Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,642.37 -1.2%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 35,763.35 -1.4%

• NASDAQ 14,803.30 -1.4%

• Russell 2000 2,146.60 -2.4%

• S&P 500 High Beta 78.97 -.58%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 257.22 -3.8%

• Wilshire 5000 47,094.07 -1.4%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,884.32 -2.0%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,663.88 -.71%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 802.79 -.77%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,398.21 -.62%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,145.74 -.6%

• Transports 15,826.09 -3.1%

• Utilities 951.32 -2.0%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 86.09 +2.9%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 50.04 +2.1%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,485.97 +.28%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 927.99 -.14%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 483,737 +.14%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -72 +740

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.98 -.91%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 332,825 -1.66%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,887,131 +1.06%

• Total Put/Call 1.09 +14.7%

• OEX Put/Call 2.49 +50.0%

• ISE Sentiment 97.0 +1.0 point
  

• NYSE Arms .62 +22.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,427.0 -72.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 4.34 -.34%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 20.3 +12.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.3 +15.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.2 +1.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.95 -4.0%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,794.61 +2.6%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.674 Trillion -.60%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -6.017 Million

• AAII % Bulls 24.9 -24.1%

• AAII % Bears 38.3 +15.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 242.90 +2.1%

• Crude Oil 83.8 +6.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 242.02 +5.2%

• Natural Gas 4.23 +8.3%

• Heating Oil 263.2 +5.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 189.75 (1,000/metric ton) +4.8%
  

• Gold 1,818.55 +1.1%
• Silver 22.94 +2.2%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 516.71 +2.57%

• Copper 443.05 +.59%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 465.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.09%

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Lumber 1,313.20 +7.5%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,353.51 -.84%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 680.0 USD/Short Ton -.5%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +6.8% +.1 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.7% -.4 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 6.1 -13.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 56.4 -61.3%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 223.69 +.28%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.9 -6.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.9 -4.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.5 +2.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 94.4%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 5.6%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of rate hike on 1/26

• US Dollar Index 95.19 -.58%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,741.65 +.56%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 43,052 +1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.12 -.89%
  

• Yield Curve 81.0 -3.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.77% +25.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.750 Trillion +.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11.79 +.86%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 111.33 +9.76%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -4.0 basis point
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.18 +10.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 223.19 +4.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.89 -3.9%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.43 +.74%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 177.41 +42.9%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.75 -2.5%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47% -4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 12.0 -2.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 53.74 +2.6%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 339.0 +9.5%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.99 +2.8%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 213.74 +9.2%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 84.5 +7.25 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 72.25 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.1 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,047.50 -2.5%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 210,750 +3.1%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% -.2 percentage point
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 27.9 +58.8% 

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.45% +23.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 580,600 +1.4%

• Langer Consumer Comfort 41.9 -3.7 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +14.4% -2.9 percentage points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -27.9% -55.6 percentage points

• Nationwide Gas $3.31/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,873 -18.2%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,489.9 +1.7%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 174.30 -1.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 230,741 +21.7%
• TSA Total Travelers 1-Year Ago Same Weekday 1,650,795 n/a
• US Covid-19:  1,662 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). At peak +393/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions at peak per 100K +24.5% from prior 7-day avg. of 12/29/21-1/4/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -3.8%
  

Leading Sectors

• Oil Service +6.5%

• Energy +5.1%
  

• Paper +3.9%

• Homebuilding +3.3%

• Gold & Silver +2.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Road & Rail -3.4%
  

• Gambling -3.7%

• Alt Energy -5.5%

• Restaurants -5.6%

• Retail -5.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (0)

• None of note
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (48)

• ROP, BLK, SHW, LAW, RVT, VMC, AWK, NVTA, ROST, DG, GS, AZEK, RH, AMC, EL, SRG, CWH, CNXC, HUBS, NVAX, FRC, TREX, RKT, SQ, NTRA, TXG, ERAS, BCAB, HZO, WRBY, SANA, BURL, CONN, KYMR, XPOF, ALXO, DKNG, GME, MTTR, PACB, CVNA, ONEM, CTRN, DOCN, SKIN, PWP, RVLV, SAM and BRLT
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Global Virus Lockdown/Mandate Concerns, Retail/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.4 +.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,432.0 +27.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.11 -.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.95 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.0 +2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0  +1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call 1.09 +17.2%

• NYSE Arms .72 -31.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.79 +1.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.48 -.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.08 +2.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 +4.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 213.74 +3.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.72 -1.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.25 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  84.0 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.27 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 81.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.90 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.90 -13.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.9 -.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.5 +1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +1.0 basis point
  
• 13.9%(-10.4 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 8.1%(-.8 percentage point) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,662 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). At new peak +20/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population at new record high +20.5%(-4.0 percentage points) from prior 7-day avg. of 12/30/21 - 1/5/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +101 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my transport/industrial/tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 27.2% of Issues Advancing, 69.2% Declining
• 48 New 52-Week Highs, 130 New Lows
• 54.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,345.0 -56.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,943 +.06%
  
• Vix 21.0 +3.3%
• Total Put/Call 1.02 +9.7%
• TRIN/Arms .78 -25.7%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Xi Reshapes China Property Market Paving Way for State Dominance.  
• Asia Stocks Decline as Fed Hawks Spur Nasdaq Rout: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Heads for Fourth Weekly Advance as Traders Shrug Off Omicron.  
• Trucking, Farming, Heating Will Get More Costly as Diesel Surges.
• ‘We’re Overwhelmed:’ Nurses Strike Across the U.S. to Protest Covid Working Conditions.
  
• U.S. Truckers Near Deadline to Get Shots or Be Barred by Canada.
• Biden Suffers Political Setback With Scant Hope for Voting Bills.
• America’s Political Future (Still) Hinges on Georgia.
• Omicron Wave May Have Peaked in Boston, Sewage Data Show.  
• Teen Cyber Prodigy Stumbled Onto Flaw Letting Him Hijack Teslas.
• Henry Kaufman, 1970s Wall Street Dr. Doom, Blasts Powell on Inflation.  
• IRS Targets Your Side Hustle in Crackdown on Transactions Over $600.  
• Treasury Market Stages Reprieve Rally as Yield Surge Lures Cash.  
• Fed’s Waller Says Three 2022 Rate Hikes ‘Still a Good Baseline’.  
• Top Democrat Targets Scaramucci’s SkyBridge, Others in Opportunity-Zone Probe.

Wall Street Journal:

• One of the World’s Dirtiest Oil Patches Is Pumping More Than Ever.
• Student-Loan Processor Navient to Cancel $1.7 Billion of Debts.
• Fed’s Brainard Says Reducing Inflation Is Top Priority.
  
• A Split Supreme Court Decision on Vaccine Mandates. At least the Justices struck down OSHA’s overreach on private employers.
• Biden’s Operation Snail Speed on Covid Therapies. Less than 1% of $1.9 trillion in last March’s relief cash went for treatments. 
• These TikTok Stars Made More Money Than Many of America’s Top CEOs.
• Truckers Fret Over Pending Covid-19 Rules at U.S.-Canada Border.

Fox News:

• Alleged cold-blooded killer's warpath moments before deadly rampage  
• Biden's failure to anticipate Taliban Afghanistan takeover, omicron spread shows 'inability to lead': GOP.
• Steve Forbes torches Biden's remarks on economy, jobs: They're 'standing in the way' of recovery.

CNBC.com:

• Supreme Court blocks Biden Covid vaccine mandate for businesses, allows health-care worker rule.
• Fed’s Harker calls for ‘action on inflation,’ sees 3 or 4 rate hikes likely this year.
• What Delta Air Lines predicts for business travel after the omicron variant.
• Ford’s market cap tops $100 billion for first time.
• Profits for S&P 500 companies rose 22% in the fourth quarter and nearly 50% in 2021, estimates show.
• Queen Elizabeth strips Prince Andrew’s remaining royal affiliations as he fights Epstein accuser suit.
• Mastercard CEO says spending trends look ‘relatively positive’ so far in 2022 after strong holiday.

MarketWatch:    

• ‘There’s no way the stock market goes up this year, it probably goes down pretty aggressively,’ says hedge-fund honcho Kyle Bass.
  
• Bad news for home buyers: Mortgage rates soar to highest level since March 2020.

Zero Hedge:

• Supreme Court Blocks Biden's OSHA Vaxx Mandate.
• Global Economy Heading For "Mother Of All" Supply Chain Shocks As China Locks Down Ports.
• Helicopter Operations May Be Affected By Nationwide 5G Rollout.
• Texas, Florida Residents Can Pat Themselves On The Back.
• World's Largest Asset Manager: Central Banks Are Trapped As They Can't Fight Supply-Driven Inflation.
• Some Good News: Rents Have Finally Peaked As Rental Market Enters "Widespread Cooldown".
• China Sends A Message With Weakest Yuan Fixing Relative To Expectations In Over A Month.
• US Hits N.Korea With More Sanctions As Kim Hails Tests Of Hypersonic Nuclear "War Deterrent".
• Revenue At Goldman's Commodity Desk Soars To Highest In A Decade, Setting Up Partners For Massive Bonuses.
• In His Last Comment As Fed Vice Chair, Clarida Echoes Brainard, Says Rate Hikes Coming.
• Bipartisan Lawmakers Float Stock Trading Bans For Members Of Congress.
• Nationwide Surge In Deaths Among People Aged 18-49: A State By State Overview.
• Capitalism And Common Sense Will End Vaccine Mandates In 2022.
• Bitcoin, Breakevens, & Big-Tech Breakdown As Inflation Batters Bond Bears.

Newsmax: 

• Rep. Norman: Biden's Inflation Makes Jimmy Carter 'Look Like a Hero'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• Roberts and Kavanaugh Side with Lefties, Allow Healthcare Worker Vax Mandate to Stand.
• Jan. 6 Committee Subpoenas Twitter, Reddit, Google and Facebook to See ‘How the Spread of Misinformation Contributed to Capitol Attack’.
• Psaki Refuses to Condemn Video from Iran’s Supreme Leader That Depicts the Assassination of President Trump (VIDEO).
• Tragic: 38-Year-Old Athlete Dies after Suffering Heart Attack During Swim Portion at Ironman 70.3 Pucon (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Vows to Go to War with State Legislatures After Sinema and Manchin Blow Up His Bid to Kill the Filibuster (VIDEO).
• Sinema Deals Fatal Blow to Democrats’ ‘Voting Rights’ Bill Two Days After Biden Calls on Senate to Nuke Filibuster (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: OathKeepers Founder and President Stewart Rhodes Arrested — Charged with Seditious Conspiracy a Year Following Jan. 6 Protests.
• “It Has to Stop” – Joe Biden Tells Social Media Companies to “Deal with” Covid “Misinformation and Disinformation” (VIDEO).
• BOOM! Only 31% of Americans Trust Megalomaniac Dr. Fauci After His Many Proven Lies on COVID Origins and Effective Treatments.
• After Firing Unvaxxed Healthcare Workers, California Tells Covid-Positive Medical Workers to Stay on the Job.
• Investigation Launched After 13-Year-Old Brazilian Girl Dies – Mother Blames Pfizer Vaccine.

The Epoch Times:

• China Underreporting COVID-19 Death Rate by 17,000 Percent, Economist Says.

Twitter: 

• @Krommsan - In case anyone missed their beloved #PfizerCEO say the quiet parts out loud… Pfizer CEO: “Two doses of the vaccine offers very limited protection, if any. 3 doses with a booster offer reasonable protection against hospitalization and deaths. Less protection against infection.” (video)
• @The_Real_Fly - THIS IS AMERICA. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 715,856 Reports(+6,773 from prior week) Through December 31, 2021.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.25 +3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 45.5 +2.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.24 -.02%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,250.0 -150.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.2 +.48%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.92%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BLK)/10.11
• (C)/1.66
• (FRC)/1.94
• (JPM)/3.05
• (WFC)/1.00
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in Nov.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in Nov.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.0% gain in Nov.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in Nov.
• Capacity Utilization for Dec. is estimated to rise to 77.0% versus 76.8% in Nov.
• Manufacturing Production for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Nov.

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for Jan. is estimated to fall to 70.0 versus 70.6 in Dec.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations is estimated at +4.8% versus +4.8% in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Jan. and the Eurozone CPI report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.