Friday, January 31, 2020

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 3,231.16 -1.87%
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 28,305.83 -2.27%
  • NASDAQ 9,177.23 -1.42%
  • Russell 2000 1,617.28 -2.70%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 44.86 -4.53%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 149.33 -4.25%
  • Wilshire 5000 33,007.91 -1.89%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,813.91 -1.46%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,317.53 -2.24%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 649.35 -.72%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,155.26 +.60%
  • NYSE Technology 2,238.99 -2.01%
  • Transports 10,588.11 -4.17%
  • Utilities 937.15 +.47%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.19 -2.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.29 -5.56%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,277.63 -.38%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 944.41 +.16%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 398,915 -.57%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 29 -329
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 26.7 +18.1%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 520,568 -1.84%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,146,832 -3.12%
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 +2.75%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.38 +15.3%
  • ISE Sentiment 70.0 +15
  • NYSE Arms 1.48 -33.8%
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.5 +28.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.78 +5.42%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.46 +9.42%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.79 +11.3%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 15,389.12 -.49%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.621 Trillion -.3%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$3.451 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 32.0 -29.9%
  • AAII % Bears 36.9 +48.8%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 170.31 -3.25%
  • Crude Oil 51.68 -5.44%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 148.87 -1.68%
  • Natural Gas 1.84 -1.91%
  • Heating Oil 162.45 -6.5%
  • Gold 1,585.70 +.86%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 164.30 -5.3%
  • Copper 251.50 -6.2%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 289.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.33 USD/Metric Tonne -10.25%
  • Lumber 437.3 +2.1%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 880.47 -2.1%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.74% +95.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +5.9% +70.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 30.0% unch.
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1257 +9.04%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 179.54 +33.6%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 177.85 +.16%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.6 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.1 -29.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 +11.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 80.8% chance of no change, 19.2% chance of rate cut on 3/18
  • US Dollar Index 97.46 -.42%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,648.85 -.76%
  • Bitcoin/USD 9,296.93 +9.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.60 -.32%
  • Yield Curve 18.0 -5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.53% -15.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.112 Trillion +.13%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 14.88 +.51%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 161.94 -.02%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 -19.75 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.0 +13.8%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 102.82 +1.47%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.68 +3.05%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.02 +17.1%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.09 +4.72%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.91 +.25%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64% -3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 21.75 -5.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 -1.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 49.68 +6.37%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 634.0 +3.13%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.06 +1.07%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 190.91 +1.98%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.982 Trillion +.76%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,119.4 +.4%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 213,250 +1,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.51% -9.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 649.80 +7.19%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 67.3 +1.3 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.3% +20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.49/gallon -.04/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 498.0 -10.6%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 965.31 n/a
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 -20.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 252,965 -3.57%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -1.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -3.0%
Leading Sectors
  • Software +1.2%
  • Utilities +.5%
  • Insurance unch.
  • Computer Services unch.
  • Gold & Silver -.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Networking -7.0% 
  • Steel -7.0%
  • Energy -7.1%
  • Shipping -7.5%
  • Oil Service -8.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (5)
  • VIR, DECK, XLRN, AJG and FII
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (43)
  • RYN, IDXX, EA, SKY, ORLY, CAT, DD, MNRO, CFFN, POL, IP, HON, GFF, OLED, WCC, EBAY, FB, APTS, GWW, PKG, HGV, CVX, UPS, XOM, LPLA, BGR, CMI, NVST, HUN, HQY, NGVT, VLO, KEX, OLN, AMGN, QY, OIS, PSX, CE, BERY, BR, SKYW and WWE
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Coronavirus Fears, Global Growth Concerns, Earnings Outlooks, Commodity/Retail Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.0 +22.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.52 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.79 +1.34%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.0 +7.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 -3
  • Total Put/Call 1.09 +28.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.62 +74.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.93 +4.75%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 627.0 +2.0%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.18 +.64%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 +2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.19 +.81%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 197.21 +2.33%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.91 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.5 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 21.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.25 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.18 -.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .18 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.33 USD/Metric Tonne -2.17%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.60 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.10 -22.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 +7.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63 -1.0 basis point
  • 40.7% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 59.8% chance of cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -495 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -1,101 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -61 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long