Friday, July 29, 2022

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 Index 3,141.55 +4.2%






















Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 32,867.90 +2.9%
  • NASDAQ 12,390.90 +4.6%
  • Russell 2000 1,884.41 +4.3%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 67.8 +5.4%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 194.74 -.51%
  • Wilshire 5000 41,522.0 +4.1%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,202.94 +4.8%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,518.58 +3.3%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 773.27 +1.55%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,118.55 -.52%
  • NYSE Technology 2,968.50 +2.5%
  • Transports 14,618.09 +5.8%
  • Utilities 1,025.04 +6.6%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 109.66 -4.6%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.76 +.83%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,433.96 +.45%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 907.71 -.05%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 459,547 +.93%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -99 +54
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.6 -.96%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 271,091 +1.0%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,577,616 -2.18%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 -2.8%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.23 -5.7%
  • ISE Sentiment 76.0 -13.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.18 -31.3
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,600.0 -367.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 2.84 -.77%
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.4 -7.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .80% -47.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.9 +2.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.3 -4.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.0 -.8%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 15,358.54 +3.8%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.590 Trillion +.16%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.097 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 27.7 -6.4%
  • AAII % Bears 41.0 -5.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 289.02 +2.8%
  • Crude Oil 98.58 +4.4%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 336.63 +7.1%
  • Natural Gas 8.26 -.96%
  • Heating Oil 360.43 +4.9% 
  • Newcastle Coal 418.5 (1,000/metric ton) +12.2%
  • Gold 1,766.05 +2.1%
  • Silver 20.26 +8.7%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 428.48 +1.77%
  • Copper 357.70 +7.3%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 388.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.77%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.35 USD/Metric Tonne +7.3%
  • Lumber  525.60 -10.3%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,486.78 +6.1%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 725.0 USD/Short Ton -2.7%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.1% n/a
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -12.0% -1.1 percentage points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 40.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.1 -1.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 105.19 +10.2%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.46 -.12%: Growth Rate 19.2% n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.8 +2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.9 +28.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.3 +5.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of +25.0 basis point rate hike, 72.0% chance of +50.0 basis point hike, 28.0% chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 9/21
  • US Dollar Index 106.0 -.46%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,658.38 +.55%
  • Bitcoin/USD 23,860.0 +4.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.08 -2.1%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -25.5 -3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.63% -12.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.854 Trillion -.11%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.43 -.37%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 200.79 -.04%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 221.0 -7.5 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.11 -11.5%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 274.21 -8.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.21 -1.5%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.79 -11.9%
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,640.28 +1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.79 +.7%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.53% +19.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 46.0 +7.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 +3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 +3.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 80.24 -6.3%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 333.0 -11.0%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 110.35 -5.3%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 325.53 -8.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 114.0 -23.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 49.02 +.25%
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.0 +5.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 5.9 -.3 percentage point
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,149.60 -1.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 249,250 +2.6%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 44.68 +1.4% 
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 5.40% -40.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 276,000 -1.8%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +13.6% -.2 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +.9% +7.8 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $205.0M -38.7%
  • Nationwide Gas $4.26/gallon -.15/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,935 -9.4%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,188.61 -1.4%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 +7.7%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 66.78 -20.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 266,336 -1.0%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,392,009 +9.6%
  • US Covid-19:  280 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 16.1%(n/a) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) +n/a/100K people from prior report
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -70.5%(n/a) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +4.4%.
Worst Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Value +3.0%
Leading Sectors
  • Alt Energy +12.2%
  • Oil Service +11.5%
  • Networking +9.3%
  • Energy +8.9%
  • Steel +8.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Pharma -.2%
  • Social Media -.8%
  • Homebuilding -.9%
  • Retail -1.4%
  • Cyber Security -2.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (18)
  • SLCA, RGP, FSLR, TPIC, SRPT, CVX, GWW, OLN, GWW, SMR, OLN, NTGR, CROX and URI, ULCC, NATI, CRDO, HEI, RUN, LTC and CC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (26)
  • PING, PARA, TFX, PEGA, SWK, FOX, UPWK, FOXA, NVCR, TPB, SAVA, TRUP, BOOT, CCRN, DUOL, CMCSA, SBGI, RVNC, LMND, ICPT, TTD, INTC, RNG, TREE and ROKU
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Commodity/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume:  Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.4 -4.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .8% -58.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,618.0 +80.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.95 -.68%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -1.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.7 +2.7% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +10.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.34 +9.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.42 -.92%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 467.38 -2.4%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 470.0 -14.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 109.47 -4.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 221.0 basis points -14.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.63 -5.66%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 326.82 -3.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.79 +.51%
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,640.28 -2.5%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 basis points unch.
  • TED Spread 44.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 basis points +1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  113.0 -7.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 49.04 +.20%
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.0 +4.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.06 +.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.33% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -25.75 basis points (2s/10s) -5.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.15 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.8 +4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.9 +41.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.3 +4.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.53 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 69.3%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 48.2%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
US Covid-19:
  • 280 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 16.1%(+0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -70.5%(-.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +96 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -66 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial/tech/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure:  75% net long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -7.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 66.6% of Issues Advancing, 29.3% Declining
  • 31 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
  • 25.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.2% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,600.0 +62.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,880.0 +1.1%
  • Vix 21.6 -3.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +7.5%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.28 +4.9%

Thursday, July 28, 2022

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          
Wall Street Journal:    
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
 OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 147.0 -8.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 76.75 -4.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.95 -.09%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,650.0 +112.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.6 -.5%
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.71%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.48%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.17%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ABBV)/3.31
  • (AB)/.71
  • (AON)/2.55
  • (AZN)/1.58
  • (B)/.48
  • (BLMN)/.62
  • (CRI)/1.64
  • (CBOE)/1.69
  • (CERN)/.89
  • (CHTR)/7.12
  • (CVX)/5.03
  • (CHD)/.72
  • (CL)/.71
  • (XOM)/3.89
  • (LYB)/4.70
  • (MGA)/.92
  • (PSX)/5.76
  • (PG)/1.23
  • (WY)/.98
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST:
  • The Employment Cost Index for 2Q is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.4% gain in 1Q.
  • Personal Income for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in May.
  • Personal Spending for June is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.2% gain in May.
  • The PCE Core MoM for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in May.
  • The PCE Core YoY for June is estimated to rise +4.7% versus a +4.7% gain in May.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for July is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 56.0 in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone GDP/CPI reports and the (F) fireside chat could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.