Friday, April 29, 2022

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 30.9 +2.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,173.0 -5.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.72 -.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.1 -.74%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 51.4 +.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -1.0 point
  • Total Put/Call 1.20 +6.2%
  • NYSE Arms .91 +33.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.0 +2.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.02 -.45%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.92 +2.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.67 -1.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 284.88 +5.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.30 +.46%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 3,707.59 -83.6%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 46.0 +3.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 +2.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.70 -.30%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.53 +.43%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .83% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 18.25(2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 145.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.73%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.4 +2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.1 -3.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.3 +2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 unch.
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 115 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +2/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -91.0%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -139 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -61 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary/industrial/commodity sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +1.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 27.5% of Issues Advancing, 68.7% Declining
  • 16 New 52-Week Highs, 98 New Lows
  • 33.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 38.5% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,187.0 +10.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,701 -.64%
  • Vix 30.3 +1.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.18 +4.4%
  • TRIN/Arms .73 +7.4%

Thursday, April 28, 2022

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:     
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.0 -1.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS  77.5 -2.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.31 +.01%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,176.0 -3.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.3 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.6%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.3%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ABBV)/3.14
  • (AB)/.84
  • (AZN)/1.68
  • (B)/.40
  • (BLMN)/.74
  • (BMY)/1.89
  • (CRI)/1.39
  • (CBOE)/1.68
  • (CHTR)/6.66
  • (CVX)/3.44
  • (CL)/.75
  • (XOM)/2.23
  • (HON)/1.86
  • (LYB)/3.55
  • (MGA)/1.10
  • (NWL)/.27
  • (PSX)/1.27
  • (WY)/1.23
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Employment Cost Index for 1Q is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.0% gain in 4Q.
  • Personal Income for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in February.
  • Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.2% gain in February.
  • The PCE Core MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in February.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to fall to 62.0 versus 62.9 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German GDP report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Close on Earnings Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.2 -10.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,314.0 +533.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.45 +1.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +5.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.2 -4.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +3.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.17 +3.5%
  • NYSE Arms .56 -22.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.1 -2.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.17 -.89%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 99.72 +1.95%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 181.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.11 -1.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 270.20 -.93%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.13 -.05%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22,616.70 +18.6%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 +3.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 42.75 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  121.0 -1.0 basis point
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.74 -.32%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.32 -.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .81% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 20.5(2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 141.65 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -25.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.7 -1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.3 +4.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 +9.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 113 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.0%(+1.0 percertage point) of 1/14 peak +5/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -91.2%(+.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +560 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -7 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +155 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer discretionary/industrial/commodity sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long

Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:   
Zero Hedge:
 Newsmax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
The Epoch Times:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.75 +1.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS  79.75 -1.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.37 -.01%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,760.0 -17.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.9 -3.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.63%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.09%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (MO)/1.09
  • (AEP)/1.20
  • (BAX)/.81
  • (BC)/2.33
  • (CAT)/2.60
  • (CMCSA)/.81
  • (DISH)/.75
  • (DPZ)/3.08
  • (LLY)/2.30
  • (FCN)/1.44
  • (GWW)/6.12
  • (HSY)/2.10
  • (IP)/.56
  • (IRM)/.71
  • (JKS)/.49
  • (KDP)/.33
  • (LH)/6.01
  • (MA)/2.16
  • (MCD)/2.17
  • (MRK)/1.83
  • (NOC)/5.98
  • (BTU)/2.20
  • (PHM)/1.73
  • (RS)/7.18
  • (SIRI)/.08
  • (SAH)/2.37
  • (LUV)/-.30
  • (SWK)/1.70
  • (STRA)/.74
  • (TROW)/.76
  • (TWTR)/.02
After the Close:
  • (AMZN)/8.50
  • (AAPL)/1.43
  • (BZH)/1.05
  • (FSLR)/-.44
  • (GILD)/1.81
  • (INTC)/.79
  • (KLAC)/4.82
  • (MHK)/2.91
  • (OLN)/2.34
  • (RMAX)/.50
  • (HOOD)/-.36
  • (SKYW)/-.01
  • (SYK)/1.94
  • (TEX)/.47
  • (TRUP)/-.02
  • (X)/2.95
  • (WDC)/1.49
  • (ZEN)/.15
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • 1Q GDP is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +6.9% gain in 4Q.
  • 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.5% versus a +2.5% gain in 4Q.
  • The GDP Price Index for 1Q is estimated to rise +7.2% versus a +7.1% gain in 4Q.
  • The Core PCE QoQ for 1Q is estimated to rise +5.5% versus a +5.0% gain in 4Q.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 180K versus 184K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1399K versus 1417K prior.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to 35.0 versus 37.0 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German CPI report, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.