Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Credit Suisse Crisis Nears Finale as UBS Discussions Heat Up.
• Credit Suisse Investment Bank Said a Key Sticking Point in Talks.
• Credit Suisse’s Fate Rests in the Hands of These Power Players.
• Why Credit Suisse ‘CoCo’ Bonds Are Causing Anxiety: QuickTake.
• Credit Suisse Bonds Gain in a Weekend Trading Session.
• Warren Buffett in Contact With Biden Officials on Banking Crisis.
• BlackRock’s Hildebrand Taking Part in UBS, Credit Suisse Talks.
• Bullish Sign Is Flashing for Some as Stocks Skirt the Precipice.
• Apollo’s Slok Says Bank Crisis Will Tip US Into Hard Landing.
• Riskiest Corporate Borrowers Are Left in Lurch by Bank Mayhem.
•  ‘Unknown Unknowns’: No Weekend for Traders as Bank Woes Deepen.
• Doubts Creep In at US Construction’s Big Show in Las Vegas.

Wall Street Journal: 

• UBS Nears Deal to Take Over Credit Suisse.
• The Banking Sector Turmoil in Charts.
• Heard on the Street: Local Banks Could Leave Gaps That Are Hard to Fill.
• The Rise and Fall of Silicon Valley Bank.
• How Higher Rates Caught Up With Banks.
• The Real Price of Wind and Solar. First pay for renewables. Then pay again to pick up all the slack.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (GEHC), (HBAN), (BAC), (JPM), (FITB), (KEY), (MTB), (PNC), (RF) and (USB).

Fox News:

• NHL player makes bold gospel statement after pressure to wear LGBTQ-themed jerseys.
• GOP senator eviscerates soft-on-crime DA for 'never-ending' effort to 'destroy' Donald Trump.
• CNN host's shocking admission about evidence of Chinese money going to Biden family.

CNBC:

• BlackRock denies report that it’s preparing a takeover bid for Credit Suisse.
• Fail or sale? What could be next for stricken Credit Suisse.
• Midsize U.S. banks reportedly ask the FDIC to insure all deposits for two years.
• Icahn proposes three candidates for Illumina’s board — Here’s what could be next in the battle.

Zero Hedge:

• COVID-19 Vaccines Can Cause 'Permanent Disabilities,' Says German Health Minister.
• UBS Seeks $6 Billion Government Backstop As It Rushes To Finalize Credit Suisse Takeover.
• Arab Leaders Offer Syria Billions In Aid, Sanctions Relief If Assad Pushes Back Against Iran.
• Stockman On Washington's Panicked Bailout Of Bank Deposits... Here's What Comes Next.
• Living In Memphis Might Break Paycheck To Paycheck Cycle.
• Stanford Students Demand Journalist Remove Their Names From Stories... After Targeting Other Students By Name.
• Dutch Farmers Storm To Victory In Regional Elections, Set To Become Largest Party In The Senate.
• 60 Percent Of Americans Say China A Bigger Threat Than Russia: Poll.
• ATF Gains Financial Information On Potential Gun Buyers For Warrantless Tracking, Documents Show.
• Microsoft Cuts AI Ethics Team As It Invests Billions More Into AI Technology, Report Says.
• VDH: Are We The Byzantines?
• Macgregor: The Gathering Storm.
• Sweden Bans Non-Woke Funds From $90 Billion Pension Pot.
• SVB Vivifies The Vapidity Of 'Regulatory Failure' and 'Moral Hazard'.
• CNN Reporter Robbed While Covering "Rampant Street Crime" In San Francisco.
• Rogoff Warns 'Things Are Only Getting Harder For The Fed'.
• Please Stop With The Raccoon Dogs.
• How The "Most Anticipated Recession" Is Still Unanticipated.
• SVB's London Bankers Received Up To $36 Million In Bonuses Days After BoE-Orchestrated Bailout.
• Oil Majors Juggle Cheaper Crude With Lower Emissions.
• The Growing Auto Loan Problem Facing Young Americans.
• Is Your Bank "Important" Enough To Save? Don't Count On It...
• Baidu Granted Permits To Operate Humanless Robotaxis In Beijing.
• Half Of Americans Believe Media "Intend To Mislead, Misinform"; New Poll Finds.
• NYC Supermarket "Collects Biometric" Data On Shoppers.
• Gold Prices Reflect A Shift In Paradigm, Part 1.

MarketWatch.com:       

• What it may take to calm banking sector jitters: time, and a Fed rate hike.
• Stock investors are still too bullish for anyone to believe this selloff will spark a strong market rally.
• Stocks look likely to revisit their 2022 low, but SVB’s failure or a banking crisis won’t be the cause.
• Despite market volatility, retail investors went on a buy-the-dip spree. These are the stocks they picked up, says Vanda.

NewsMax:

• Dershowitz: Indictment 'Political Circus' to 'Get Trump'
• McCarthy: Probe Dem Effort to 'Subvert Our Democracy'.
• AG Paxton: Dems 'Weaponized' Legal System.
• Fmr Rep. Peter King: This Is 'Banana Republic Politics'.
• Reaction Suggests Trump Arrest Will Make Him Stronger.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• President Trump Says He Will Be Arrested Tuesday, Calls for Protests.
• Sharon Stone Says She Lost Half Her Money To “This Banking Thing” – Breaks Down In Tears (VIDEO).
• New Soil Testing in East Palestine, Ohio Finds Cancerous Agents Not Detected by EPA Following Toxic Chemical Mushroom Cloud Explosion.
• “The Police State Is Here” – Dan Bongino Rips the Upcoming Trump Arrest (VIDEO).
• Even CNN is Reporting on Biden Corruption After Biden Family Received $1 Million Indirectly From Chinese Company (VIDEO).
• Economic Study: 186 US Banks Are in Trouble and at Risk of Insolvency – May Collapse Like Silicon Valley Bank.

The Epoch Times:

• Chinese Regime Will Face Retribution for COVID-19 Origins, Trump Declares.

Twitter:

• @MikeBenzCyber - Ask yourself why a government-funded social media censorship org — specifically censoring Covid dissidents — would draw its funding from the DOD’s Minerva Initiative. Minerva Initiative is DOD’s program to fund the science of psychological operations.
• @TruthGundlach - Massive de-inversion in the UST yield cure. The two year UST yield minus the ten year UST yield has, in just days, gone from -107 bp to -41 bp. This is highly suggestive of recession very soon.
• @IGSquawk - Weekend markets update: #DAX 14788 +0.14% #DOW 31884 +0.17% #NASDAQ 12529 +0.07% #FTSE 7336 +0.29% #HANGSENG 19276 +0.03% #GBPUSD 12175 -0.06% #EURUSD 10660 -0.05% #USDJPY 13187 +0.02%.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 942,034 Reports(+3,859 from prior week) Through March 3rd, 2023. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• UBS to Explore Credit Suisse Deal in Crisis Combination.
• Credit Suisse Crisis Shines Spotlight on Bank’s ‘Crown Jewel’.
• IMF Changes Lending Rules, Paving Way for Billions for Ukraine.
• LME Rocked by New Nickel Scandal After Finding Bags of Stones.
• Diebold Nixdorf and Lender Talks Continue as Shares Plunge.
• Wait 10 Seconds, Lose $1 Million in Markets Rocked by Volatility.
• Recession, Yes. But Markets Cling to Hope Crisis Will Be Avoided.
• Levinson’s Graticule Macro Hedge Fund to Shutter After Losses.
• Summers Warns Fed Against ‘Financial Dominance,’ Urges Rate Hike.
• FTX Had a Nearly $7 Billion Balance Sheet Hole When it Went Bust.
• Microsoft and Alphabet Have Best Week in Years Amid Bank Turmoil.
• CFA Revised Exam Cuts Study Time, Stresses Practical Skills.
• NYPD, Feds Planning for Possible Trump Charges in Manhattan.
• Transcript: What the Boom in Zero-Day Options Means for Stocks.
• What Is the Fed Discount Window and Why Are Banks Using It So Much?
• What You Need to Know About the Wild Week in Finance.

Wall Street Journal: 

• First Republic Rescue Effort Fails to Ease Investor Worries.
• Biden Seeks More Power to Punish Bank Executives.
• The Tyranny of the DEI Bureaucracy. Diversity, equity and inclusion offices become weapons to intimidate and limit speech.
• While Yellen Assures, Banks Run. The Treasury Secretary’s claim that all is well are belied by the reality at First Republic Bank.
• SVB Financial Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection.
• The Risks That Come With Rescuing Banks.
• Bank Failures, Like Earlier Shocks, Raise Recession Odds.
• ‘It’s Like a Graveyard’: Record Numbers of Migrants Are Dying at the U.S. Border.
• Life Is So Expensive, People Are Nostalgic for 2021.
• Fear of Layoffs Is Changing How People Buy Homes.

Fox News:

• Nation’s second-largest education system braces for possible shutdown.
• Newsom makes abrupt reversal after tough talk on major petroleum companies.

CNBC:

• Dow closes nearly 400 points lower on Friday as First Republic and regional banks resume slide.
• How a TikTok ban in the U.S. might work.
• Fed poised to approve quarter-point rate hike next week, despite turmoil.
• First Republic shares slid almost 33% after deposit infusion, dragging down regional banks.

Zero Hedge:

• USVI Lawsuit Makes Stunning Allegation: Jamie Dimon 'Knew In 2008' That Jeffrey Epstein Was Sex Trafficker.
• "The Fed Is Broke" - Gundlach Likes Gold, Fears "Expanding Wars" Most.
• A Haunting Anniversary - '15 Days To Slow The Spread'.
• Japan, South Korea Are Rebuilding Military Ties, With US Backing.
• Xi To Arrive In Moscow Monday, Ukraine War 'Core Part' Of Talks With Putin.
• The Fed Just Hijacked American Democracy.
• JPM: As Bank Run Drains $550 Billion In Deposits In One Week, QT Is Essentially Over.
• Slovakia Next To Announce Jet Transfer To Ukraine, Coordinating With Poland.
• UBS Reportedly In Talks to Acquire Credit Suisse.
• Investigations Accuse Family Court Judges Of Sending Children Into Danger.
• First Republic Bank Shares Crash To Record Low On Share-Sale Report.
• Goldman: Small, Medium Banks Account For 50% Of C&I Lending, 45% Of Consumer Lending And 80% Of All Commercial Real Estate Lending.
• What a week!
• Stocks and yields hit on banking crisis woes ahead of Fed - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Funny Things Happen On The Way To "Restoring Financial Stability".
• Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Soar As Global Bailouts Fail To Stem Bank-Runs.
• Elon Musk Hits Back At "Protect Trans Kids" Democrat Lieutenant Governor.
• The "Big Short 3" Has Its Best Day Yet.
• "I’m Telling You, He Did It": Seymour Hersh Blames Biden For Nord Stream Attack.
• Blackrock CEO Fink: Oil & Gas Is Vital In Meeting Energy Needs.

MarketWatch.com:       

• From SVB’s sudden collapse to Credit Suisse’s fallout: 8 charts show turbulence in financial markets.
• How to determine if your drinking water is safe as EPA moves to restrict ‘forever chemicals’.
• Why bond-market volatility is at its highest since the 2008 financial crisis amid rolling fallout from banks.

NewsMax:

• 'I'm Back': Trump Returns to YouTube, Facebook After 2-Year Ban.
• Rep. Burchett: Potential 'Ties' Between Bidens, CCP.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• “I’m Not Sure Anyone Should Be Taking Them” – Florida Surgeon General Declares mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Have a “Terrible Safety Profile” (VIDEO).
• EXCLUSIVE: Sam Bankman-Fried Paid Himself Over $2 BILLION and His Team Another $1 BILLION Before Filing for Bankruptcy.
• “John Wick” Star Lance Reddick Dies Unexpectedly at 60.
• House Oversight Seeks Testimony from Hunter Biden Associate Who Distributed Chinese Payments to Four Biden Family Members.
• Utah Mom Unloads On School After Her Daughter Was Given “Gross” Bugs to Eat for “Climate Change” Project (VIDEO).
• Texas Lawmakers Unanimously Pass Bill That Will Allow Fentanyl Dealers To Be Charged With Murder.
• JUST IN: Another Twitter Files Drop: The Great Covid-19 Lie Machine – Stanford, the Virality Project, and the Censorship of “True Stories”.
• WAYNE ROOT: Uniting President Trump & Governor Ron DeSantis Is Our Only Chance To Save America.
• Kamala Harris Roundly Booed While Watching Alma Mater Howard Lose NCAA Tournament Game – Mocked After Embarrassing Postgame Speech to Players (VIDEO).
• STUNNING: Janet Yellen Admits Smaller Regional Midwest Banks Will Not Be Bailed Out – Only Big Banks Deemed Worthy by Biden Regime (VIDEO).
• Criminal: Payments Made to the Biden Family Reported by Oversight Committee Have Direct Link to the Chinese Communist Party.
• OUTRAGEOUS: Biden’s Bailout of Silicon Valley Bank Helped Save Investment Flow to Sensitive Chinese Aerospace and Defense Ventures.

The Epoch Times:

• White House Is ‘Encouraging’ China–Ukraine Talks.
• New Zealand Bans TikTok From Parliamentary Devices, Citing ‘Unacceptable’ Risks.
• Yellen Confirms Chinese, Other Foreign SVB Depositors Will Be Protected.

Twitter:

• @UltraDane - Nothing to see here. Chinese and Russian govt agents can now vote in Washington DC local elections. The law allows foreign nationals working at the Chinese and Russian embassies and those of other foreign nations to vote in local elections.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 942,034 Reports(+3,859 from prior week) Through March 3rd, 2023. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 3,913.1 +1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 31,814.7 -.06%

• NASDAQ 11,607.5 +4.7%

• Russell 2000 1,721.54 -2.5%

• S&P 500 High Beta 66.11 -.82% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 5.94 +2.3%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 135.0 -.33%

• Wilshire 5000 39,133.8 +1.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,337.12 +4.3%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,428.28 -1.5%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 747.74 +1.2%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,109.9 +1.7%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,996.3 +5.3%

• Transports 13,788.4 -2.8%

• Utilities 920.53 +4.0%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.98 -12.0%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 37.6 -.68%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,446.53 -.34%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 923.54 -.31%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 447,738 -.64%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 4.5 -4.3%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -473 -90
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -25.8 +2.9%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 206,901 -3.9%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,755,027 +.28%

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -17.1%

• OEX Put/Call 1.30 +26.6%

• ISE Sentiment 85.0 +18.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.7 -.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 41.3 -24.7%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.73.0 -57.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 25.4 -.28%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.46% -26.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.0 +3.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.54 +4.7%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 11.8 +5.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,577.83 -5.8%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  41.9 -18.2
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.015 Trillion +2.5%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$4.201 Million

• AAII % Bulls 19.2 -22.6%

• AAII % Bears 48.4 +16.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 256.64 -3.2%

• Crude Oil 66.72/bbl. -12.6%

• Reformulated Gasoline 249.9 -5.0%

• Natural Gas 2.34 -2.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.9 euros/megawatt-hour -19.1%
  

• Heating Oil 267.87 -3.1% 
• Newcastle Coal 179.65 (1,000/metric ton) -.69%
  

• Gold 1,978.54 +5.7%
• Silver 22.5 +9.5%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 430.39 -2.4%

• Copper 390.15 -2.5%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 460.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• Lumber  448.50 +7.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,521.87 -.52%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 365.0 USD/Short Ton +.7%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +3.25% +45.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 60.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index .96 +33.3%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 303.9 +195.1%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.83 n/a:  Growth Rate +1.5% n/a, P/E 17.5 
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.36% unch.
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.7 +6.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.4 -11.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 +5.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 31.4%(+31.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 68.6%(+8.8 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.75-5.0% and 0.0%(-40.2 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike to 5.0-5.25% on 3/22
  

• US Dollar Index 103.83 -.74%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,670.48 +.25%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 26,430.8 +23.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.9 -1.8%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -48.0 +41.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.40% -30.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.603 Trillion +3.6%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.7 +1.7%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 183.28 +10.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.0 +14.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.79 +11.9%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.3 +3.4%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 247.14 +8.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 63.68 +24.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.7 -1.7%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.86 -.98%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.6% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +6.3% -60.0 basis points
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +9.5% -60.0 basis points
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Rents YoY 6.15% -7.0 basis points
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% +1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +5.22% -99.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11% -18.0 basis points

• TED Spread 59.75 +33.0 basis points
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.25 -6.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 88.67 +5.6%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 283.0 +16.1% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 448.0 +125.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 128.46 +39.25%
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 1,051.53 +127.9%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 263.45 +8.5%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 634.0 +60.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .72 +14.0 basis points
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -1.7% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,163.4 -1.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 196,500 -.38%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% +10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.1 unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.0% -5.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 214,500 +6.5%

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.8% -20.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +129.5% +121.6 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $150.7M +16.3%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.46/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,560.0 +9.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 992.5 -2.8%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 60.0 +14.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 45.6 -5.9%

• Rail Freight Carloads 229,383 -3.1%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,461,141 +8.0%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +4.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -3.8%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +11.7%

• Software +8.2%
• Internet +6.3%
  

• Semis +5.7%
  

• Video Gaming +5.6%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Alt Energy -6.3%
  

• Energy -7.5%
  

• Airlines 9.2%

• Oil Service -11.9%
  

• Banks -14.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

• MSTR, COIN, FDX, NEM, ACIW, ACLX, SD, PHYS, IAU, COCO, EEFT, GOOG, MSFT, NVDA, ADBE and FHI
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (64)

• BE, FBNC, ING, CHRD, OZK, CSIQ, BC, FFBC, PNC, FITB, AAT, FHN, BHF, QTWO, CAR, HOMB, BOWL, ACDC, URI, HRI, TCBI, FBP, MAXN, SSB, AMLX, HEES, WTFC, ALTG, SFNC, RCKT, PK, TFC, OCFC, HBAN, ZION, TEX, HTZ, VNO, CMA, HALO, EWBC, KW, UMBF, SPWR, KEY, KMT, USB, SNV, SILK, ASB, ENPH, SBGI, SLG, BKU, GTLS, CUTR, RUN, NOVA, WAL, SRPT and FRC
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Global Bank Contagion Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Technical Selling, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.2 +9.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.45%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 42.5 -12.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.2 -.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.9 +9.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.04 +7.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +71.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.4 +3.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 448.77 +7.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 448.0 +8
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 132.4 +10.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 1,051.5 +5.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 195.0 basis basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.8 -2.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 262.2 +2.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.0 +.6%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 51.5 basis points +25.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -30.25 -4.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  157.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 634.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 72.0 +4.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.2 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.37% -28.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 130.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.64%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.7 -7.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.4 -.8 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 -.6 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.83 +.53:  Growth Rate +1.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 17.3 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.36% -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.76 +14.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.25% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 -9.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 56.6%(+16.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 42.5%(+23.4 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -529 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long