Friday, October 01, 2021

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,366.38 -1.9%*


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices
  • DJIA 34,372.0 -1.1%
  • NASDAQ 14,573.56 -3.1%
  • Russell 2000 2,250.85 +.07%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 74.91 -.99%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 316.06 -1.71%
  • Wilshire 5000 45,281.42 -1.9%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,793.05 -3.3%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,570.04 -.47%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 717.60 -2.3%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,414.08 -1.09%
  • NYSE Technology 4,152.83 -3.7%
  • Transports 14,269.0 -.23%
  • Utilities 876.0 -1.7%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.5 +1.9%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 50.42 -.76%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,455.98 -.93%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 928.74 +.2%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 475,185 -.72%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -280 -370
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.2 -4.3%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 355,978 +.26%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,101,558 -2.0%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -6.1%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.32 +8.67%
  • ISE Sentiment 106.0 +26.0 point
  • NYSE Arms .58 -27.4
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,980.0 -213.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 5.37 -3.97%
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.8 +17.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.41 +6.5%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.06 +1.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.8 +.11%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,901.50 -2.3%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.544 Trillion +.64%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -15.536 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 28.1 -6.0%
  • AAII % Bears 40.7 +3.8%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 230.38 +1.6%
  • Crude Oil 75.65 +1.7%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 224.66 +3.8%
  • Natural Gas 5.58 +8.0%
  • Heating Oil 237.70 +3.5%
  • Gold 1,757.56 +.59%
  • Silver 22.52 +.65%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 469.16 -3.7%
  • Copper 420.25 -2.28%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 440.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.45%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 120.70 USD/Metric Tonne +3.3%
  • Lumber 634.80 -.78%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,297.0 +1.45%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 610.0 USD/Short Ton +.83%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.2% -.5 percentage point
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.4% -.2 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 10.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +7.6 -6.4%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 75.9 -10.4%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 214.55 +.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.8 +7.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -59.7 +3.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.7 +3.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 11/3
  • US Dollar Index 94.02 +.89%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,722.26 -.38%
  • Bitcoin/USD 47,464 +8.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.87 -.8%
  • Yield Curve 120.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.47% +2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.408 Trillion -.5%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.43 +21.2%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 128.21 +4.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.06 +4.3%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 204.18 +1.8%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.32 +1.8%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.57 +.14%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 89.20 +3.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 36.85 -.89%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39% +5.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 9.75 +.75 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 -13.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.33 +3.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 315.0 +4.8%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 56.72 +2.5%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 181.76 +3.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 71.25 -3.0 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 71.5 -.25 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.2 +1.1 percentage points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,184.90 -.3%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 340,000 +1.3%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.0% -10.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.01% +13.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 734,900 -1.1%
  • Langer Consumer Comfort 54.7 -1.6 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +16.3% unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $3.19/gallon unch.
  • Baltic Dry Index 5,167 +11.3%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,235.26 +2.5%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 164.86 +6.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 272,644 +.67%
  • US Covid-19:  240 infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -33/100K people
  • US Covid-19:  45% of Jan. 7th,2021 peak -6.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value -1.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -4.9%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +5.7%
  • Energy +4.7%
  • Gambling +2.1%
  • Banks +1.7%
  • Defense +.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Medical Equipment -5.1%
  • Retail -5.1%
  • Biotech -6.0%
  • Semis -6.1%
  • Robotics -6.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (26)
  • AVIR, METC, SPWR, MRK, TGI, CEIX, IFF, CF, UAL, NOG, VERX, DAL, ULCC, PVAC, AMTX, SI, GOGO, VGR, INSW, BTU, CUK, OII, SGMS, GEL, HRI and FUN
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (31)
  • LZ, TLRY, PDSB, RGEN, GRTS, NUE, COMP, VERI, BAND, PRCH, ZYXI, LMND, CHPT, SGFY, SLGC, XMTR, QDEL, REGN, ORMP, SWAV, UPST, RLAY, RXRX, MRNA, MRVI, DVAX, NVAX, HG, VIR, IRNT and ADGI
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Declining Covid Cases/Fears, Oil Gain, Commodity/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.1 -8.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,954.0 +110.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.90 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.9 -3.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 114.0  +68.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .93 -11.4%
  • NYSE Arms .68 -56.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.24 -1.59%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 379.57 +.73%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.66 +.43%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.27 -1.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 181.76 -.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 36.85 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 9.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.0 +.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.99 +.53%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  • Yield Curve 120.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 121.0 USD/Metric Tonne +3.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.8 +9.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -59.7 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.7 +2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 97.6% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 240 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -2/100K people
  • 45% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +289 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -264 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +61 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -2.3% 2) Video Gaming -1.2% 3) Robotics -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DMTK, EDIT, ATRA, AFRM, BCRX, LCID, TLRY, GRTS, UTZ, BAND, REKR, PDSB, NFE, LZ, APR, ZYXI, SLGC, LMND, TDUP, CHPT, PRCH, COMP, SWAV, SGFY, QDEL, REGN, PDCE, XMTR, ORMP, LYEL, UPST, RLAY, FLGT, RXRX, MRNA, INT, MRVI, DVAX, NVAX, GH, IRNT, VIR and ADGI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MRK 2) XLB 3) EGHT 4) GOGO 5) NVAX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SPIR 2) NVAX 3) INT 4) MRNA 5) VIR
Charts:

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +1.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +4.6% 2) Gambling +4.3% 3) Shipping +2.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AVIR, METC, SBTX, SPWR, MRK, CDXS, CF, LAUR, LYV, ULCC, IFF, NEO, GOGO, HLT, RNG, FUN, HWM, AMTX and FIVN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HLT 2) MAT 3) XME 4) INOV 5) MRK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AVIR 2) BTBT 3) NAT 4) CDXS 5) PROG

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running +2.6% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
  • 48.7% of Issues Advancing, 47.4% Declining
  • 40 New 52-Week Highs, 64 New Lows
  • 54.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 42.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,782.0 -62.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,455 -.31%
  • Vix 23.2 +.13%
  • Total Put/Call .99 -5.7%
  • TRIN/Arms .96 -38.5%