Sunday, March 31, 2019

Monday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -2.25 basis points
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.5 -2.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.04 -.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.51%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.66%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.97%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (CALM)/.52
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Jan. 
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in Jan.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.2% gain in Jan.
10:00 am EST
  • The ISM Manufacturing Index for March is estimated to rise to 54.5 versus 54.2 in Feb. 
  • The ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 52.5 versus 49.4 in Feb.
  • Construction Spending MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +1.3% gain in Jan.
  • Business Inventories for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI/CPI reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 -1.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.5 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.06 +.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.30%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (BB)/.06
  • (KMX)/.03
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in Jan.
  • Personal Spending for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in Jan.
  • The PCE Core MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Jan.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for March is estimated to fall to 61.0 versus 64.7 in Feb.
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for Feb. are estimated to rises to 620K versus 607K in Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Quarles speaking, Eurozone CPI report, Brexit Deadline and the Amer. Assoc.  for Cancer Research annual meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Global Growth Fears, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Transport/Gaming Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -1.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.02 -.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.52 +3.25%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.37 -1.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 63.0 -28.4%
  • Total Put/Call .89 -13.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.01 -40.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.83 -2.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 529.0 +.38%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.96 +.65%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 255.5 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.84 -.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 183.70 -2.14%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 160.90 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.09 -.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% unch.
  • Yield Curve 15.25 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 82.25 USD/Metric Tonne -.53%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -40.0 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.70 -4.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.20 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83 -1.0 basis point
  • 28.2% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 36.7% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +172 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +47 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/retail/medical/biotech/tech
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver-3.0% 2) Homebuilding -1.5% 3) Utilities -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • WBC, NLSN, RBZ, TIGR, YETI, KL, SCVL, WIFI, CIM and NSTG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AET 2) NLSN 3) CNC 4) PZZA 5) RH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ARA 2) OSMT 3) PRTO 4) EGY 5) NLSN
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Tobacco +1.4% 2) Gaming +1.2% 3) Alt Energy +.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • QTNA, TCDA, LULU, VRNT, PVH, FIVE, MOV, VFF, AUTL, GTHX, WCG, AMRN, ACN, IYT, TREX, ACIA, ALKS, UBNT, OLLI, ABMD, TTD, TDOC, CNST, FTDR, SNX, FIVE, CCXI and TREX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KNX 2) ARCC 3) TMUS 4) FIVE 5) XRT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PVH 2) LULU 3) MOV 4) VRNT 5) FIVE
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: