Thursday, December 31, 2020

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.2% 2) Homebuilding -1.6% 3) Biotech -1.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BFT, BAND, BGS, LRCX, AMCI, SNOW, BBBY, EXPI, RVMD, VLDR, THBR, STMP, THCB, M, NVTA, OPEN, GOEV, FSRV, SKLZ, BLI, MRNA, RXT, WW, LMND, BRKS, EOSE, ARCT, SPRO, AMWL, BLNK, ESPR, ACCD, NKTR, IMMR, OSTK, MARA, EDIT, REPL, MCRB, BYSI, NK, DMTK, QS, FUBO and ORIC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) VNQ 2) PHM 3) IFF 4) UAA 5) IGV
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LMND 2) PLTR 3) SPLK 4) KXIN 5) WB
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +2.7% 2) Computer Hardware +1.4% 3) Shipping +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LC, BTBT, CELH, WDC, AVID, FLGT, ODT, EIGR and ELF
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) LC 2) MNST 3) CELH 4) IRBT 5) TIF
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GNBT 2) GBCS 3) TAYD 4) COP 5) NVDA
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

 NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -35.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
  • 50.0% of Issues Advancing, 46.9% Declining
  • 62 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
  • 84.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 51.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,472.0 +27.0 points
  • Vix 22.5 -.9%
  • Total Put/Call .89 +9.9%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.44 +61.8%

Wednesday, December 30, 2020

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:    
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com:  
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:

@kylenabecker:

  • "The COVID-driven centralization of economic power and information control in the hands of a few corporate monopolies poses enduring threats to political freedom." Chillingly accurate from @ggreenwald:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Politico:
Daily Caller:
NTD News:
ProtectTheVote.com: 
HereIsTheEvidence.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 27.50 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 63.01 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,450.0 +5.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.65 -.11%
  • FTSE 100 futures -.71%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 833K versus 803K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 5390K versus 5337K prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The South Korean trade data report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Year-End Window Dressing, Short-Covering, Oil Gain, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.0 -.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,455.0 +57.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.22 -.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +1.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.8 -1.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +31.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 -2.6%
  • NYSE Arms .82 -25.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.15 -1.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 560.11 +.11%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.83 +1.16%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -1.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 152.49 -1.36%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 184.27 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +9.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.25 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.98 +.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 80.75 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 157.20 USD/Metric Tonne +2.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.80 +4.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 190.50 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 70.4 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +31 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -67 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Telecom -.6% 2) Internet -.1% 3) Software -.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • HZO, ORCC, OPEN, BGS, CGBD, RARE, IEA, PTGX, IMMR, BEAM and FUBO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EPR 2) CLF 3) AKAM 4) XLP 5) IVR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TRIT 2) FUBO 3) PFE 4) QIWI 5) SPLK
Charts: