Thursday, February 02, 2023

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +50.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 74.4% of Issues Advancing, 23.0% Declining
  • 166 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Low
  • 66.9%(+7.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +5.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.1 -5.5%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,910.2 +1.3%
  • Vix 17.7 -.8%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -15.7%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.14 -14.9%

Wednesday, February 01, 2023

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                   

Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:                     
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.5 -5.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 49.5 -4.25 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 125.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.8 +.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  59.3 +.04%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 +2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 -.28%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.69%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.23%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.84%.  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ABB)/.42
  • (APD)/2.70
  • (ATI)/.52
  • (APTV)/1.18
  • (AVY)/2.05
  • (BDX)/2.68
  • (BMY)/1.73
  • (GOOS)/1.60
  • (CAH)/1.14
  • (CNHI)/.35
  • (COP)/2.90
  • (LLY)/1.85
  • (EL)/1.29
  • (HBI)/.08
  • (HOG)/.07
  • (HSY)/1.77
  • (HON)/2.51
  • (ITW)/2.53
  • (ICE)/1.26
  • (LEA)/2.58
  • (MRK)/1.54
  • (PH)/4.46
  • (DGX)/1.90
  • (SIRI)/.08
  • (SNA)/4.21
  • (SWK)/-.34
  • (UAA)/.09
After the Close:
  • (GOOG)/1.20
  • (AMZN)/.17
  • (AAPL)/1.95
  • (BZH)/.74
  • (BYD)/1.49
  • (CRUS)/1.99
  • (CLX)/.66
  • (COLM)/2.28
  • (DECK)/9.54
  • (F)/.62
  • (GILD)/1.51
  • (MCHP)/1.54
  • (MSTR)/.98
  • (POST)/.62
  • (QCOM)/2.35
  • (SKX)/.37
  • (SKYW)/.10
  • (SBUX)/.77
  • (SYNA)/2.34
  • (X)/.63
  • (WWE)/.58
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • The Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Jan.
8:30 am EST
  • 4Q Unit Labor Costs are estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +2.4% gain in 3Q.
  • 4Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +2.4% versus a +.8% gain in 3Q.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 195K versus 186K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1684K versus 1675K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Factory Orders for Dec. is estimated to rise +2.3% versus a -1.8% decline in Nov.
  • Factory Orders Ex Transports for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.8% decline in Nov.
  • Final readings on Durable Goods Orders.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB decision, BofE decision, German trade data report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Stagflationary US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Fears, Profit-Taking, Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.9 +2.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.1 -1.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.4 -.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.3 +4.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +11.0 point
  • Total Put/Call .86 -3.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 +153.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.9 +.17%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 361.36 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 317.0 +21.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.4 -1.3% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 355.67 -.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 201.0 basis points +14.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.6 -.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 223.33 +.58%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.98 +.43%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.0 basis points -6.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 +2.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  130.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 107.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .71 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.6 +.25%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% +5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 125.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 59.5 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.8 -4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 101.3 +4.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.7 -5.6 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.01 -1.81:  Growth Rate +.9% -9.0 percentage points, P/E 18.1 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.28% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .32 +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -73.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +.67% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.44% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 84.2%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 54.3%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(-0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.7%(+.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -160 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Energy -3.5% 2) Oil Service -3.5% 3) Airlines -2.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • HLI, TTWO, COF, AZN, NVS, RIVN, MMYT, HESM, WDS, GBX, TS, WDC, CHRD, EAT, BSM, AMGN, KNTK, SPT, CB, IEX, VET, LAC, HES, SYF, JCI, APPS, TRP, MTCH, BFH, EA, HA, VREX and WRK
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SKX 2) APLS 3) KNX 4) RL 5) XLB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SNAP 2) MTCH 3) SYF 4) WDC 5) CB
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Semis +1.8% 2) Electric Vehicles +1.6% 3) Road & Rail +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RPD, LPSN, PTON, SLAB, MRCY, DT, TGTX, DOMO, ATKR, LPG, OI, XM, TENB, SAIA, AI and MO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) APLS 2) EA 3) MAT 4) MVIS 5) THC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MRCY 2) ODFL 3) SYK 4) EBET 5) RNAZ

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -1.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 40.6% of Issues Advancing, 55.9% Declining
  • 86 New 52-Week Highs, 1 New Low
  • 60.6%(+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +1.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.6 -.3%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,541.2 -.03%
  • Vix 19.9 +2.7%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -2.3%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.29 +144.2%