Monday, March 29, 2021

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Utility/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.5 +8.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,833.0 -25.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.64 -.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +.72%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.5 -1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +19.4 points
  • Total Put/Call .87 -2.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 -20.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.76 +.68%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 483.54 -.60%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.99 -2.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.25 -.75 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.73 +.23%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 184.43 +1.68%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.78 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.75 +.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.0 -.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 152.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 160.30 USD/Metric Tonne +4.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.60 -3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 163.10 +11.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.60 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +35 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +71 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -2.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -4.6% 2) Education -3.5% 3) Gaming -3.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TCRR, STAA, STL, ROOT, MAC, MSGN, FPI, VIAC, REPL, PCT, TCBI and CLDX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NLSN 2) HGEN 3) PCG 4) PLAY 5) GIS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PLUG 2) MINE 3) RIDE 4) CODX 5) VLDR
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Utilities +.6% 2) Defense +.5% 3) Telecom +.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • HGEN, DBI, IONS, KTOS, X, CHPT, BLUE, ECOM, UPST, AVNW and ALEC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KTOS 2) HGEN 3) XLP 4) ISREG 5) ADP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) FLY 2) BLUE 3) BA 4) TAP 5) TWTR

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -8.4% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sector Declining
  • 27.7% of Issues Advancing, 69.3% Declining
  • 167 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
  • 87.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 52.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,742.0 -115.0 points
  • Vix 21.3 +13.2%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -7.9%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.52 +5.6%

Sunday, March 28, 2021

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:             
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC:  
Zero Hedge: 
MarketWatch.com:    
NewsMax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 34.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.15 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,865.0 +6.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.75 +1.7%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.1%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.38%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.42%

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (CALM)/.06
After the Close:
  • (SEER)/-.31
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to fall to 14.5 versus 17.2 in Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • (SHW) 3-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan unemployment rate could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, March 27, 2021

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:         
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (WBT) and (HRB).
MarketWatch.com:      
Newsmax:  
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com: