9.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.55 -56.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.69 +2.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 423.0 +5.17%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.97 -3.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 204.5 -11.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.32 +2.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 21210.97 -2.4%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.65 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.5 +5.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.25 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.65 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.89% -6.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 3.25 +2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 85.25 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.7 +7.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -64.10 +.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.0 +1.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.55 -3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -2.5% 2) Networking -2.4% 3) Retail -2.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • HONE, DCPH, ACMR, PCN, TPR, VMW, STNE, NXST, W, CGC, CSCO, GMAB, SUN, MYGN, NOVA, ASR, WK, M, WES, SEDG, CAE, CPRI, CBS, CLNC, PTY, CBS and AMAG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ODP 2) GE 3) LB 4) SWK 5) CSCO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GE 2) BGG 3) CPRI 4) F 5) URBN
Charts: