Monday, November 29, 2021

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Diminished US Virus Lockdown Fears, Technical Buying, Seasonality, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.1 -22.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,561.0 +550.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.18 -.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 -.18%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 n/a
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0  +2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .88 -4.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -14.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.68 -2.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 424.58 -1.3%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.54 -3.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 129.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.5 +.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 209.78 -4.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.9 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 23.5 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  67.5 -1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.89 -.77%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 99.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.40 USD/Metric Tonne +3.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.9 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -11.9 +2.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.7 +2.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 +1.0 basis point
  • 97.5% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 82.4% chance of no change at March 16th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 157 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -31/100K people
  • 30% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -5.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +151 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -83 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +54 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/transport/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -1.6% 2) Tobacco -1.3% 3) Social Media -.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BBY, OMP, EBS, CRWD, DMYQ, ARCT, BYSI, U, TDOC, AXNX, MRK, HOOD, XAIR and THRX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KRYS 2) ATOS 3) BKLN 4) XI 5) MTG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GEF 2) EAR 3) HYZN 4) ZME 5) BECN
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +2.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +3.5% 2) Computer Services +2.5% 3) Alt Energy +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ADGI, VIR, MRNA, RRD, DOCS, AUR, GCP, BERY, AOSL, GOEV, CUBI, PSTG, CUBI, HTZ, GNK, ASLE, CHGG, CLMT, EXPE, PRAX, INCY, NVDA, MAR, CPE, PDCO, CRM, ADSK, RCL, CARS, HPQ, MCO, SAVE, TIL and RMBS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) JCI 2) NRXP 3) HTA 4) ALDX 5) KRYS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LI 2) CHGG 3) AMBA 4) ZS 5) HAL

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +11.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 8 Sector Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 48.6% of Issues Advancing, 47.8% Declining
  • 18 New 52-Week Highs, 82 New Lows
  • 49.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 41.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,365.0 +350.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,693 +1.3%
  • Vix 24.9 -12.9%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -8.7%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.19 -16.2%

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          
Fox News:     
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Reuters:
  • South Africa has administered at least 25,238,789 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 21.6% of the country’s population(one of world's lowest rates). COVID-19 infections are slightly increasing in South Africa, with 3,862 new infections reported on average each day(46 infections per 100K people reported last 7 days). That’s 19% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on July 7.
Nature: 
  • Why US coronavirus tracking can’t keep up with concerning variants. (April 7) Laboratories supported by the US government have doubled the rate at which they are sequencing SARS-CoV-2 genomes over the past two months. Still, the number of genomes that the country shared in the online genome repository GISAID in March represented only 1.6% of its positive COVID-19 cases that month.
TheGatewayPundit.com:
EuroWeekly:
Our World in Data:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.25 +4.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 53.75 +3.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.30 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,111.0 +97.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.7 -11.0%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.7%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.77%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.03%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (FRO)/-.16
  • (KFY)/1.37
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a -2.3% decline in Sept.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Nov. is estimated to rise to 19.0 versus 14.6 in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Australia Retail Sales report, Credit Suisse Tech Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference and the Stephens Investment Conference could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, November 27, 2021

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:         
Reuters:
  • South Africa has administered at least 25,238,789 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 21.6% of the country’s population(one of world's lowest rates). COVID-19 infections are slightly increasing in South Africa, with 3,862 new infections reported on average each day(46 infections per 100K people reported last 7 days). That’s 19% of the peak — the highest daily average reported on July 7.
Nature: 
  • Why US coronavirus tracking can’t keep up with concerning variants. (April 7) Laboratories supported by the US government have doubled the rate at which they are sequencing SARS-CoV-2 genomes over the past two months. Still, the number of genomes that the country shared in the online genome repository GISAID in March represented only 1.6% of its positive COVID-19 cases that month.
Our World in Data:
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
EuroWeekly:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):