Monday, August 30, 2021

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Fed Taper Worries, Lower Long-Term Rates, Sector Rotation, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.1 -1.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,868.0 +49.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.81 +.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.93%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.3 +.94%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 124.0  -15.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 -12.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.3 +63.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.12 -1.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 417.90 -.6%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.32 +.01%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.75 -4.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 151.81 -1.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.49 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 7.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.75 +1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.14 +.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 108.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 156.90 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -50.7 -1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.9 -2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.6 -4.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.2% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 333 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +3/100K people
  • 62% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -79 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -2.6% 2) Oil Service -1.9% 3) Gold & Silver -1.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SAVA and ADTN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BBIG 2) ISEE 3) GIS 4) HOG 5) MMAT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ASTR 2) SAVA 3) AKTS 4) EAT 5) COF
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Shipping +1.4% 2) Computer Hardware +1.2% 3) Medical Equipment +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AFRM, SPRT, BGFV, INMB, IRDM, HRC, SKYT, AGFY, DVAX, ASTS, MRSN, MTTR, CONN, FLYW, PSTG, MQ, OLLI, TXG, BLI, COMP, OSCR, SEMR, FIGS, TASK, RCKT, DV, COHU, TCS, HAIN, HIBB, RXT, PYPL, ETWO, BLFS, HEAR, BAX, DKS, CVET and FBRX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GSAT 2) ALTO 3) BBIG 4) BAX 5) KSU
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GSAT 2) BBIG 3) AFRM 4) HRC 5) SPRT

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -21.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 10 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
  • 46.3% of Issues Advancing, 49.4% Declining
  • 147 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
  • 72.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 51.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,871.0 +52.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,808 +.89%
  • Vix 16.4 -.12%
  • Total Put/Call .74 -14.0%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.14 +50.0%

Sunday, August 29, 2021

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:             
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
NY Post: 
CNBC:
Zero Hedge: 
MarketWatch.com:             
NewsMax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 33.25 -1.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.06 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,826.0 +6.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 -.28%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (CLDR)/.09
After the Close:
  • (ZM)/1.16
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -1.9% decline in June.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for August is estimated to fall to 22.9 versus 27.3 in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Unemployment Rate, China Manufacturing PMI and the Germany Inflation report could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, August 28, 2021

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                 
Wall Street Journal:  
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MSFT), (GOOG), (AAPL), (AMZN), (FB), (JEF), (STEM) and (SPOT).
MarketWatch.com:     
NY Post: 
Fox News: 
Newsmax:    
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com: