S&P 500 987.48 +.84%*
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Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Indices
S&P 500 987.48 +.84%
DJIA 9,171.61 +.86%
NASDAQ 1,978.50 +.64%
Russell 2000 556.71 +1.50%
Wilshire 5000 10,059.19 +.85%
Russell 1000 Growth 438.81 +.31%
Russell 1000 Value 502.32 +1.26%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.13 -.29%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 683.20 +5.49%
Morgan Stanley Technology 493.09 -.23%
Transports 3,579.99 +1.23%
Utilities 369.47 -2.48%
MSCI Emerging Markets 35.95 +2.37%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +45,990 +5.84%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +233 +89.43%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 14.0 -46.15%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +4,576 +106.31%
CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,173,580 +2.07%
Total Put/Call .81 -11.96%
OEX Put/Call 1.98 +83.33%
ISE Sentiment 142.0 +30.28%
NYSE Arms .77 -21.42%
Volatility(VIX) 25.92 +12.26%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.79 -3.18%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,594.05 +1.87%
AAII % Bulls 47.67 +26.78%
AAII % Bears 31.40 -25.94%
Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 257.45 +2.20%
Crude Oil 69.45 +1.97%
Reformulated Gasoline 201.26 +6.42%
Natural Gas 3.65 -4.87%
Heating Oil 183.25 +1.26%
Gold 955.80 +.21%
Base Metals 170.93 +3.88%
Copper 262.35 +3.72%
US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 221.67 USD/Ton +13.68%
China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,180 +2.93%
Agriculture 304.79 +3.88%
Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 119.60 +1.11%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +30.90 -5.21%
Fed Fund Futures imply 80.1% chance of no change, 19.9% chance of 25 basis point cut on 8/12
US Dollar Index 78.35 -.51%
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.48% -18 basis points
U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.0 -11.76%
10-year TIPS Spread 1.77% -11 basis points
TED Spread 30.0 -2 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 110.49 -8.95%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 328.18 -4.41%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-year Treasury Spread 524.0 -3.85%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 559,000 -1.50%
Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 4.70 unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.25% +5 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 495,400 -6.33%
ABC Consumer Confidence -47 +6.0%
Weekly Retail Sales -5.60%
Nationwide Gas $2.52/gallon +.05/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 9.0% above normal
Baltic Dry Index 3,350 +.15%
Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to US Gulf Coast) 27.0 +8.0%
Rail Freight Carloads 193,332 +2.0%
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 66.93 -.18%
Best Performing Style
Small-cap Value +2.27%
Worst Performing Style
Large-cap Growth +.31%
Leading Sectors
Banks +8.36%
HMOs +4.81%
Homebuilders +4.11%
REITs +3.71%
Airlines +3.49%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.30%
Gaming -1.64%
Networking -1.85%
Utilities -2.48%
Oil Service -3.64%
Bloomberg:
Wall Street Journal:
NY Times:
Morningstar:
ocregister:
LA Times:
Washington Post:
NJ.com:
Rassmussen:
AllThingsDigital:
MoneyNews:
Style Underperformer:
Mid-Cap Growth (+.20%)
Sector Underperformers:
Gaming (-2.02%), Biotech (-.95%) and Alt Energy (-.87%)
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
PBI, GENZ, STP, UTHR, DIS, SYNA, GPRO, HMSY, SNCR, CMED, VPRT, MPWR, GENZ, FSLR, ENER, DNB, CEC, PKI, E and AGP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) SYNA 2) VIA/B 3) SWY 4) CMED 5) DIS
Style Outperformer:
Small-Cap Value (+.78%)
Sector Outperformers:
Semis (+1.58%), Homebuilders (+1.53%) and Construction (+1.26%)
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
IRE, TLEO, ITT, UBS, MFE, AIXG, WTFC, BBV, ING, LAD, ABG, HNP, STO, ABAX, OFIX, AMED, POWI, LHCG, GTIV, IRBT, FUQI, GXDX, VSEA, SIRO, RADS, MGLN, ASML, MSTR, BMRN, FORM, SONO, AFAM, SGY, BEC, SNA, WSH, SWM, DW and LAD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) UTHR 2) ZMH 3) HUM 4) SYNA 5) CHKP
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
Wall Street Journal:
NY Times:
Politico:
Hedge Fund Law Blog:
- SEC Approves New Exam for “Limited Representative” Investment Bankers.
AP:
-
Shanghai Securities News:
-
-
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (EXPE), target $25.
BMOCapital:
- Rated (PLCM) Outperform, target $28.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0% to +1.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index unch.
S&P 500 futures +.19%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AGN)/.67
- (AEP).61
- (AN)/.24
- (CVX)/.95
- (CEG)/.76
- (D)/.64
- (HMSY)/.24
- (ITT)/.80
- (MDC)/-.58
- (TOT)/1.00
- (UTHR)/.55
- (WY)/-.71
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- 2Q Advance GDP is estimated to fall 1.5% versus a 5.5% decline in 1Q.
- 2Q Advance Personal Consumption is estimated to fall .5% versus a 1.4% increase in 1Q.
- 2Q Advance GDP Price Index is estimated to rise 1.0% versus a 2.8% gain in 1Q.
- 2Q Advance Core PCE is estimated to rise 2.3% versus a 1.6% gain in 1Q.
- 2Q Advance Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise .3% versus a .3% increase in 1Q.
9:45 am EST
- Chicago Purchasing Manager for July is estimated to rise to 43.0 versus a reading of 39.9 in June.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The NAPM-Milwaukee, (PLCE) shareholders meeting and the (ANR) stockholders meeting could also impact trading today.