Sunday, April 04, 2021

Monday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 32.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.19 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,092.0 -52.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.57 -2.1%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.57%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • The ISM Services Index for March is estimated to rise to 58.5 versus 55.5 in Feb.
  • Factory Orders for Feb. is estimated to fall -.5% versus a +2.6% gain in Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Consumer Confidence Index and the (F) US sales conference call could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Thursday, April 01, 2021

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 32.75 -2.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.31 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,106.0 +35.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.75 -1.29%.
  • FTSE 100 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated at 650K versus 379K in Feb.
  • The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated at 6.0% versus 6.2% in Feb.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • Closed

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.1 -6.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,039.0 +128.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.70 +.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.85 -1.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.4 -2.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -4.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .66 -10.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.65 +1.23%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.70 -4.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 474.97 -.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.92 -3.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.64 -.61%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 179.42 -3.39%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.87 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.25 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.30 +.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 158.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 157.20 USD/Metric Tonne -.21%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.50 +8.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 172.30 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.60 -3.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +257 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +27 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/industrial/energy sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -.6% 2) Utilities -.4% 3) Healthcare Providers -.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TLS, KMX, USCR, BTAI, EBS and MVIS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) STZ 2) KMX 3) GILD 4) DISH 5) KMB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) UI 2) FUV 3) XL 4) PLUG 5) VRM
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +3.7% 2) Semis +3.0% 3) Energy +2.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • UTHR, SUNW, VLDR, PUBM, GPRE, LPRO, PLBY, VIVO, ACLS, ANGI, CONN, QS, GES, MRO, FNKO, MDB, THBR, UCTT, INTZ, LUNG, ASO, CHPT, ENTG, WING, WDC, DEN, USAC, AMAT, WSC, MSGE, MU, CCS and MEG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ANGI 2) PAVM 3) MPC 4) CSCO 5) QCOM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GES 2) MU 3) AYI 4) WDC 5) GILD

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -14.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sector Declining
  • 70.1% of Issues Advancing, 27.3% Declining
  • 100 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
  • 87.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,033.0 +122.0 points
  • Vix 18.0 -7.1%
  • Total Put/Call .60 -18.9%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.37 -16.0%