Thursday, April 30, 2020

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -3.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -5.1% 2) Steel -4.3% 3) Banks -4.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TSLA, SPG, CHWY, FUL, HCC, STL, CEQP, NCLH, INGR, SNDX, INOV, ALGN, TDOC, AGIO, SIX, AAL, PJT, SPR, CINF, CCL, UBSI, DAL, UAL, MGPI, EAT, TWTR, TTEK, SWK, NEO, TAP, INSG, BHE, WCC, MXL and OLN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EWU 2) EMB 3) KRE 4) NOW 5) HOG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TSLA 2) OLN 3) ZM 4) AAL 5) SUM
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Software +.3% 2) Internet -.5% 3) Pharma -.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KRA, NGVT, ZYXI, ABMD, AVTR, FLWS, NOW, ARCT, OSTK, AIMC, ELY and MTSI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CDEV 2) UA 3) TXMD 4) CPE 5) MTDR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NOW 2) CHD 3) MMC 4) HOLX 5) MMC
Charts:

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:              
  • Asia Stocks Set to Track U.S. Gains; Dollar Drops. Asian stocks were primed for gains on the final day of the month after U.S. equities advanced with Treasury yields on optimism from earnings and signs of progress in treating the coronavirus. The dollar fell. Futures on equities rose in Tokyo and Sydney, with Hong Kong shut for a holiday. Nasdaq futures climbed after results from Microsoft Corp., Facebook Inc. and Tesla Inc. lifted sentiment. The S&P 500 Index earlier gained more than 2.5% to touch a seven-week high. Gilead Sciences Inc. said its experimental drug helped Covid-19 patients recover faster. Oil futures rebounded after plunging more than 25% in two sessions. Futures on the S&P 500 Index added 0.3% as of 7:22 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge increased 2.7% on Wednesday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 2.1%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 2%. 
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC.com:
Zero Hedge:      
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.25 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.25 -5.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.79 +.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.11%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.51%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (MO)/.99
  • (AAL)/-2.36
  • (BAX)/.74
  • (CRI)/.15
  • (CHD)/.77
  • (CI)/4.37
  • (CMCSA)/.67
  • (COP)/.17
  • (ETN)/1.07
  • (FCN)/1.54
  • (GT)/-.24
  • (IDXX)/1.20
  • (ICE)/1.22
  • (IP)/.42
  • (K)/.95
  • (KHC)/.54
  • (MCD)/1.55
  • (TAP)/.33
  • (PH)/2.26
  • (SWK)/1.08
  • (TPR)/-.02
  • (TWTR)/.10 
After the Close:
  • (AMZN)/6.23
  • (AMGN)/3.75
  • (AAPL)/2.26
  • (CXP)/.70
  • (CUZ)/.70
  • (DLPH)/-.09
  • (LOCO)/.10
  • (EXPE)/-1.22
  • (FSLR)/.41
  • (FWRD)/.39
  • (GILD)/1.56
  • (ILMN)/1.25
  • (MGM)/-.32
  • (PSA)/2.57
  • (RMD)/1.01
  • (SYK)/1.74
  • (X)/-.82
  • (UAL)/-3.04
  • (V)/1.35
  • (WDC)/.92
  • (WHR)/2.52
  • (ZEN)/.06
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for March is estimated to fall -1.5% versus a +.6% gain in Feb.
  • Personal Spending for March is estimated to fall -5.0% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  • The PCE Core MoM for March is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 3500K versus 4427K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 19476K versus 15976K prior.
  • The 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in 4Q.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to fall to 37.7 versus 47.8 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB Decision/Press Conference, Eurozone CPI report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (F) fireside chat and (M) fireside chat could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by transportation and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Diminishing Coronavirus Fears, Global Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Energy/Airline Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 31.5 -6.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.33 +.32%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 -3.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.33 -4.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +19.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .98 +2.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.45 +98.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.20 -5.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 1,429.98 -1.5%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.50 -5.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 225.25 +5.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.50 -1.84%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 326.26 -7.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.57 -.26%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 75.0 -4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 18.0 -4.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  121.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.74 +1.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 44.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.88 USD/Metric Tonne -.98%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -117.30 -12.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -239.80 -32.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.1 +7.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.14 -1.0 basis point
  • n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +659 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -65 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long