Friday, February 26, 2021

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -4.3% 2) Steel -2.3% 3) Energy -2.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GME, KOSS, AMC, RNA, DRNA, HOL, NRG, MILE, CRM, WEX, BMRN, TPC, FL, CLVR, REGI, SRAC, CARS, CDXC, SUPN, FOCS, FLR, ENV, CRI, WKHS, INT, ROOT, ZYXI and VST
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) VST 2) FL 3) HPQ 4) CVNA 5) WW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TPIC 2) SPCE 3) FLY 4) NKLA 5) MPLN
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gaming +3.4% 2) Homebuilding +2.7% 3) Semis +2.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AMCX, FSR, SEM, ABNB, RKT, LPSN, ETSY, AERI, W, TRIP, MGNX, GRPN, UVE, WW, CVNA, CZR, RVLV, ACHC, CCIV, SSP, NTRA, EVH, EB, DKNG, BLUE, HPQ, VAC, WSC, FTAI, RCII and DMYI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HPQ 2) VST 3) COF 4) FL 5) DHI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LPSN 2) CVNA 3) ETSY 4) HPQ 5) DKNG
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +32.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
  • 31.3% of Issues Advancing, 66.2% Declining
  • 23 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
  • 80.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 47.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,248.0 -315.0 points
  • Vix 29.9 +3.6%
  • Total Put/Call .94 +19.0%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.89 +132.0%

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.25 +3.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 31.75 +2.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.96 -.13%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,497.0 -66.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.7 -5.6%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -1.0%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures-.26%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (CRI)/2.73
  • (DKNG)/-.49
  • (FLR)/.21
  • (FL)/1.35
  • (SSP)/.87
  • (STRA)/1.50
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated to widen to -$83.0B versus -$82.5B in Dec.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in Dec. 
  • Personal Income for Jan. is estimated to rise +9.5% versus a +.6% gain in Dec.
  • Personal Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a -.2% decline in Dec.
  • The PCE Core MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Feb. is estimated to fall to 61.0 versus 63.8 in Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Senate Intel Hearing on SolarWinds hack and the Eurozone Import Price report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, Valuation Concerns, Emerging Market Debt Angst, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 27.0 +26.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,680.0 -121.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.53 +.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 +1.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.4 +9.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -36.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .74 +7.3%
  • NYSE Arms .73 +14.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.17 +6.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 474.85 -1.37%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.02 +3.48%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.78 -.27%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 181.89 +8.22%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 186.33 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.25 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.17 -1.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 127.0 +5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 171.85 USD/Metric Tonne +3.44%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 85.0 +4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 160.4 +6.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 62.7 +2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -297 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -158 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -45 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my energy/industrial/medical/biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -3.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -5.5% 2) Homebuilding -5.5% 3) Semis -4.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PLAB, BKNG, ADPT, FAF, FNF, RCL, MNRL, MGTA, PBFX, GTES, KURA, NCLH, HALO, SFTW, GPRE, GBOX, NVDA, TMDX, RTP, GH, DPZ, ACIC, PLTR, DMYI, UNVR, SBGI, ANSS, BBY, VAPO, TREE, TRIP, VVNT, PTVE, CLF, SPT, NTAP, TRTX, FRX, TDOC, GBT, HZO, PGNY, ACA, RDFN, PLAN, ESTC, PZZA, CARS, HSC, IIPR, HCC and PING
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EMB 2) BK 3) KMX 4) RDFN 5) TDOC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HCC 2) PING 3) EH 4) FUBO 5) GBT
Charts: