Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 49.6% of Issues Advancing, 46.9% Declining
• 96 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 45.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,560.0 -35.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,783 -.61%
  
• Vix 19.5 +3.0%
• Total Put/Call .77 -17.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 +9.7%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.25 -9.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 57.25 -4.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.32 -.29%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,512.0 -84.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.7 +.67%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%.

• S&P 500 futures -.13%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (FIVE)/2.48
• (PAYX)/1.05
• (MSM)/1.23
• (BNTX)/7.15
  

After the Close:

• (PATH)/.03

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for March is estimated to fall to 450K versus 475K in Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,530,560 barrels versus a -2,508,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,216,440 barrels versus a -2,948,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,348,560 barrels versus a -2,071,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.36% versus a +.7% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German Import Price report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, HC Wainwright Gene Editing/Therapy Conference, (CR) investor conference and the (FIVE) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Higher on Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, Quarter-End Short-Covering, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.0 -3.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,511.0 +136.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.15 -.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.5 -.39% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +29.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 +11.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.34 +34.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.28 -4.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 361.18 -.62%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.40 -8.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 148.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.76 -5.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 219.65 -5.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.44 +.60% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 2,526.07 -17.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 -6.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 43.0 -3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -3.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  112.0 -7.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.58 +.08%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.57 +1.65%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .52% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 4.0 -7.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 154.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.5 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.9 -1.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.7 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.88 -8.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 62 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.6%(+.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +79 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Global Supply Lines Brace for ‘Menacing’ Economic Storm to Widen.
  
• NATO Allies Are Split on Whether They Should Talk to Putin.
• Ukraine Update: Kyiv Sets Out ‘Minimum’ Goal From Russia Talks.  
• World Moves From Shortages to Possible Glut of Covid-19 Vaccines.
  
• Traders Ready for More BOJ Bond Intervention, Big Yen Swings.
• The Yen's Plunge Is a Dilemma of Japan's Own Making.
  
• Stocks Climb Amid Oil Slide as Traders Await Talks: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Extends Losses on China Demand Concerns Ahead of OPEC+ Meet.
• U.S. Army Proposes to Cut Its Troop Numbers Below 1 Million.  
• Fed Factory Surveys Show Pickup in Inflation Expectations.
  
• Soaring Prices Are Changing the Way People Eat.  
• GameStop Rides Meme-Stock Revival for Longest Rally Since 2010.  
• Austin Airport Warns of Jet-Fuel Shortage as It Sees a Rush of Travelers.

 Wall Street Journal:

• Ukraine Counterattacks to Retake Territory Ahead of Talks.
• Latest Updates: Biden Says Putin Remark Wasn’t Call for Regime Change.
• Secret World of Pro-Russia Hacking Group Exposed in Leak.
• U.S. to Probe Tariff-Dodging Claim Against Chinese Manufacturers.
• Ukraine War Increases Risk of Debt Defaults by Developing Countries.
• U.S. Healthcare Spending Growth Slowed in 2021 After Covid-19 Surge.

CNBC.com:

• The bond market is flashing a warning sign a recession may be coming.
• Biden’s 2023 budget would hike taxes on the ultra-rich and corporations, boost defense spending.

 MarketWatch:  

• Apple stock just accomplished something for the first time in more than a decade.
  
• FedEx founder Fred Smith steps down as CEO.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden DOJ Kills Trump-Era Program To Catch Chinese Spies.
• Days After Biden Hailed NATO As "More United Than Ever", A Split Emerges Over Talking To Putin.
• California State University Drops SAT Test As 'Too Stressful'.
• Unprecedented Permanent Security Forum Opens With Israel & 4 Arab States United Against Iran.
• Dumbphone Sales Are Soaring As People Revolt Against "Overwhelming" Smartphones.
• Republicans Plan To Investigate Hunter Biden Laptop Story: Issa.
• Soaring Cotton Prices Could Mean Clothing Is About To Get More Expensive.
• Record Pentagon Budget Includes $6.9BN For European Deterrence Initiative & $682M To Assist Ukraine.
• "I'm A Wartime General" - Mayor Adams Pledges To Tackle Crime Wave That Has Turned NYC Into A "Laughingstock".
• "Gradually, ...Then Suddenly!".
• More Massive MOVEs.
• Federal Pressure On Big Tech To Censor COVID-19 'Misinformation' Violates Constitution: Lawsuit.
• Calm Before The Storm?
• Oil, Gold, Yen, & Yield-Curve Slapped Lower; Ruble & Crypto 'Rock'et Higher.

Newsmax: 

• Disney Vows to Fight Florida's Parental Rights Law; 'Should Never Have Been Signed'.  
• Irpin Mayor: Ukrainians Retake Captured City.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• China Is Not the Only Country to Face Financial Woes In the Property Management Arena, Now Commercial Property in the US is Uncertain.
• “You’re Asking Me to Do What?” – Madison Cawthorn Talks about the ‘DC elites’ Having Orgies and Doing Cocaine (VIDEO).
• Steve Cortes Warns Inverted Yield Curve Shows Deep Biden Recession Around the Corner.
• New Study by John Lott Jr. Reveals Biden Received More than 225,000 Excess Votes in 2020 Election.
• New Jersey Middle School Forced 12 yr Olds to Learn About Transgender Hormone Therapy without Parental Consent.
• VIDEO: Chuck Grassley Reveals Financial Links Between the Chinese Communist Party and Hunter and James Biden on Senate Floor — And Brings the Receipts.
• Biden’s Secretary of State Blinken has Family Ties with George Soros.

The Epoch Times:

• Pompeo: US Should Label China as ‘Adversary’ Rather Than ‘Competitor’ in Recognition of Growing CCP Threats.

Twitter: 

• @IntelRogue - More video of Russian forces in Mariupol with a BRM-1K and a tank. (video)
• @bennyjohnson - Kayleigh McEnany EXPOSES what Hunter Biden secret laptop is REALLY about— this will give you CHILLS. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 795,782 Reports(+7,159 from prior week) Through March 18th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.5 -1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.68 -.04%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,360.0 -12.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.1 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.71%.

• S&P 500 futures -.1%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ASO)/1.43
• (CONN)/.48
• (MKC)/.62
  

After the Close:

• (CALM)/.83
• (CHWY)/-.08
• (LULU)/3.27
• (MU)/1.98
• (PRGS)/.85
• (PVH)/2.00
• (RH)/5.59
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.2% gain in Dec.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +1.46% gain in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March is estimated to fall to 107.0 versus 110.5 in Feb.
• JOLTS Job Openings for Feb. is estimated to fall to 11000K versus 11263K in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, 7Y T-Note auction, Australia retail sales report, Canaccord Tech 2022 and the (EZPW) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish at Session Highs on Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Medical Sector Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.0 +.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,285.0 -38.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.73 +1.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.4 +2.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.5 -.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 -6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 +11.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 +82.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.11 -1.06%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 363.28 -.28%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.75 -1.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 153.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.64 -.16%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 233.42 -2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.46 +.88% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,048.72 -7.1%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 46.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  119.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.53 +.24%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.71 +.53%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .53% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 11.5 -8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 154.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.9 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.3 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.0 -4.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.96 -2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 63 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.9%(-1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +111 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +54 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.5% 2) Gold & Silver -2.8% 3) Banks -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IMUX, KMT, CYXT, METC, PLL, CCCC, SYF, VIR, TALO, HSC, PAA, IPI, WIRE, ANDE, LNG, ONL, MOS, MCW, SHLS, NCNO, OLLI, LEU, ROCC, GFS, DISCA, SNBR, ARRY, MUR, HGTY, ACAD, GTLS and AMLX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HYMC 2) EWJ 3) HPQ 4) XLV 5) DBD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RETA 2) CLVR 3) NMTC 4) VLTA 5) SNBR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume